Every Monday morning, InsidePulse Movies Czar Scott “Kubryk” Sawitz brings an irreverent and oftentimes hilarious look at pop culture, politics, sports and whatever else comes to mind. And sometimes he writes about movies.
I was actually going to just have a column this week with just a DVD review but then I realized something: Oscar nominations are actually being released this week. I’m used to filing this column in a month or so, at least when most of the small Indies have found their way into theatres in Chicago, so I was shocked the nominations were this early. They’re on Thursday this week, crazy enough, and it’s time to knock out some nominations for the awards I (and nearly everyone else) care about.
My partner in cinematic villainy, Travis “Skip” Leamons, who thinks he’s like Rain Man when it comes to predictions (not when it comes to buying his underwear at K-Mart), also adds to the discussion with his picks and commentary.
Best Picture
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, Lincoln, The Dark Knight Rises, Skyfall
Kubryk’s Commentary: It’s hard to predict this category because there’s between five and ten nominees with no set number between. My guess is the first six are in by virtue of insanely good reviews, solid box office and strong word of mouth. There’s not a massive indie scene this year that’ll take away nominations from anyone in the studio system outside of maybe Moonrise Kingdom or Beasts of the Southern Wild grabbing a nomination. My guess is that James Bond finally gets some Oscar love and eventually the Academy will placate the fanboys creaming their jeans over getting one comic book film nominated for an Oscar. An outside to grab a nomination in this field could be Hitchcock (Hollywood loves rewarding films about old Hollywood) and Hyde Park on Hudson. The Master could be in the hunt as well but its subject matter could leave it looking in from the outside. The Avengers was a massive success but films like that generally don’t get Oscar nominated; it’s too peppy and only one fanboy centric film is going to make it. Look for The Dark Knight Rises to wind up in that slot if only because of its darker material and Christopher Nolan finally getting something after being passed over for both The Dark Knight and Inception.
Skip’s Commentary: With the announcement that the Academy Awards would pay tribute to the 50th anniversary of James Bond it wouldn’t surprise me if Skyfall gets a Best Picture nomination. You have to take in to consideration of the voting body. James Bond is a very lucrative brand name and one of the most recognizable characters in cinema’s history. Also, Skyfall is likely to factor into other categories like Best Original Song, Cinematography, and possibly Supporting Actor. The Academy’s decision to expand from five Best Picture nominees, then to ten, then to a number between five and ten, means the field could serve as the “Best 5” and the also-rans. Last year, I was surprised that Spielberg’s War Horse got a Best Picture nomination. Originally, I thought only nine films would get nominated. War Horse ensured it was an even 10. This year, I hope the Academy members don’t vote a lot of movies #1 so that we have 10 nominees once again. But it may very well be the case. At least for 2012 it would seem warranted, because of how great a year it was for cinema.
Skip’s Projected Field: Zero Dark Thirty, Argo, Lincoln, Django Unchained, Silver Linings Playbook, Les Miserables, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Skyfall, Life of Pi
Best Director
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables)
Kubryk’s Commentary: Best Director is going to be the place where anyone with a serious chance of also winning Best Picture is going to wind up. And the five best films in terms of winning Best Picture are going to get their directors nominated for Best Director. Bigelow is a shoe-in because Zero Dark Thirty is the favorite to win Best Picture, Spielberg making a prestige film at the end of the year is a near certainty to get him nominated. Ang Lee’s Life of Pi could get him nominated (but not his picture),
Skip’s Commentary: This year the Director’s category could be nothing but former winners, former nominees and a first-timer. Michael Haneke’s Amour, which has been favored by various critics groups and the National Society of Film Critics, could be an exception this year and be a foreign film that is nominated in both the Best Picture and Best Foreign Film categories. It had a strong showing at Cannes so he could see himself with a director’s nomination. If that happens he could push out David O. Russell. The only locks at this point to receiving nominations are Steven Spielberg, Ben Affleck and Kathryn Bigelow. The last two could be any combination of Hooper, Russell, Haneke, Ang Lee and Quentin Tarantino.
Skip’s Projected Field: Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), Tom Hooper (Les Miserables), Ang Lee (Life of Pi)
Best Actor in a Leading Role
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Denzel Washington (Flight), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), John Hawkes (The Sessions), Bill Murray (Hyde Park on Hudson), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables)
Kubryk’s Commentary: This might be the best field for Best Actor in decades. The locks are Day-Lewis and Denzel, who both have a pair of Oscars already and raised the bar yet again this year. Hawkes was great in this year’s best indie that could and Murray & Gere are never bad picks who were in Oscar bait this year but only one will get a nomination. Jackman got nothing but stellar reviews and Les Miserables doesn’t work without him. An outside choice could be Jack Black for Bernie, as I didn’t think he was all that good (nor was the film) but he’s gotten better reviews than mine. Jamie Foxx could be a pick for Django Unchained but don’t expect it; Hollywood tends to stay away from anything risky when it comes to Best Actor. Bradley Cooper might be slotted in here as well; David Russell films tend to be the type where they don’t get just one nomination as a high tide raises all ships and such. Anthony Hopkins is a dark horse for Hitchcock, as well. Look out for Joaquim Phoenix as well; he’s probably the sixth man in a five man race but he could easily replace Murray.
Skip’s Commentary: The big question is if Joaquin Phoenix’s comments about award shows and platitudes will deep six his chances of getting nominated by the voting body for his performance in The Master. Phoenix, who was once nominated for his portrayal as Johnny Cash in Walk the Line, delivered a gutsy performance in Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master, a beautiful-to-look-at but polarizing film to say the least. I think Phoenix’s comments may help Bradley Cooper, who got a nod from the Screen Actors Guild recently. And with Hugh Jackman de-clawed until the next Wolverine movie rolls around, he got to flex the golden pipes in making the Academy remember that he won a Tony Award once before. The Academy loves that sort of stuff – actors who sing in movies. It worked for Jennifer Hudson, why not Jackman?
Skip’s Projected Field: Denzel Washington (Flight), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), John Hawkes (The Sessions), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook)
Best Actress in a Leading Role
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Helen Mirren (Hitchcock), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild)
Kubryk’s Commentary: Chastain is the overwhelming favorite and the surest lock of any actress in this category. Lawrence may have had a big hit in The Hunger Games but without a really strong performance Silver Linings Playbook doesn’t work as much. Wallis was the one constant being praised in Beasts of the Southern Wild and Mirren gave a splendid turn as Alfred Hitchcock’s long suffering wife. I think the Academy will reward that film for being about Old Hollywood … especially considering it didn’t really catch fire in theatres, either. Sometimes a film’s lack of box office success can translate into nominations and awards.
Skip’s Commentary: While I think Scott may have mistakenly put Helen Hunt in the Best Actress category when it looks like she’s more likely to get a supporting nomination, Kate Winslet went from supporting Golden Globes winner for The Reader to winning lead actress for The Reader at the Oscars. Personally, I thought she was better as the lead in Revolutionary Road (for which she won Best Actress at the Globes the same year as The Reader), but I don’t have a vote. Emmanuelle Riva’s performance in Amour is getting much attention for a few reasons. 1) If nominated, Riva would be the oldest actress to get an Academy Award nomination for Best Actress (she’s 85), and 2) she plays a woman who’s succumbs to deteriorating health, both mentally and physically. The Academy also loves such a performance. The question remains, though, if there are enough members of the voting body who have seen the French-language film to push it for major nominations.
Skip’s Projected Field: Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
Best Actor in a Supporting Role
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Alan Arkin (Argo), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Kubryk’s Commentary: McConaughey is the only actor nominated in this field that hasn’t won an Oscar already and I think his turn in Magic Mike will be similar to that of Robert Downey Jr. in Tropic Thunder. Don’t kid yourself; McConaughey was absolutely brilliant in the role and supporting nominations are where the Academy tends to get a little creative at times. There isn’t a ton of depth in this field, much like Supporting Actress, so this will feel an awful lot like a NFC Pro Bowl roster: mainly picks of guys who had good to great years but didn’t have their best in 2012.
Skip’s Commentary: I believe it was Kevin Pollak who once said that “everybody needs a best friend.” What he meant by that is that the main character would need a buddy to lean on or act as a sounding board. He would know as a career character actor having played Tom Cruise’s friend in A Few Good Men, Walter Matthau’s son in Grumpy Old Men and its sequel, and he was sharing scenes with Kyser Soze and didn’t even know it in The Usual Suspects. None of the possible nominees, except for one possible exception, are ones you would consider “best friend” characters. Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master is more of a teacher than a classmate to Joaquin Phoenix’s character. Even with his clothes off Matthew McConaughey is concealing something from Channing Tatum in Magic Mike. The only exception would be Christoph Waltz who gives a slave his freedom and the two go killing bad white dudes together in Django Unchained. How’s that for a friendship? If Waltz were to get nominated, he would most likely prevent Leonardo DiCaprio from also getting a supporting nomination for his work in Tarantino’s spaghetti western. And if Skyfall gets a best picture nomination it wouldn’t surprise me if Javier Bardem picks up a supporting nod. It would be similar to the year The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring was nominated for Best Picture and Ian McKellan got a supporting actor nod.
Skip’s Projected Field: Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Waltz (Django Unchained), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Matthew McConaughey (Magic Mike)
Best Actress in a Supporting Role
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Anne Hathaway and Samantha Parks (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Amy Adams (The Master), Maggie Smith (Quartet)
Kubryk’s Commentary: This is between the two Les Miserables actresses as I expect that film to gain steam and pick up a ton of awards. This was a fairly weak category this year and don’t expect much surprises in terms of nomination; it’ll be more recognized parts of legacy picks more than anything else.
Skip’s Commentary: This is Anne Hathaway’s award to lose quite frankly. Back in 2007, Jennifer Hudson won for her supporting performance in Dreamgirls. While her screen time is more than Hathaway’s in Les Mis both will be remembered for singing one signature song. “I Dreamed a Dream” is probably the most identifiable from Les Miserables, and just a few years ago it gained even more international acclaim when Susan Boyle sang it on an episode on “Britain’s Got Talent” and became an Internet sensation (various versions of her performance have been seen well over 17 million times). Hathaway was once nominated for lead actress in Rachel Getting Married so the Academy may feel it is her time again and get her another nomination. I agree that Maggie Smith will get nominated but it may be for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel instead. As for Samantha Parks, I’d switch her with Helen Hunt from The Sessions.
Skip’s Projected Field: Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Sally Field (Lincoln), Amy Adams (The Master), Maggie Smith (The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel), Helen Hunt (The Sessions)
Best Animated Film
Kubryk’s Projected Field: Brave, Wreck-It Ralph, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Frankenweenie
Kubryk’s Commentary: This is a splendid year for animated film as it isn’t the annual “Give Pixar the Oscar already” category like it has been in the past several years.
Skip’s Commentary: Who would have thought that in a year where Disney is most likely to dominate the Best Animated Film race that Pixar would be the weak link? While Scott may have enjoyed Brave more than I did, at least it attempted to change the mold of the traditional “Disney Princess” movie. However, it was also a film that was plagued in its development as it changed direction midstream. I would so like Aardman’s The Pirates! Band of Misfits to get a nomination, but they may not want to vote more than two stop-motion animation films (those other two would be Tim Burton’s Frankenweenie and ParaNorman). DreamWorks Animation’s Rise of the Guardians may take that fifth spot if there are indeed five nominations this year, or it could go to a surprise animated release like The Secret of Kells in 2009 or A Cat in Paris in 2010.
Skip’s Projected Field: Brave, Wreck-It Ralph, ParaNorman, Frankenweenie,
A Movie A Week – The Challenge
This Week’s DVD – Pitch Perfect
It was one of my favorite films of 2012 and easily the biggest surprise. Why? Because I thought it was going to be rancid and wound up being much better than I ever anticipated. And it wasn’t because Elizabeth Banks and John Michael Higgins nearly steal the film during the few moments their on the screen, either. They do absolutely own it, though, and you should watch the film just for that. The film’s actually pretty good, too, and well worth a rental/Netflix at the minimum. I had it as one of my Top 10 films of 2012, as well.
[youtube http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F03N-ApQdmw]Simple concept, mined from underdog dance movies. Beca (Anna Kendrick) is a college freshman who hates being a student because she’d rather be earning her stripes as a DJ. She wants to make music, not attend college, but her father is a professor and thus her collegiate experience is free. As she commits half-heartedly to the process, her father makes her a deal. She gives college a try and after a year, if she doesn’t want to be there, she can walk away. So she does just that and joins an A Capella group on campus. From there it’s into the wacky world of organized dork singing, culminating in a big contest to crown the nation’s champion in that event.
It follows the concept of every underdog dance/singing film ever made: young rebel learns to be part of a team and everyone adjusts to their new and creative ways to win. No reinvention of the wheel here; there’s nothing new from a pure story-telling manner that we haven’t seen dozens of times before. But here’s the thing: it does it really well.
The one film I think this compares to is Jack Reacher in that both are genre films, nothing more, but they do it so well that they become entertaining. I didn’t mind that I knew exactly where this film was going to go, like the Cruise vehicle, because it did it so well that I didn’t mind. That’s the key with a genre film; it’s ok to be formulaic if you’re kicking ass while doing so. That’s the key with formula; if you can do it well you can overcome the basic “I can see what’s coming next” downside to following formula.
For as much as I crapped on this film before seeing it because of how horrible of a trailer it had I wound up seeing it twice in theatres. Sometimes it’s nice to be wrong.
Strongly recommended.
What Looks Good This Weekend, and I Don’t Mean the $2 Pints of Bass Ale and community college co-eds with low standards at Emil’s
Gangster Squad – The tale of how the LAPD prevented the Mafia from getting a foothold into California … by bringing off the books violence to them with a bunch of badass former war veterans leading the charge.
See it – It’s been covered before in L.A Confidential, et al, but I’m curious about Fleischer’s take on it. Plus it might have my favorite cast of 2013 on paper, so far, so it’s always worth a look.
See it – I’m making a point of watching The Untouchables and possibly L.A. Confidential if time permits before watching the film on Monday. And while January is traditionally a dumping ground for movies, remember that Gangster Squad was originally supposed to open last September but was delayed due to the Aurora, CO theater shooting which inevitably forced Warner Bros. hand to hold up the release and do a few days of production to replace the gangland style theater shooting as depicted in the original theatrical trailer.
A Haunted House – The Wayans brothers tackle the whole “found footage” phenomenon.
See it – The Wayans brothers generally aren’t all that funny but Dance Flick was shockingly funny and I think going after the found footage films could be funny on a couple of levels if done correctly.
Rent it – While I am intrigued by Marlon Wayans and his wanting to poke fun at the found footage movies, the trailer sold me up until Nick Swarsdon makes his appearance. I know he has a following, but don’t count me as one of the sheep.
Zero Dark Thirty – (Wide Expansion) They don’t call the hunt for Osama bin Laden the greatest manhunt in history for nothing folks. Kathryn Bigelow attempts to show us how difficult the operation was.
See it – Okay, I raved about it when it first hit theaters in NY and LA, and I even went as far as to my it my favorite film of 2012. Some people may have been shocked that Kathryn Bigelow beat the likes of her ex-hubby James Cameron at the Oscars some years back, but with ZDT she proves more than capable at telling a story where we already know the outcome and have it be a compelling feature.
Scott “Kubryk” Sawitz brings his trademarked irreverence and offensive hilarity to Twitter in 140 characters or less. Follow him @ScottSawitz .
