Bettor’s Guide/Preview — Tavoris Cloud vs. Bernard Hopkins

News, Top Story

Tell me if you have heard this one before: Bernard “The Executioner” Hopkins (52-6-2) will take on a younger, stronger, faster, hard punching fighter who will likely end his career if not cause him serious physical damage.  Of course you have heard it before!  And not just once… the boxing world has been writing this story in previews for Hopkins fights for the last twelve and a half years.

In 2001, Hopkins faced off against the future Hall of Famer and Puerto Rican icon Felix “Tito” Trinidad at Madison Square Garden in New York City in the finals of Don King’s tournament to crown the undisputed middleweight champion.  Leading up to the fight, the focus was on Trinidad, undefeated, a former titlist at welterweight and junior middleweight, the first man to defeat Oscar de la Hoya, Fernando Vargas and David Reid and the first to convincingly defeat Pernell Whitaker, the man with dynamite in both hands.  It was written that Trinidad would dominate Hopkins who was considered “too old” at 36.  Then, when the two men met in front of Tito’s crowd, it was Hopkins who dominated.  Some would say it looked like a professional toying with an amateur.  Anyway you slice it, Hopkins defied the odds.

For the next few years, the same story would be repeated.  Amazingly, the public thought the smaller de la Hoya would defeat “old man” Hopkins.  Nope, B-Hop won that won via sixth round knockout.  Next, it was assumed that the up and coming Jermain Taylor was the future of boxing and he would blast Hopkins into retirement.  Although Taylor was awarded two decisions over Hopkins and won the middleweight championship, most observers thought the elder man won both slow-paced contests.  After that, it was declared that when the 41 year old moved up to light heavyweight to meet division champion and Roy Jones conqueror Antonio Tarver, the boxing world was giving Hopkins a gold watch.  Hopkins, however, rejected the gold watch and pummeled Tarver for 12 rounds to capture a championship in a second division.  Following a short lived retirement, Hopkins was an underdog to both Winky Wright and Joe Calzaghe.  Neither fighter could do any real damage to Hopkins.  A win over Wright and a tight decision loss to Calzaghe led Hopkins to a fight with undefeated middleweight champion and knock out artist Kelly Pavlik.  This was definitely it the world said: Hopkins would be pulverized by the “Ghost.”  Of course, Hopkins once again dominated a younger foe!  Same for Canadian Jean Pascal.

Playing the role of the young lion sent to execute “The Executioner” this Saturday at the Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York and live on HBO is IBF Light Heavyweight Titlist Tavoris Cloud (24-0).  Cloud is a big light heavyweight with exceptional physical stregnth and an almost 80% knock out ratio.  While he looks like a monster, a review of his record will reveal something else.  His best wins are over the also ancient Glen Johnson and Brit Clinton Woods.  That isn’t much to write home about, especially considering that Hopkins has wins over four future hall of famers and numerous undefeated fighters.  Additionally, Cloud’s last fight, a split decision over Spaniard Gabriel Campillo, was basically a disaster for Cloud.  After dropping Campillo twice in the opening stanza, Cloud was basically outboxed for the rest of the fight and was incredibly lucky to get a decision.  One might think that because a boxer like Campillo was able to school the offensive minded Cloud, Hopkins, the master boxer taught by Philadelphia legend Bouie Fisher and currently trained by expert instructor Nazim Richardson, should be able to have success.against Cloud.  However, Campillo does not equal Hopkins.  In fact, Campillo’s success against Cloud was based on the use of his legs and lateral movement.  Hopkins, with his 48 year old legs, is no longer a mover; his defense and counterpunching is based standing on the inside, rolling and blocking punches, holding, headbutting, elbowing and other assorted semi-legal tactics.

On the other hand, Hopkins is coming off a defeat to Chad Dawson.  Suffice it to say, Cloud is nothing like Dawson, who is a mover and stylist.  In fact, Cloud is nothing like any of the fighters who recently defeated Hopkins: Calzaghe was a speedy volume puncher, Taylor was a highly skilled offensive fighter with a magnificent jab.  Cloud’s best chance is to wear Hopkins out to the point he lands a big haymaker.  That sounds like the plan Pavlik tried and we saw how that worked out.

As in the past, Hopkins is the underdog (www.sportbet.com lists Hopkins at +135 and Cloud at -155).  I’ve long learned that betting against the ageless wonder is a fools proposition.  Plus, even if Cloud has success, Hopkins has a granite chin and the in-fighting/wrestling that is likelyy to dominate large stretches of this fight will most likely produce a close decision.  Those have tended to go against Hopkins but here, he is fighting close to home and on a card controlled by his promoter.  Hopkins is the pick here.

There are no odds posted for the undercard bouts.  Also from Brooklyn, rising welterweight prospect Keith “One Time” Thurman (19-0) faces former IBF welterweight titlist Jan Zavek (32-2).  One fighter is a big puncher, the naturally larger man and is promoted and managed by Golden Boy Promotions and Al Haymon.  The other fighter is a light hitting Slovenian who has never won in the United States.  Do the math and take Thurman.  HBO Latino will also be showing a fight before the main card gets started: Juan Carlos Salgado (26-1-1) will defend his IBF junior lightweight title against Argenis Mendez (20-2) in a rematch of a 2011 bout won by Salgado.  However, that fight was in Salgado’s native Mexico where Mendez was deducted a point yet he nearly pulled out the victory with a 12 round knock down.  Look for Mendez to turn the tables this time around.

Author’s Record for the Year: 5-1-1 (the loss was Tony Thompson’s shocking upset of David Price and the draw was Malik Scott’s “draw” with Vyacheslav Glazkov)

Please feel free to email Mike at mpg4321@aol.com and follow him on Twitter at @mikeyg4321.