A pivotal matchup in the Featherweight division takes up the third slot on the main card for UFC 164, headlined by Henderson vs. Pettis II. Clay “The Carpenter” Guida takes on #1 contender Chad “Money” Mendes in a fight that could very well determine who gets the next crack at FW kingpin Jose Aldo.
Fighter Summary
Clay Guida (30-13 overall, 10-7 UFC)
Strengths: Wild energy and cardio, well-rounded, good takedowns and ground and pound
Weaknesses: Lacks finishing power, inconsistent at times
Chad Mendes (14-1 overall, 5-1 UFC)
Strengths: Strength, punching power, wrestling
Weaknesses: Best performances in UFC against sub-par competition
Fight Breakdown
This is really going to depend on which version of Clay Guida we see. The guy who fought Diego Sanchez is probably gone for good, but that’s a positive for Guida, who has to channel his energy and fight composed. He tried to do that against Gray Maynard, but pushed it just a little too far on the safe side. His tilt with Hatsu Hioki got him back on track, but looking at Hioki’s record in the UFC makes his victory less impressive. Either way, expect Guida to come out with a ton of movement and energy.
Both of these guys have a lot of energy and great cardio, so they will probably set a frantic pace from the opening bell. Guida is most likely going to dance around on the outside while Mendes stays in pursuit, looking to land some heavy punches. Guida has to keep moving and utilize that infamous head movement and level changing that has frustrated opponents countless times. He can’t let Mendes dictate the flow of the fight and he certainly doesn’t want to let Mendes find his range and get in any sort of rhythm.
Mendes has shown his power in the stand-up ever since his loss to Aldo and the addition of Duane Ludwig to Team Alpha Male. Three consecutive first round KO victories. While the competition wasn’t exactly the best of the featherweight division, Mendes did what was expected: he won and won impressively. If Guida wants to avoid being the fourth victim, he has to stay away from Mendes’ power – a difficult feat to accomplish when you consider Mendes’ speed.
Mendes can cover ground in a hurry and is also a solid counter-puncher, so Guida has to be careful in his approach. Expect Guida to mix things up with a ton of feints and stay away from positions where Mendes can catch him. The last thing Guida wants to do is consistently walk into Mendes’ punching range, or move straight back against the cage with Mendes stalking forward. That’s just asking for trouble.
Guida’s best chance of winning this thing is making it ugly. He has to bounce around and keep Money off balance. Guida wants Mendes worrying more about defending himself than lashing out with those powerful strikes. Striking from the outside and dodging away, with the occasional clinch and takedown attempt would be a solid foundation to begin with for this fight. Silly as it sounds, a good barometer of how well Guida is doing might be how much his hair is flying around. If his hair is for the most part staying still and not moving a whole lot, it’s not a good sign. But if his hair is waving all around for the majority of each round, chances are he’s moving well and avoiding a lot of damage.
Key to Victory: Mendes’ power and speed
It’s going to be the deciding factor in this fight. If Mendes finds a way to land on Guida with any sort of consistency, he’s going to hurt him and get another stoppage. We haven’t seen Mendes past the first two minutes of a fight since his loss to Aldo. Guida has to be the one to take him there if he wants to win this one, but in order to do that, he has to avoid the inevitable barrages that Mendes is going to bring. If he can survive those, then it’s anybody’s fight. But Mendes will have the advantage in terms of striking, especially early in the fight.
Why It Matters – It’s still a little too early for Jose Aldo rematch talk for Chad Mendes. Guida could steal into the title picture here with an uber-impressive victory, but it’s unlikely and even if he did pull off a highlight reel finish, the picture at featherweight is already crowded. Ricardo Lamas and Cub Swanson could both make a case for a shot at Aldo, and we may see a title eliminator between the two.
The manner in which Mendes lost to Aldo makes a rematch hard to make. It’s a lot like Vitor Belfort’s loss to Anderson Silva, he got finished in jaw-dropping fashion, but afterward, he pretty much cleaned house and beat every comer ranked below him. Yet another title fight still seems unwarranted. Mendes is in that same spot and he is just blazing through guys, but another date with Jose Aldo just doesn’t seem realistic. If Aldo chooses to stay at FW, we would probably be looking at a pair of title eliminators to see who gets the next crack, and the winner of this fight would be one of the participants, along with Cub Swanson, Ricardo Lamas and Frankie Edgar. Anything is possible for the winner, considering the dreaded injury bug and various scenarios that could play out in the FW division. But first he has to win.
The loser wouldn’t exactly slide down the ladder, but a loss here would mean putting together another nice win streak to justify a title shot. That’s not something either guy wants to do, especially Mendes, who has built a nice three fight streak already. Look for Mendes to ride his momentum and fight his way up until a title shot would be too hard to ignore.
Prediction – Mendes
