One of the downsides of moving is that your entire life gets thrown out of whack. Normally my weekend would’ve been a handful of movies Friday and then the FUEL TV card Saturday. After buying a house, of course, nothing is the same and I missed watching the fights live. Thank god for replays or else I’d be unable to file this column. Thus it’s time to play Joe Silva and figure out who goes where after a really good Japan card.
Winners
Mark Hunt vs. the winner of Frank Mir vs. Daniel Cormier – It says a lot (of bad things) about the state of the heavyweight division that Hunt could ideally be the next title challenger in a short while. He wants someone in the Top five, ideally, but everyone is tied up right now. The winner of Mir vs. Cormier for a title shot would be natural if only Cormier would take a heavyweight title shot against his teammate and training partner. He won’t and thus if Mir wins then Hunt vs. Mir could be made for a title shot. Cormier vs. Hunt is only going to happen if the Olympic wrestling captain wins and Cain Velasquez loses to Bigfoot Silva. The winner of JDS vs. Overeem could be slotted in here, with the winner gaining a title shot, as well.
Wanderlei Silva vs. the loser of Jon Jones vs. Chael Sonnen – I’d love to see Wandy retire, if only because I don’t want to see him become MMA’s version of Parkinson’s stricken Muhammad Ali in his post fight career because of how much punishment he took. But if he’s going to stay fighting, and the UFC isn’t going to nudge him out the door, then the loser of this spring’s light heavyweight title fight would be perfect. Sonnen and Silva have had a war of words going back several years now and if Jones loses he’s going to get a big name and a winnable fight (Silva is both).
Yushin Okami vs. the winner of Luke Rockhold vs. Vitor Belfort – Okami’s in a weird spot right now. He’s got a good winning streak, including two wins over name opponents, but he’s already been mirked by Anderson Silva in recent memory. Thus he has to get another big time winning streak to get another shot at the champion, probably five or six fights or so. The winner of Vitor/Rockhold should be a win away from a title shot; Rockhold will most likely slot in with a win, Vitor with two.
Diego Sanchez vs. Joe Lauzon – Diego’s a former title contender who probably won’t fight for the title again. But it doesn’t mean he can’t be slotted in against guys who should make for fun fights. Lauzon/Sanchez would be a barnburner like Guida/Sanchez was. The key question right now is if Sanchez can make 155 still or if the Gomi fight was a fluke when it comes to making the weight. If it was being in Japan, et al, that cause him to miss 155 then he should make weight without a problem. If his body just can’t cut anymore than 170 is the place to be, obviously.
Dong Hyun Kim vs. Pascal Krauss – Kim had a fairly impressive winning streak going until he ran into Carlos Condit. A fluke injury against Demian Maia put him on the cut list and he responded with a big win. But he’s not ready to move into the Top 10 once again; he needs a couple of more wins before he’ll sniff another title shot. Krauss is a great matchup and a good gauge of how Kim’s striking has come along as well as Krauss’s takedown defense.
Losers
Stefan Struve vs. the loser of Big Nog vs. Fabricio Werdum – Struve found out what happens when you throw down with a K-1 World Grand Prix champion; Hunt looked like he’d really worked on his submission defense game and Struve nearly had him a couple times. He looked like a Top 10 heavyweight, as did Hunt, and I don’t think he falls that far in a next matchup. The loser of the TUF season 2 coaches looks like a good fit for Struve.
Brian Stann vs. Buddy Roberts – Stann’s an important guy in the UFC machine; he’s a gifted announcer and the guy you want in front of hostile media because of his background. So I think the UFC does him a solid and gives him an undercard fight he’ll be expected to win. He’s lost twice in a row, once at middleweight and light heavyweight apiece, and I think the UFC wants him in a co-main on a prominent card soon. Thus expect him to get a guy like Roberts before being placed back against someone tough like an Alan Belcher (who would be another guy to slot in, potentially).
Takanori Gomi vs. Donald Cerrone – Both Gomi and Cerrone are in that space where you wonder what to do next with either guy. Cerrone had a life changing moment climbing rocks alongside a brutal KO loss to Anthony Pettis. Gomi is more of a name than a talent at this point. Both are exciting fighters, though, and this would make for a fun feature fight on a FUEL or FX card.
Hector Lombard vs. the loser of Vitor Belfort vs. Luke Rockhold – Hector Lombard just failed the most important test a middleweight can have. It was like he was on a Japanese game show hosted by Yushin Okami called “Are you elite?” and wound up on the short end of the stick. Yushin Okami is the ultimate test for a middleweight: if you get past him you’re ready. Lombard isn’t ready … and probably never will be. At this point his ceiling is really known; he’s good enough to beat most guys but probably not good enough to crack into the elite of the division. Stann could be a good fit here, as well.
Bryan Caraway vs. Kang Kyung-Ho – Caraway has looked like a future world champion at times and like a guy who’s marginally in the UFC at others. Kyung-Ho lost to “Bruce Leeroy” in his UFC debut and will be fighting for his job in his next fight. Sparks fly usually when both of these circumstances converge.
