Ben Rothwell (32-9, 2-3 UFC) vs. Brandon Vera (12-6 1 NC, 8-6 1 NC UFC)
Rothwell and Vera find themselves in a pivotal heavyweight bout as the loser of this bout could find their UFC careers coming to a close, and the winner will live to fight another day. Rothwell is under the .500 mark in his UFC career following his last fight, which was a submission loss to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC On FX 7 in January. He is 2-3 over his last five fights, all of which came in the UFC. Vera returns after a year off following a loss to Mauricio Rua last August. He is 1-3 with a no contest over his last five fights.
Fight Breakdown- Rothwell has been attempting to re-invent himself over his last few fights, and his transformation was looking good until running into a fellow heavyweight who is trying to re-invent himself in Gonzaga. Rothwell famously gassed badly in a loss to Mark Hunt at UFC 135 in September 2011, but when we next saw him at UFC 145 in April 2012, it was a completely different looking Rothwell. Leaner and meaner, he scored a 70-second knockout of Brendan Schaub at that event. He looked ready to make a real run at the UFC Heavyweight Championship, and he came in as equally as good shape against Gonzaga. However, he admitted to some outside issues, and whether that was a factor in his loss to Gonzaga is up for debate, but he needs to get back in the win column if he wants to continue fighting in the UFC.
The same could be said for Vera, a man who once famously stated that he was going to hold both the UFC Heavyweight and Light Heavyweight Championships. He had a title shot locked up following an 8-0 start to his career, but a contract dispute took him out of the sport for nearly a year when he had tons of momentum. He hasn’t been the same since then as he has just four wins in his last eleven fights, and while he was cut once before until a loophole got him back in the UFC, another loss could be the one that permanently ends Vera’s UFC career. Vera is coming off what many are calling a career-best performance against Rua at UFC On FOX 4 last August, but it was still a loss, and he had a chance of winning that fight. He gassed badly, much like Rua, but Rua was able to take advantage and get the knockout win. A close loss to Randy Couture may have hurt his confidence, but he has never been the same since Jon Jones broke his face with an elbow. He is going to need a new career-best performance against Rothwell.
With Rothwell’s size and power, this fight could be ended with one punch. Rothwell packs a heavy punch, and he has a wide range of weapons to attack with as he has decent kickboxing. Vera has excellent kickboxing, and he will have the speed advantage over Rothwell. Vera is a versatile striker who mixes solid kicks and knees, and he has exceptional agility. He also has a relentless style and likes to get into brawls, though a brawl may favor Rothwell due to the sheer power that Rothwell has. The last time Vera fought in a heavyweight bout, he weighed in at 228 pounds. He probably will be around that weight while Rothwell pushes the 260-pound mark. That is a lot of size that Vera will be giving up on top of giving up three inches in reach. Vera should look to use his kicking to neutralize the size of Rothwell and make this fight be one fought at a distance.
Vera is actually a very well-rounded fighter and he has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, though you may never know that as he prefers a stand-up fight. Rothwell has good wrestling and may look to take the fight to the ground if he finds his legs being chopped down consistently by Vera. His ground skill is enough to where he should be able to neutralize Rothwell if he ends up on his back, so Vera needs to use his striking to win this fight. Vera may look for a takedown from the clinch, but Rothwell should use his size for solid defense and look to eat away at Vera with dirty boxing. Both men possess the power to knock each other out, and neither man is afraid to engage in a brawl. Conditioning will be a factor if this fight makes it out of the first round, and both are notorious for getting tired. Vera not having to cut weight may actually help his cardio, and it could be the very key to his winning. This will be a close one, and could be the most entertaining fight on a card full of potentially entertaining fights, but I see Vera getting his hand raised.
Why It Matters- This matters big time for both guys. The loser likely gets cut and the winner lives to fight another day in the UFC. Both have shown they won’t be fighting for championships outside of a miracle turnaround in their careers. It is do-or-die for both, and with both looking to make a statement that they belong in the UFC, it has the means for a war and an entertaining battle. Rothwell is a local favorite and would love to make the crowd happy with a big knockout win. Vera wants to show that the potential is still there. This is big for both men.
Prediction- Vera
