Wednesday night is alright for fighting, I’ve always thought, and in a week’s time we get three really good cards from the UFC. Two are on Fox Sports 1, which will be a good test of the UFC’s drawing power on cable, and one’s on PPV with potentially the fight of the year as the main event. It doesn’t get better than this … and now it’s time to break down the first card of the next seven days.
Joining me are Adam Keyes, Ryan Frederick and Luke Cho-Yee
Carlos Condit v Martin Kampmann
Luke Cho-Yee: The first fight was very close and I expect the rematch to be just as intense and competitive. Condit has gone on to contend for the title while Kampmann has fallen a fraction short when presented with title fight implications. I expect Condit to start strong and remain ahead in a titanic clash that will provide plenty of drama. Condit
Adam Keyes: It’s been over four years since these two last shared a cage and a lot has happened in that time; most significantly, Carlos Condit has progressed a lot further than his Danish opponent. Kampmann has become somewhat of a gatekeeper in the welterweight division of late, a nearly man, someone always on the cusp of a title shot or the least favoured option in a no.1 contender’s bout. Once again I expect Kampmann to play the role of the bridesmaid here with Condit displaying greater range, diversity and power on the feet to dispose of Kampmann in the later rounds. Condit
Scott Sawitz: Four years ago Martin Kampmann welcomed the highly touted WEC champion into the UFC, winning an insanely close decision that I scored for Condit. I kept thinking we needed two more rounds to really see who’s better … and now we get it. Good lord we are blessed as MMA fans sometimes .. especially since five rounds of high octane violence from these two might give us a fight of the year. The interesting thing is how far both guys have progressed, career wise, since then. They were both burgeoning prospects back then and now … now they’re two of the top five in the world. Kampmann’s chin is still suspect, though, and Condit is going to light him up if he gets the opportunity. I think this goes into the later rounds … and Condit winds up with a finish somewhere then. Condit.
Ryan Frederick: I absolutely loved their first fight, and it could have gone either way. Personally, I thought Condit won that fight. It was razor-close and both have gotten better since that fight. I think Condit has improved more between the two, and the big fights he has been in during his last three bouts should have him really prepared. This will be fun like their first fight, but I have Condit in this one. Condit
Cerrone v Dos Anjos
CY: Dos Anjos has really begun to mature and develop into a fully fledged mixed martial artist but Cerrone will provide a stiff test for the Brazilian, having fought the tougher competition, albeit with mixed results. I believe Cerrone to be the more polished striker and his championship experience will ensure he is not overawed in the grappling exchanges either. Cerrone
Keyes: Cerrone looked back to his best against KJ Noons and proved that he has a few more wrinkles in his game other than his lauded striking ability, as ‘Cowboy’ threw in a few takedowns for good measure to keep Noons guessing. Dos Anjos has looked very good himself lately and has been building up a nice little streak in the lightweight division, however Cerrone will be by far the most accomplished opponent he has faced in some time. Dos Anjos will hold a grappling advantage over Cerrone but whether he can get him down is another thing. I see Cerrone dictating things on the feet and displaying enough defensive wrestling acumen in order to secure a unanimous decision. Cerrone
Sawitz: I love Cerrone, have since his WEC days, but the more he fights in the UFC the more I doubt his ability to become the elite fighter I thought he was there. I thought he and Benson Henderson would have a UFC trilogy when the WEC was merged into the UFC; in my lightweight rankings I had them both as Top Five guys. The more he fights in the UFC the more I doubt that ranking … he’s still a Top 10 fighter but I’m not sure if he’s elite. I love Dos Anjos in this fight and I can’t put my finger on why. Dos Anjos
Frederick: I’m really looking forward to this fight, and it could be as much fun as the main event. Cerrone has been brilliant in fights, but he has frozen against top-ten competition. Dos Anjos is a top-ten fighter. I do like Cerrone in this bout though, but Dos Anjos can do just enough to squeak a decision. Cerrone needs to be on top of his game in this one. Cerrone
Gastelum v Melancon
CY: Good challenge for the most recent TUF winner. Gastelum upset the apple cart with his win over Uriah Hall and now he will be expected to capitalise on that success, bereft of his underdog tag. Melancon is a solid fighter with good hands and will not be afraid to stand toe-to-toe with Gastelum. I foresee a close fight that will be determined by who can edge the grappling exchanges. Gastelum
Keyes: A TUF winner tends to be given an easier road to travel on in order to build him up as best as possible and this is the case again for Gastelum. While Melancon is not a pushover by any means, and looked good in his last fight KO’ing Seth Baczynski, this fight has been set up to ease Gastelum into the deep waters of the welterweight division. Gastelum
Sawitz: History has this awful knack of repeating itself … and if Uriah Hall is last season’s Philippe Nover then Gastelum could wind up being Efrain Escudero. Melancon isn’t an easy fight to start your career with … and I think Gastelum can’t hang with him. Melancon
Frederick: Gastelum was an unlikely winner on the past season of The Ultimate Fighter, but he has tons of potential and is young and raw. Melancon surprised many by not only beating Seth Baczynski, but in the way he did it. Kudos to him for taking this fight on short notice, and while he has more experience than Gastelum, Gastelum has more room for improvement. Gastelum
McGee v Whittaker
CY: Good match-up. McGee has had mixed results since winning season eleven of TUF while Whittaker has progressed well after his success on The Smashes series. McGee has the more complete game while Whittaker is a natural hitter and I expect a clash of styles as both men try to impose their strategy. McGee should look to ground his opponent where he will hold a considerable advantage and I expect his experience to prove the decisive factor in a lively contest. McGee
Keyes: In a battle of two former TUF winners, I’m going to go for McGee. Whittaker looked good in pulling off somewhat of an upset in his last performance against Colton Smith but I feel that McGee will have the physical advantages required to triumph over the Australian. McGee
Sawitz: Whittaker was the best prospect out of Australia in some time when he went on the TUF: Smashes series. McGee has an incredible chin and Whittaker is going to test it early and often. Is he ready for this? That’s what concerns me. This early in his career against a veteran like McGee means the UFC has high hopes for him. I think he pulls out a good decision win here that’s closer on the cards than in the ring. Whittaker
Frederick: Whittaker is the betting favorite in this one, and while he has a lot of potential, I don’t understand why he’s the favorite. McGee is a real solid fighter and should only have one loss in the UFC. He flat out got screwed against Nick Ring but he had an excellent performance in his win over Josh Neer. This will likely be a fun one as well. McGee’s experience gives him the edge. McGee
Mizugaki v Perez
CY: Mizugaki always brings it to the fullest and after an inconsistent run he will look to derail a star in the making and aim toward the heights of the bantamweight division. Perez is a very dangerous young fighter who has already shown the potential to become a future contender, yet this fight will provide a definitive answer on where he now stands in the division. I expect a really tough drawn out battle with Mizugaki withstanding the Perez onslaught but ultimately losing the war. Perez
Keyes: Mizugaki is a solid if unspectacular bantamweight who seems to be unable to progress past the role of gatekeeper. Perez should have enough about him in order to deal with Mizugaki’s wrestling game and close this one out with a KO/TKO finish. Perez
Sawitz: Perez is being set up as a crossover star into the Mexican market. Considering he was born there, as well, he’ll be the guy that potentially headlines the first card south of the border if it isn’t Cain Velasquez. Mizugaki is a tough out … but it’s a winnable fight for him. Perez
Frederick: This one got the bump from the preliminary card to the main card when another bout was cancelled. Mizugaki has a lot of toughness and Perez is coming back from what could’ve been a career-ending staph infection. The UFC is building up Perez as a new Mexican superstar, and he will have to win the tough fights if he is going to break into that upper-echelon. I think he gets this one. Perez
Tavares v McDaniel
CY: McDaniel did not have the best of times on TUF but bounced back impressively in his last outing and will hope to put the series behind him and like his opponent, concentrate on becoming a staple in the UFC middleweight division. Tavares has started to find his rhythm and has looked impressive amid his three fight win streak having reached the semis of TUF eleven. I imagine McDaniel will try to bring the fight to the mat where he will be most dangerous, having sixteen submission victories to his name but I expect Tavares to be too slick on the feet and dominate the striking exchanges. Tavares
Keyes: For me Tavares will have way too much for McDaniel here and should not have too much of a problem in taking this one. Tavares has fought a lot better competition than Bubba of late, as well as holding a size advantage and I expect him to overcome McDaniel’s rangy striking and jiu-jitsu game with relative ease. Tavares
Sawitz: Tavares is a good fighter but McDaniel has all the pedigree of potentially being an elite middleweight. He comes from a great camp and is the training partner of Jon Jones. When you work with a guy as good as Jones you have to be good; the champion’s training partner has to emulate a lot of different guys and has to keep up with the elite of the elite. McDaniel was a guy who’ll have a better career than his stay on TUF represented; he cuts a ton of weight and being able to do so multiple times in six weeks affected him. Given three months … he’ll look great. McDaniel.
Frederick: This is a nice, solid opener for this card and could bring plenty of action. Tavares probably deserves a fighter higher up in the rankings, but he can only blame himself as he hasn’t shown the finishing ability he needs to compete in the middleweight division. McDaniel is a finisher and has a great training camp and the experience edge, but Tavares has more talent between the two. Tavares