The Fight Horizon – Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida

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The Fight Horizon – Vitor Belfort vs. Lyoto Machida

In a bit of a surprise announcement, UFC brass Dana White mentioned an interest in setting up Vitor Belfort against Lyoto Machida at middleweight. Belfort is famously coming off of back-to-back KO finishes of top contenders Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold, both involving kicks to the head. Machida, conversely, is coming off an upset loss to Phil Davis, a very odd and controversial unanimous decision in his home country.

White has also mentioned Machida vs. Nick Diaz at middleweight, as Diaz has expressed a desire to return to the Octagon after breaking up with a long time girlfriend. Belfort so far has turned down the fight against Machida … but there could be interest for both depending on the circumstances (as well as the results of Jon Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson and Chris Weidman vs. Anderson Silva, respectively).

The Matchup:

Lyoto Machida (19-4 overall, 11-4 in the UFC)

Strengths: Elusive striking and stand-up defense

Weaknesses: Plays it safe, fights to not lose (as opposed to winning)

Vitor Belfort (23-10 overall, 12-6 in the UFC)

Strengths: Versatile striking and KO power,

Weaknesses: Age and wear and tear, relies on TRT

The Date: TBA

Weight Class: Middleweight. This would be a change up for Lyoto Machida, who has been a former champion and mainstay of the Light-Heavyweight division.

What led to it: Belfort won his last two fights in spectacular fashion, both head kick finishes. Silva and Weidman are rematching, and there isn’t anyone higher than Belfort that’s a worthy matchup. Machida just lost a controversial decision to Phil Davis, although many would say he won the fight. He is still a top contender in the LHW division, but isn’t making a lot of noise in terms of his recent outings. Overall, it’s a strange move by the UFC, but one we have seen before.

Why it matters: Machida to middleweight? This doesn’t sound like a voluntary move by the Machida camp. This looks a lot like Frankie Edgar/Urijah Faber, two guys who are good enough to beat the rest of the division on any given day, but not quite good enough to be competitive against the champion. So what do they do? Drop down a weight class.

Machida has an elite skill set, but in his last few fights he played it extra cautious, probably more cautious than any fighter in recent memory. What’s frustrating is that he is good enough to not only do better, but probably finish the fight. He’s not going to win a lot of positive attention like that, and won’t even sniff a title shot by being average. So while he’s not earning a title shot with his actions, he is still too good to put on the backburner. Moving him to middleweight creates a lot of new potential situations, which is true every time an elite fighter switches weight classes. Machida, if he is interested, might have a golden opportunity here to fight for a title sooner rather than later, but he’d have some work to do and that would start with beating Belfort.

Belfort is terrorizing guys in the middleweight division, with back to back headkick finishes of Michael Bisping and Luke Rockhold. His last two losses have been against Anderson Silva and Jon Jones, the Jones fight being on short notice. Regardless of the outcome of the Silva vs. Weidman rematch, you’d have to think Belfort is due for another shot at the title at some point. If Weidman wins again in December, it’s almost a certainty Belfort is next up. He has the strongest case out of anyone in the division, unless Jacare Souza or Mark Munoz pull off a jaw-dropping victory.

So without an opponent in the middleweight division that would make his case stronger, they found one outside of the division in Machida. A win over Machida, especially a KO finish, and Belfort is the next challenger period.  For The Dragon, he gets a fresh start in the division and much like Frankie Edgar or Urijah Faber, because of his body of work, he could get a fast track to a title shot in a new division with a minimum of wins.

Dan is a new addition to the InsideFights team. When not teaching at the local college during his day job, he likes to ride his fixed gear bicycle around town. Given the choice, he'd rather bike than drive any day (ride on!). He also enjoys trying new craft beers and vegetarian/vegan foods, playing guitar, writing fiction and of course, catching up on all things MMA. Dan currently lives in Los Angeles with his awesome wife.