UFC Fight Night 29 (Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields) – Jake Shields vs. Demian Maia Breakdown, Preview, Prediction

Previews

It’ll either be a brilliant grappling match … or five rounds of awful, awful stand up. It’s a great matchup on paper, though, as Demian Maia takes on Jake Shields in the main event of tonight’s card.

Fight Breakdown: Demian Maia has been a man reborn ever since he dropped to 170 after being a longtime contender at middleweight. Apparently 185 was an easy cut for him, shocking because he looks like a good sized middleweight, and 170 is manageable for him. The old Maia that we fell in love with at the start of his UFC career, the “hell or high water” grappler, seems to have come back now that he’s at a more natural weight class for him.

Maia’s game has been pretty simple at 170: get close, drag his opponent down and try to choke him out. This is the Maia that debuted in the UFC, the super grappler who didn’t want to get into a stand up battle. And then he reinvented himself as a mediocre kickboxer who could grind out a win that way; at 170 he seems to be back to using his grappling as his means of winning. His stand up is improved but don’t kid yourself: he’s still one of the elite of the elites when it comes to sport BJJ. If history repeats itself Maia will be looking to get this to the ground ASAP and look for superior position.

Jake Shields, on the other hand, has kind of floundered since he came into the UFC. After a decision win to Martin Kampmann (one many felt he lost) he lost an awful decision to Georges St. Pierre and has kind of been just another guy since. A move up to 185 produced a win over Ed Herman but a failed drug test afterward has left him in an odd place. He’d be ideal at 178 or so; he’s a small middleweight who has a rough cut to make 170. It can lead his gas tank to expiring sooner than anticipated, as well, at 170. At 185 he rarely gassed and at 170 the third round has been hard on him.

Shields has one of two ways he’ll win. He’ll do just enough on his feet against grapplers willing to stand with him, like he did recently against Tyrone Woodley. Or he’ll get top position off a takedown and grind out a win. He has a brilliant top positional game, and elite level submissions, but he’s very cautious in how he pursues it. He won’t sacrifice position for a finish; he’s content to grind until he can grab something high percentage and finish that way.

Neither way is particularly beautiful to watch at times but it’s effective; Shields has a fairly stellar resume. He’s a top 10 welterweight, though closer to the bottom than the top.

The interesting thing about this fight is if it actually gets to the ground. Maia’s been hell bent as of late to get it there and Shields is no slouch in that department. Part of me wishes they would ban striking for this fight and make both guys grapple for 25 minutes.

That’ll be way more exciting than the probable 25 minute sloppy kickboxing bout that’ll probably happen if Maia can’t find a way to get this to the ground quickly. Shields is content to trade, and play the cage-dancing game, long enough to get a close win if he doesn’t want to grapple. Usually it’s against guys who are quality grapplers and wrestlers, which Maia definitely is, and Shields is just good enough to outland people most times.

If Shields is comfortable playing BJJ with Maia going in, or Maia forces him too, this could be an absolutely fun fight on that alone. Unfortunately the problem is that Shields knows better; his BJJ is excellent but he’s going against the best BJJ player in the division (and one of the best in the world). He’s going to try to keep it standing and make this a sloppy brawl between drunks behind a bar in Pigsknuckle, AR. It’ll be up to Maia to get it to the ground and make it interesting there; Shields will be cautious on the ground and the phrase “lay and pray” will be bandied about if he scores top position for any meaningful length of time.

Why it matters: With a win Maia gets closer to a title shot, probably a win away (at most) depending on the result of Condit/Brown. A Condit win, as well as Maia winning in spectacular fashion, gets him the winner of GSP/Hendricks. It’s an easy matchup to make and Maia has the bonafides to make it a bankable fight.

A Shields win puts him in the same class as everyone else who’s lost to GSP; looking on the outside, trying to get back into the mix.

Prediction: Maia