It was the final fight in WEC history and one that wasn’t supposed to turn out like how it was supposed to. Henderson was favored by many and expected to take the WEC title with him to the UFC, where he’d challenge the winner of Frankie Edgar vs. Gray Maynard. Many, myself included, thought Benson Henderson was the best lightweight in the world.
And then Anthony Pettis showed up looking for a war … and got it.
Now, an insanely close fight that essentially hinged off one spectacular kick later, we find both guys fighting for the UFC belt. Pettis won the fight but Henderson got the first title shot. Life is funny that way; Henderson went on a winning streak while Pettis was the victim of Edgar/Maynard 2 winding up in a draw, and then postponed due to injuries. “Showtime” wound up the victim of Clay Guida’s smothering style and Henderson worked his way up the ladder, taking two wins from Frankie Edgar to solidify himself on top.
Now Pettis finds himself in the driver’s seat, challenging for a title two and half years after he was supposed to.
Fight Breakdown: There are few fights in any given year that turn off the MMA media eye in me. This is one of them. I’m giddy to watch this … and it’s such a crazy close style matchup that we’re probably looking at the fight of 2013 right here.
A key factor coming in will be those 25 minutes they spent locked in a cage together. There’s a familiarity both will have one another; Henderson knows how strong Pettis is in the clinch, et al, and Pettis knows how hard Henderson punches. There won’t be surprises on a raw, primal level from either guy. It’s not like there was a quick finish or the first fight was three rounds; 25 minutes can be a lifetime in the cage and both guys have spent the functional equivalent of two regular fights inside a cage against one another.
Anthony Pettis will want to stay on his feet and strike with Henderson. While he has a great ground game, and improving takedowns, Pettis is at his best when he’s given space to create. Lost in his body shot KO of Donald Cerrone was a knee to the head of the “Cowboy” that started with a jump off the cage. I was sitting next to AJ Perez at the UFC on Fox in Chicago when he did that and I tried to say “Did he just jump off the cage to knee him in the face?” … but stopped midway because Pettis finished him with a body shot so vicious it could be heard loudly. Half of press row gasped it was so hard; seeing Cerrone wince and fall down because it got hit so hard is something Henderson needs to be aware of. Pettis hits harder than most of the lightweight division and does it creatively; he has an explosive dynamism in how he moves and how he strikes that is impressive.
Pettis capable of taking this fight to the ground but he’s not a good enough wrestler to get Henderson there; historically he avoids takedowns at about a 2/3 clip and the only one who’s managed to really get him to the ground for more than just a brief spell is Frankie Edgar. And even then Frankie had a tough time doing so; Pettis may be more explosive but he’s not a good enough wrestler to get Henderson down repeatedly.
His takedowns have improved dramatically by working with Ben Askren … but Henderson is elite in that regard. His offense works best when he’s standing, as well, and look for him to follow the Chuck Liddell “sprawl and brawl” playbook for this fight. Pettis has a distinct advantage on his feet as well as a confidence you can’t teach or give. He’s beaten Henderson before and it will weight on the minds of both men come fight time. There won’t be an intimidation factor in a title fight for Pettis; he’s stared across from Henderson before, a title on the line, and won. That means more than numbers can tell us.
The key will be winning exchanges and rounds; Henderson has a way of keeping fights close because he never really looks like he gets hurt. He doesn’t bleed or bruise up all that much, either, and that will be factor. Pettis has to outland and outwork Henderson, who has a deep gas tank, on a consistent basis. Pettis probably won’t finish Henderson … but if he can storm out early and take the first three decisively he can win the fight. Henderson has been winning lately by out-working guys just enough to win rounds but he has this bad tendency to keep things close; Henderson really turns up the voltage the longer the fight goes and he tends to win those later rounds regularly.
That’s the key to beating Henderson, who doesn’t gas. You can’t keep it close, to the point where you could score it 29-28 either way after three, because Henderson keeps getting judges to score him those super close rounds. Some people have him at 1-3 in his last four fights because of it; the only championship fight he’s won dominantly was over Nate Diaz. Both Edgar fights, as well as his matchup against Gil Melendez, were both insanely close and yet Henderson got the nod all three times.
All three wins were because he got the nod every time it was close … Henderson is the guy who gets the nod when it gets close.
He also has the advantage of experience inside the UFC, as well. He’s notched nearly 30 rounds in the UFC so far against seven for Pettis; his body is used to going 25 and he knows exactly what to do to prepare for a title fight. It’s one of his best weapons, as he pushes the pace hard from the outset and keeps going the longer the fight goes.
Henderson’s key is to keep doing what he does; keep it close and appear to outwork guys. He has a great style matchup with Pettis and not much really has changed since they fought the first time. Both are just better at what they do best. Look for Henderson to stay on the outside, land leg kicks and prevent Pettis from landing anything big. His size will come into play as well; if he can get Pettis down he can control him; Pettis isn’t a big lightweight and can be held down by guys with position on the ground. Clay Guida did it to him and Henderson is better at MMA wrestling and top control than Guida.
Why it matters: Ben Henderson is in the same spot he was now as he was before the Diaz fight; he needs a dominant win to establish his legitimacy. When people don’t think you’re the best in the world, only the best at getting judges to score you close rounds, there’s nothing you can do besides finish guys to change that notion. Many people still think Frankie Edgar is the best lightweight in the world because of it; Henderson needs a win, preferably a finish, to get that same level of begrudging respect that longtime titleholders like Jose Aldo, GSP, et al, get. He needs to be dominant to really be the #1, not the “#1 in the rankings, but not sure if he’s the best” that a lot of people talk about him as.
For Pettis this is his moment to fight for a UFC title. He’s long been considered the best fighter in the UFC without a belt and he also has the distinction of being the only man in the UFC with a win over Benson Henderson. That means a lot … and the table has been set for a big time win for him. He’s in his hometown against a champion he’s beaten before. The champion is coming off a win which many people felt was a loss. The challenger stopped one of the toughest outs in the lightweight division.
Prediction: Henderson
