Monday Morning Critic – 2013 Academy Award Predictions (Who’ll Win the Oscar?) – Further Thoughts On A Good Day To Die Hard, aka Die Hard 5

Columns, Features, Top Story

Pulp-O-Mizer_Cover_Image (3)

It doesn’t seem like it should be coming up this quick but the Oscars are this weekend. I hate it when people say it’s the Super Bowl for films, mainly because it’s not the best facing the best but the best released at a certain time in a certain type of film. It’s a standard for film, of course, but Oscar worthy means a lot less than it used to. But it does mean one thing though.

Time to do some predictions!

As always it’s only about the categories I tend to care about because … well … let’s face it. Predicting technical categories is tough and no one really cares about them all that much outside of those who are actually nominated in them. Or if you’re in an Oscar pool and thus trying to make sure you win the sucker. Outside of those two reasons no one gets up in arms over “Best Documentary Short Feature” or “Best Editing,” you know? Thus I never pick them officially; in contests of course I will but anyone who gets them all right has way too much time on their hands.

Oscars

Best Picture

The NomineesAmour, Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Django Unchained, Les Miserables, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Should WinArgo

Who Will WinArgo

Why It’ll Happen – The one thing Oscar always tends to favor is the film that keeps on winning every other award. Many of the voters of the Academy overlap in SAG, the Director’s Guild, Producer’s Guild, et al. Argo has been capturing every award that matters and it’d be shocking if it didn’t bring home the Best Picture Oscar. Throw in Ben Affleck not getting a directorial nod and people will be more inclined to vote for it because of the perceived slight. It’d be a colossal upset at this point if anyone but Argo wins. Odds are this will be the only award it wins, too.

Oscars

Best Director

The Nominees – Michael Haneke (Amour), Steven Spielberg (Lincoln), Ang Lee (Life of Pi), David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook), Benh Zeitlin (Beasts of the Southern Wild)

Who Should Win – Ben Affleck, Argo

Who Will Win – Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

Why It’ll Happen – Affleck won every award that mattered, including the Director’s Guild, but isn’t nominated for an Oscar. It’s kind of crazy; winning the DGA award is the best indicator of who’ll win Best Director. It’s such a regular occurrence that it’s usually the best sign for it. I can’t remember someone winning it and not getting at least nominated by the Academy. Spielberg is the safe pick here without Affleck, Tarantino or Kathryn Bigelow in the picture. It’s like they just wanted to give him another Oscar and wanted to rig the field like it was an election for an Alderman in the city of Chicago. I mean seriously … you look at the final five and it’s like someone thought “What other four people can we put together to force them to give us a Spielberg Oscar win?” It’s like putting Usain Bolt in the Special Olympics in 2016 if he doesn’t win gold in Brazil, you know?

Oscars

Best Actor in a Lead Role

The Nominees – Bradley Cooper (Silver Linings Playbook), Daniel Day-Lewis (Lincoln), Hugh Jackman (Les Miserables), Joaquim Phoenix (The Master), Denzel Washington (Flight)

Who Should Win – Denzel Washington, Flight

Who Will Win – Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Why It’ll Happen – There are only two people here that matter: Denzel and Daniel. Everyone else is window-dressing, including the guy who played “Sack” in Wedding Crashers. If you go back far enough every major actor has a role (or five) that is kind of embarrassing, of course, but that particular Bradley Cooper works better than “Face from the A-Team movie” does.

I might’ve been the only person who thought DDL was incredibly over-rated in Lincoln, which I found to be perhaps the most over-rated film of 2012 by a wide margin as well. He raised the film but this isn’t as good as the roles in which he’s won Oscars already. I’d hesitate to call it better than Jackman or Cooper. It’s not his best performance, merely a very good one, and by comparison I don’t think he could’ve played “Whip.” I think Denzel could’ve played Abe Lincoln, crazy enough, and somehow make it work.

That’s the difference … and that’s why Denzel should get his third Oscar before Day-Lewis gets his third.

Lincoln‘s also not nearly as difficult to play as Washington in Flight. The degree of difficulty is off the charts for Denzel and it wasn’t for Daniel. Denzel’s role was much more difficult in a much more difficult film. Lincoln was just a straight up pandering to the Academy and they tend to reward that stuff. So look for Day-Lewis to get his next Oscar.

Oscars

Best Actress in a Leading Role

The Nominees – Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty), Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook), Emmanuelle Riva (Amour), Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild), Naomi Watts (The Impossible)

Who Should Win – Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Will Win- Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Why It’ll Happen – Zero Dark Thirty is going to get rewarded but not nearly as profoundly as it looked like early on. It’ll get one big award and Chastain feels like the best fit as a sort of consolation prize. Lawrence is the dark horse here as she brought a much different performance than you’d think in Silver Linings Playbook. Her time will come but I don’t think it’s now. Chastain has more momentum and better lead-up wins to the event. Lawrence’s performance will be remembered far longer, of course, but Chastain gets the nod now. Quirky comedies generally don’t win Oscars nearly as often as drama does, despite the difference in capturing the imagination over the long term.

Oscars

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

The Nominees – Alan Arkin (Argo), Robert De Niro (Silver Linings Playbook), Philip Seymour Hoffman (The Master), Tommy Lee Jones (Lincoln), Christoph Walyz (Django Unchained)

Who Should Win – Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Who Will Win – Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Why It’ll Happen – Whoever wins gets another Oscar for the mantle. This category has five actors, six previous wins and an insane amount of nominations. Lincoln won’t win the big prize of Best Picture but it’ll win enough smaller ones that Spielberg can go home happy. Jones is solid, but unremarkable, but he seems to be a lock. Waltz would be a better candidate if he hadn’t won so recently, despite Django Unchained relying on him for so much of it to work. De Niro could be the dark horse here; this is the first time in a long time he’s played against type (of mocking his tough guy image) and thus a third win for him shouldn’t be completely out of the picture. Hoffman should win but The Master didn’t have the sort of “word of mouth” once it got wide. Opinions were too diverse and I think Hoffman walks away empty because of it. Arkin also has a relatively recent win, as well.

Oscars

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

The Nominees – Amy Adams (The Master), Sally Field (Lincoln), Anne Hathaway (Les Miserables), Helen Hunt (The Sessions), Jacki Weaver (Silver Linings Playbook)

Who Should Win – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Who Will Win – Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Why It’ll Happen – The Lock of the Night as without her in it Les Miserables doesn’t work nearly as well as it does with her in it. An absolutely sublime performance from Hathaway and if Jennifer Hudson’s win for Dreamgirls showed us that just singing masterfully, and not acting, is good enough to win. This is a good field but Hathaway is the clear favorite. It’d be a shocker if anyone else wins.

Oscars

Best Writing – Original Screenplay

The Nominees – Amour, Django Unchained, Flight, Moonrise Kingdom, Zero Dark Thirty

Who Should Win – Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom

Who Will Win – Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Why It’ll Happen – It’s been a long time since the Academy honored QT (and even then it was a shared award with Roger Avary for Pulp Fiction‘s original screenplay). I think he gets an Oscar for this film in the same way Woody Allen has three Oscars for writing (four in total) and 15 nominations total. Tarantino gets the win here, if only because it feels like it’s the right time for him to be acknowledged as an Academy Award winner for his solo effort this time on Django. It’s an acknowledgement of his talents and a reward for not getting nominated for Best Director.

The Academy’s good at rewarding people with awards and nominations for reasons other than performance.

Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola’s film was a much more daring and inventive screenplay, even if it didn’t exceed Anderson’s The Royal Tennenbaums at the box office. I’d like to think in a perfect world they’d wind up with the win but I don’t think they will. It was inventive and a really interesting, if flawed, film.

Oscars

Best Writing – Adapted Screenplay

The Nominees – Argo, Beasts of the Southern Wild, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook

Who Should Win – Chris Terrio, Argo

Who Will Win – David Kushner, Lincoln

Why It’ll Happen – Lincoln is going to pick up a lot of hardware on the way up because it’s a Spielberg film. Expect this to be one of them.

Oscars

Best Animated Feature

The Nominees – Brave, Frankenweenie, ParaNorman, The Pirates! Band of Misfits, Wreck-It Ralph

Who Should Win – Wreck-It Ralph

Who Will Win – ParaNorman

Why It’ll Happen – It’s crazy to think that Pixar isn’t a lock for Best Animated Feature and almost a surprise that Brave even got nominated. It was a tremendous film but didn’t have the “magic” we’ve grown to expect from Pixar. We expect them to just blow everyone away and yet … they didn’t. It’s sad that making something that’s very good is a disappointment, you know?

Pixar’s fastball is still magnificent but it’s not painting the corners nearly as prolifically as they used to. ParaNorman has all the requisites for a good Oscar winner but I liked Wreck-It Ralph a bit more in theatres. Either choice will be a worthy candidate. I wouldn’t be surprised if Pirates took it either; Aardman has a knack of finding its way into the hearts of people.

Oscars

Best Foreign Language Film

The Nominees – Amour, Kon-Tiki, No, A Royal Affair, War Witch

Who Should WinAmour

Who Will Win – Amour

Why It’ll HappenAmour is another seeming lock for this category. It has both a Best Picture and Best Director nomination and since it’s probably not going to win it’ll get this as consolation. You don’t get nominated for the big prize and lose this one, I think. But there should be a disclaimer for War Witch as it’s listed as being from Canada. I mean come on … does Canadian English count as a foreign language these days? Heh. It’s actually based in Africa, of course, but that joke was just too easy.

Oscars

Best Documentary – Feature

The Nominees – 5 Broken Cameras, The Gatekeepers, How to Survive a Plague, The Invisible War, Searching for Sugar Man

Who Should Win – Searching for Sugar Man

Who Will Win – Searching for Sugar Man

Why It’ll HappenSearching for Sugar Man has earned every award that matters and is the only film on this film that even got a significant theatrical release. When in doubt, go with the popular one.

Oscars

Best Score

The Nominees – Anna Karenina, Argo, Life of Pi, Lincoln, Skyfall

Who Should Win – Life of Pi

Who Will Win – Life of Pi

Why It’ll Happen – Life of Pi is going to get rewarded somehow as it got nominated in every category that matters but is a spectator in all but this one for the most part. It’s also a pretty good score, too, and I think it’s reasonable to expect this to be its consolation prize. Granted no one ever buys a DVD or a ticket to listen a film’s score but it’s something, right?

Oscars

Best Original Song

The Nominees – “Skyfall” from Skyfall, “Before My Time” from Chasing Ice, “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted, Pi’s Lullaby from Life of Pi, “Suddenly” from Les Miserables

Who Should Win – “Everybody Needs a Best Friend” from Ted

Who Will Win – “Skyfall” from Skyfall

Why It’ll Happen – Seth MacFarlane is hosting and I’d love to see him take home an Oscar. Why? Because the guy is such an insufferable doucher at times that him pointing out that he’s an Oscar winner, not just a nominee, would be so grating to a lot of people that it would be great to watch. You know that Family Guy would make sure to make it prominent as well; it’s not as good a song as Adele’s Bond song but my personal amusement isn’t nearly as good a factor as song quality.

A Movie A Week – The Challenge

a-good-day-to-die-hard_13602342020
This Week’s Film – A Good Day To Die Hard

I reviewed it here but there wasn’t enough space for what I wanted to write as opposed to what I did write. And it felt appropriate to write it here as opposed to wait a week or so, you know?

The one thing that’s bothered me about the Die Hard sequels starting with the third film is that they’ve removed the condensing of the world McClane has done his thing in. The one thing about an action film is that if you want to do a true Die Hard film you can’t be cutesy with the script. Everything has to exist for a purpose; it’s the screenwriting equivalent of Chekov’s Gun. You can’t change settings or invent something that can’t be at an airport or in an office building as there is if you’re jet-setting; there isn’t nearly as much leeway. He won’t magically find a trunk full of guns when it’s convenient for a film to have it if he’s stuck at Nakatomi Plaza, you know?

Everything has to be there for a purpose.

It’s why the first two films were significantly better than the next three; McClane’s best qualities are that he’s got moxie. He’s a guy who saves the day against all odds and it’s not a given. It’s the thing about Die Hard that still holds true; I’ve seen the film god knows how many times but it’s such a well-designed film that you still feel like he might not survive. He doesn’t have access to anything that wouldn’t be in the building already. It’s why he counts how many bullets he has, takes ammo from dead bad guys and why that big scene of him running across glass barefoot means so much. McClane takes a beating and at the end he’s bruised and battered. He may have saved the day but he paid a heavy physical toll to do so; you could say that he merely survived it.

die hard doyle

It’s why from Die Hard with a Vengeance on there hasn’t been that same cinema magic the first two had. It’s an action film with the phrase “Die Hard” in it but it’s really Bruce Willis playing his action hero persona more than anything else. McClane is an icon because he was the right guy … but stuck in the wrong place at the wrong time. He didn’t have much but his gun, a couple of extra magazines and street savvy that translated into saving his own skin.

A screenwriter had to be creative when it comes to crafting this kind of a film because McClane wouldn’t have access to anything fancy. It’s why the only things he used in the first film were his police issue pistol and whatever he could grab from bad guys. Other than that he was stuck with whatever was lying around the office and an international corporation wouldn’t have a stockpile of over-sized machine guns just lying around.

Die Hard 25th Anniversary Collection

It’s easy screenwriting to have McClane get out of situations in typical action movie clichés, et al, and that’s why Die Hard 5 bugged me. I always keep expecting them to go back to that formula: Bruce Willis with nothing but his wits and a couple dozen rounds, against impossible odds and winning in a confined space. It’s why “Die Hard in a (Place)” was such a staple of the action genre for so long. It was easy to duplicate Die Hard somewhere else but it’s also a difficult thing to write. You have to justify everything a hero has to use, and will use, in the film as being plausible because it has to be in that place. Casey Ryback would have access to only a certain amount of things in Under Siege, et al, and it made that film enjoyable because of it.

You don’t have those outs you do in a big dumb action film. It’s why Die Hard 5 doesn’t work as a whole and why I disliked it significantly. Not recommended.

What Looks Good This Weekend, and I Don’t Mean the $2 Pints of Bass Ale and community college co-eds with low standards at the Alumni Club

Dark Skies – Keri Russell’s family deals with mystical powers or something.

Skip it – It doesn’t look scary … just bad.

Snitch – The Rock brings down drug dealers to get his son out of prison.

See it – It was based off a real story, apparently, and Dwayne Johnson is usually pretty good at picking non family film roles.

Scott “Kubryk” Sawitz brings his trademarked irreverence and offensive hilarity to Twitter in 140 characters or less. Follow him @ScottSawitz .