Lost in the shuffle of controversy and passed time, when we last saw Timothy Bradley (29-0) in a boxing ring, his hand was being raised as split decision victor over Manny Pacquiao. Indeed, it is tough to remember that because the decision was universally (with the exception of Brian Kenny but inclusive of Bradley’s promoter) labeled as robbery. Also, if you recall the aftermath of the bout, you may remember Bradley appearing at the post-fight press conference in a wheel chair. While he was labeled a winner, Bradley certainly did not look the part.
Maybe that is why he returns 9 months later, not in the bright lights of Las Vegas but at the Home Depot Center in Carson, California and not in a pay-per-view mega event but an HBO televised bout against Ruslan Provodnikov (22-1). Certainly, this is a step-down from fighting one of the two biggest stars in the sport. It is only natural to consider the effect all of this may have on Bradley: the layoff, the step-down in competition, the public vitriol aimed wrongfully against him based on the decision in the Pacquiao fight. One may think this a trap fight for Bradley; another may think Bradley will be rusty given the time out of the ring, another may think his confidence is lessened given that in all reality he received his first defeat as a professional and yet another may think that the fractured left foot and swollen right ankle that Bradley suffered in the Pacquiao bout could cause him problems against Pacquiao.
All of those thoughts are valid. However, counter-arguments can be made to all of those points. The layoff could be seen as helpful to Bradley as it gave him time to recover from those injuries and get into optimal condition. Additionally, Bradley is no stranger to long layoffs, he had a 10 month layoff following his 2011 defeat of Devon Alexander, an over sixth month layoff between a 2008 victory over Edner Cherry and a 2009 unification match with Kendall Holt and a nine month layoff in between bouts with Miguel Vazquez in 2007 and Junior Witter in 2008. Thus, rust may not be an issue. Moreover, Bradley appears to be a mentally strong person, both in and out of the ring. As detailed in numerous HBO “behind the scenes” vignettes and “24/7 Pacquiao Bradley,” Bradley was raised to be a successful boxer by his strict father and is not someone who uses his spare time foolishly. Rather, he spends that time with his wife and children. He also appears to be focused in training which is guided by Joel Diaz. It is no surprise then that Bradley’s mental toughness has forged confidence in himself that would seem to be enough to overcome the public’s insistence that he lost the Pacquiao fight.
The toughest issue for Bradley then may be if this is a “trap” fight. How many times have we seen first place teams stumble against lesser opponents because they were coming off a big game and were looking ahead to an ever bigger game? Bradley is in such a position. He is coming off a Pacquiao fight and Bob Arum has said that if Pacquiao and Juan Manuel Marquez do not fight a fifth time in the fall or winter, Bradley would be in line to fight one of those stars (or, if they do fight a fifth time, Bradley could face rising action star Brandon Rios). No disrespect to Provodnikov, but he is not at that level. While he has been a regular on ESPN2’s Friday Night Fights, his level of opposition is nowhere near the caliber of fighters that Bradley has faced. In fact, it could be argued that Provodnikov’s best win was against a shot Demarcus Corley. That said, I would argue Provodnikov’s best performance was his loss to Mauricio Herrera which I scored for the Russian. Still, Herrera is not in the league of Bradley victims such as Pacquiao, Alexander, Lamont Peterson, or Vasquez.
Bradley is listed by www.sportbet.com as a -900 favorite (Provodnikov is at +600). Given Bradley’s amateur background, better level of professional competition, advantages in speed, defense and boxing ability and his offensive style, Bradley is the pick here. I will note though, and Bradley is my pick so this is not a hedge, a bet on Provodnikov is a good value bet. Remember, Bradley is not a big puncher nor is he a big welterweight. Provodnikov will not have to deal with a size disadvantage and while he is not a big puncher himself, he has a more active offensive pressure style than Bradley. That could come into play if Bradley is rusty or still nursing bad legs/feet. Moreover, he is trained by Freddie Roach and is extremely motivated. While I do not expect Provodnikov to win, it would not be utterly shocking if he did.
The televised co-featured bout will have two undefeated welterweights squaring off when Jessie Vargas (21-0) meets Wale Omotoso (23-0). This appears to be a step-up fight for both guys although Vargas does hold a disputed win over Josesito Lopez. Omotoso is the puncher and Vargas is the boxer. Jessie Vargas is -200 and Wale Omotoso is +165 according to www.bet365.com.
Author’s Record for the Year: 8-1-1 (after a 3-0 week last week capped by underdog Bernard Hopkins coming through with a win).
