On Saturday, HBO will air an interesting split-site doubleheader. In the main event, Australian IBF middleweight titlist Daniel Geale (29-1) will make his US debut in a defense against British former title-challenger, Darren Barker (25-1). The co-featured bout will have Johnatan Romero (23-0) defending his IBF super bantamweight title against former European Champion, Kiko Martinez (28-4). Those two bouts will air live from the Revel Casino in Atlantic City, New Jersey. The opening bout will be shown on tape-delay (so stay away from boxing websites and social media if you do not want to know the result beforehand) from Cardiff, Wales and features an excellent match up between WBO light heavyweight titlist Nathan Cleverly (26-0) and rising Russian knock out artist. Sergey Kovalev (21-0-1). While the six participants are not really household names, the winners will be in a great position to challenge star fighters.
The main event is an interesting clash of styles. Geale is an aggressive offensive fighter but he does not have much power. His only loss was a controversial split-decision to Anthony Mundine which he recently avenged in convincing fashion. While Geale has not fought in the US, he is no stranger to travelling as he has, somewhat amazingly, won two decisions against popular German fighters (Sebastian Sylvester and Felix Sturm) in Germany. On the other hand, Barker is a more measured counter-puncher who also does not have much in the way of punching power. He is most noted for giving Sergio Martinez a difficult time before being knocked out in the 11th round of their October 2011 bout. Barker has rebounded with wins against pedestrian foes Kerry Hope and Simone Rotolo. Barker’s best win appears to be Italian Domenico Spada which, in all honesty is not that great a win. All in all, Geale has faced better competition, has been more active and his offensive style will probably play better to the judges than Barker’s slicker style. Geale is about a two to one favorite (www.sportbet.com has him at -200 and Barker at +170; www.bet365.com has Geale at 1-2 and Barker at 13-8; and www.bovada.lv has Geale at -205 and Barker at +165). That sounds about right… Geale is the pick. By the way, don’t get your hopes up for the winner facing Gennady Golovkin in a unification fight this year… the IBF has mandated that the winner face Sturm (in a fight that is easier than facing Golovkin and may be just a lucrative).
The Romero-Martinez fight is somewhat difficult to handicap given that neither guy has gotten much exposure in the US. The Columbian titlist has wins over Chris Avalos, Efrain Esquivas and Alejandro Lopez (in his title winning effort in Lopez’ home country of Mexico). Interestingly, Romero has only fought outside of his native Columbia five times and he has failed to score a knock out in any of those fights. This may lead you to think pulling for the upset may be in order. However, Martinez has never really fought at the world level. Following a first round knock out victory over Bernard Dunne to win the European title, he suffered losses to Rendall Monroe. More recently, he was stopped by impressive prospect Carl Frampton. Also, this show is being put on by Romero’s promoter Gary Shaw in order to make Romero look good and be considered a viable opponent for Guillermo Rigondeaux or Nonito Donaire. The odds reflect that status (Sportbet has Romero at -550; Bet365 lists Martinez at 7-2; and Bovada has Romero at -600). Romero is the pick.
The most interesting fight and potentially most exciting is the clash between Cleverly and Kovalev. The British titlist is a speedy boxer with good defensive skills and not much power. Kovalev, on the other hand, is a heavy handed pressure fighter. The Russian has been winning a lot of fights by early knock out so we do not know much about his defensive skills. He does have noted trainer John David Jackson in his corner so he must have some good defensive moves. Kovalev’s victories over Gabriel Campillo and Cornelius White seem to be more impressive than Cleverly’s decision victories over Tony Bellew and Robin Krasniqi. That said, Cleverly is fighting in his hometown in front of what should be a very loud fanbase that could sway the judges. Basically, if this goes to a decision, Cleverly will win it. So the question is… can Kovalev stop Cleverly. The oddsmakers are split on whether he can (Sportbet has Kovalev at -100; Bet365 has it an even money fight; Bovada lists Kovalev at -130 and Cleverly at even money). Kovalev has been more active and is a hot fighter right now… Kovalev is the pick.
If those three picks are not enough for you, here are some more. On the Cleverly-Kovalev undercard, Ovill McKenzie takes on Enzo Maccarinelli. I don’t know anything about McKenzie but Macca is so far beyond a shot fighter who cannot take the lightest of punches that this is easy money. McKenzie (Bovada -270; SportBet 2-5; Bet 365 -260) is the pick. ESPN2’s Friday Night Fights will be televising two fights from US Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. The first fight is a heavyweight rematch between Artur Szpilka (15-0) and Mike Mollo (20-4-1). Szpilka-Mollo 1 was a spectacular and bloody pier six brawl that had the few fans that saw it cheering hysterically. The Polish fighter had to come off the canvas to win by sixth round knock out. He has won two fights in Poland since that January war while Mollo has been inactive. Neither guy will resemble Pernell Whitaker but it should be another wonderful brawl. Szpilka is a big favorite (SportBet lists him at -380; Bet365 at 1-4; and Bovada at -400) and he is the pick. The ESPN2 main event features a clash between light heavyweight contenders Andrzej Fonfara (23-2) and Campillo (21-5-1). The winner will be the mandatory challenger for IBF titlist Bernard Hopkins. The oddsmakers see Fonfara as the favorite (SportBet -240; Bet360 4-9; and Bovada -250) most likely because he is on a roll and will be fighting in front of a lot of Polish fans. That said, his resume does not include anyone as skilled as Campillo who needs a win in the worst way. Also, we have taken all favorites so we need an underdog. Campillo is the pick.
Author’s Record for the Year: 46-13-3 (My last set of picks, July 26, 2013, was a complete sweep that included a big upset winner when Jose Soto-Karass knocked out Andre Berto. Another six for six would be huge!)
