UFC 164 (Benson Henderson vs. Anthony Pettis 2) – Erik Koch vs. Dustin Poirier Preview, Breakdown, Prediction

Previews

Erik Koch (13-2, 2-1 UFC) vs. Dustin Poirier (13-3, 5-2 UFC)

Two featherweights looking to break back into the title picture finally square off in the night’s main card opener. Koch and Poirier were originally scheduled to meet at UFC 143 in February 2012 before Koch pulled out due to injury. Koch was last seen in January when he was defeated by Ricardo Lamas at UFC On FOX 6. Koch is 4-1 over his last five fights. Poirier looks to get back in the win column following a decision loss to Cub Swanson at UFC On FUEL TV 7 in February. Poirier is 3-2 over his last five fights.

Fight Breakdown- Koch has been battling some injury issues and some cases of bad luck and has fought just once over the span of nearly two years, and it has led to him falling out of the title picture. Koch started off his career with nine straight wins before running into a tough Chad Mendes, who handed Koch his first career loss. Koch then came back strong and scored four straight wins to get him set up for a showdown with Poirier to secure a potential title shot. Koch was the one who pulled out due to injury in their originally scheduled bout, but despite Poirier still going on to win at UFC 143, it was Koch who was given the next title shot. Koch was slated to fight Jose Aldo at UFC 149 in July 2012, but Aldo was forced out with an injury. Koch kept a title shot and was again set to meet Aldo at UFC 153, but a knee injury forced Koch out. When it was time for him to return, it wasn’t to fight Aldo, but instead to fight Lamas, and Lamas knocked Koch right out of the title hunt. With Koch just slightly hanging onto top-ten status, he looks ready to make a statement in front of a crowd that will be on his side.

Poirier was one of the hottest fighters in the UFC’s newly-created featherweight division, and he made a quick statement that he was going to be a contender with a dominant win over Josh Grispi in his UFC debut in January 2011. Poirier then scored wins over Jason Young, Pablo Garza and Max Holloway to run his win streak to five straight, and he seemed poised for a title shot. Poirier admitted he didn’t feel ready for the title opportunity, and a fight with Chan Sung Jung was set up for the main event of UFC On FUEL TV 3 in May 2012. In what was named the Fight Of The Year for 2012, Jung submitted Poirier in the fourth-round, ending his win streak and taking him out of the title picture for the time being. Poirier got back on track with a first-round submission of former “TUF” winner Jonathan Brookins, but now finds himself looking to get back into the win column after the February loss to Swanson. Poirier did take the fight with Swanson with just one month’s notice, and he gets a full training camp as he finally faces Koch in a long-anticipated bout.

Koch and Poirier are both well-rounded fighters with excellent submission games and solid power in their striking attacks, and they really are mirror images of one another. When both have their heads shaved, you could literally put them right next to each other and think they’re brothers- that’s how much of a mirror image of each other they are. Koch should be looking to mix his strikes up with takedown attempts to where he can look for a submission. Koch has seven submission wins under his belt, and while Poirier has only been finished once, it was from a submission. Koch has the slight edge on the feet mainly due to his Taekwondo background, and he will look to keep Poirier at a distance with leg kicks, so Poirier will be needing to check those routinely.

While Koch may be the one who gets the takedown and top position, Poirier is better with his submission game. Poirier has a brown belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, and his last three wins have come by submission. While Koch has never been submitted before, Poirier’s dynamic submission attack will put Koch to the test. While both will be looking for the submission if and when the fight hits the mat, the fight will likely be decided by which man wins the battle on the feet, and that is where things will get interesting. With both men being very tough to finish despite what recent results may indicate, this one looks like it will be headed to the judges. Poirier may be the slightly better fighter of the two, but Koch having the crowd behind him could give him a much-need boost of confidence and the push to win the fight, and the crowd could influence the judges. It will be all about who pushes the pace and wins the fight on the feet. I lean slightly towards Poirier in a toss-up fight.

Why It Matters- It’s all about getting back into the title picture for both men, and a win does exactly that for both. A loss would be the first two-fight losing streak for both, and neither wants to have that. Koch had that title opportunity slip right out of his hands due to injuries to himself and champion Jose Aldo. Poirier was one fight away from fighting for the title, but Chan Sung Jung ended that. It is a huge fight for both men, and both want to make a statement that they will be fighting for the title in the near future.

Prediction- Poirier

Ryan Frederick has been a diehard mixed martial arts fan since he saw UFC 1 at the age of 7. Since then he has yet to miss a show. He also has loves for football, baseball and fine whiskey. He fell in love with covering MMA after having also covered baseball and football, both professional and college, while working towards a journalism degree at Texas Christian University. His work has been seen on FOXSports.com, InsideFights.com, WrestlingObserver.com, Bleacher Report and ToughTalkMMA.com.