UFC Fight Night 29 (Demian Maia vs. Jake Shields)- Rousimar Palhares vs. Mike Pierce Preview, Breakdown, Prediction

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Rousimar Palhares (14-5, 7-4 UFC) vs. Mike Pierce (17-5, 9-3 UFC)

With injuries knocking a bout between Rony Jason and Jeremy Stephens from the card, Palhares and Pierce get the bump up from featured prelim to the main card in a welterweight bout that is very interesting for a lot of reasons. Palhares has lost two straight and is looking to bounce back from a knockout loss to Hector Lombard at UFC On FX 6 in December. He is 3-2 over has last five fights. Meanwhile, Pierce has won four straight fights and is 5-1 over his last six fights. He last fought in July when he knocked out David Mitchell at UFC 162.

Fight Breakdown- Palhares has fought all eleven of his prior UFC bouts as a middleweight, and his losses have come to some of the best at 185 pounds. He lost to Dan Henderson, Nate Marquardt, Alan Belcher and Hector Lombard at middleweight, and it showed that while he can win fights against lesser caliber opponents but has trouble with the high-caliber middleweights. He decided to make the move down to welterweight to try and get into title contention, but he does that under the sting of coming back from a nine-month suspension for a failed drug test. He failed the test following his loss to Lombard, testing positive for elevated testosterone levels. It added an ugly mark to two straight knockout losses, and has put Palhares in a position of being in almost a must-win situation as he fights at 170 pounds for the first time. Worse off, he fights a fighter who is on an impressive win streak.

Pierce is a measuring stick in the welterweight division. He has been on the brink of title contention for a few years now, but much like Palhares, once he faces the best of the best in the division, he comes up just a tad short. He only has three losses in twelve UFC fights, but the three losses have come to fighters who have gotten title shots- Jon Fitch, Johny Hendricks and Josh Koscheck. His last loss, to Koscheck, came at UFC 143 in February 2012, and he has since scored four straight wins over Carlos Eduardo Rocha, Aaron Simpson, Seth Baczynski and David Mitchell. Despite the 9-3 record, Pierce has mainly been stuck in the preliminary card due to the nature of his fights, which aren’t always the most crowd pleasing bouts. This fight with Palhares was intended to be the featured prelim on this fight card, but injuries moved it up to the main card, and now Pierce has the chance to make a statement that he belongs on the main card for good.

Pierce wants to use his wrestling to control fights and he likes to establish his dominance with takedowns and steady top control. It may be a style that gets deemed boring, but it is effective, and, most importantly, it wins him fights. He also has a draining clinch game and he works well in close quarters. Palhares has a questionable chin and has the tendency to make mental mistakes which have led to him losing fights. If he has a lapse in judgement, Pierce is going to make him pay for it. Pierce hits hard enough to get Palhares in trouble, and his dirty boxing in the clinch is good enough to make Palhares look bad. Palhares tends to get hit a lot as he looks to move the fight to the ground and Pierce will be looking to exploit that. Pierce will have the edge on the feet, but this fight gets interesting if it hits the mat.

Palhares has tremendous leg locks and is like a bear trap. If he is able to grab your leg, it’s not a matter of if, but when, his opponent taps out. Pierce will need to keep his legs away from Palhares as Palhares is not afraid to drop down with a leg and turn it into a leg lock. He has explosive takedown ability and very good ground-and-pound, and he has an excellent guard and submission game. While Pierce is very good at control on the ground, he may look to overall avoid going to the mat where he could easily lose this fight. Palhares does take a lot of ground damage as well, and if Pierce can find a way to establish top control, he can finish the fight with heavy strikes. Pierce may use that to find a way to keep the fight on the feet and turn it into a brutal clinch battle on the feet, but he will do whatever it takes to get the win. It may get ugly at times, but if Palhares can’t find the submission, this is Pierce’s fight to lose.

Why It Matters- Palhares could be on the endangered species heading into this fight, and a loss could very well spell the end of his current UFC career. With that being said, he needs to score a win big time. It is a huge turning point in the career of Palhares with the move down in weight classes, and a win would give him new life in the UFC. Pierce may have won four straight, but a loss could hurt him. Any loss by anyone right now could spell the end of their time in the UFC, and as the recent cut of Yushin Okami shows, they won’t waste time in releasing fighters who can be perceived as boring. Pierce falls into that category. A win could move him into a fight with a top opponent. Who knows what a loss would bring him, so this is a big fight for him. Plus, he likes to bash Brazilian fighters, and he will be hated going into the Octagon come fight time.

Prediction- Pierce

Ryan Frederick has been a diehard mixed martial arts fan since he saw UFC 1 at the age of 7. Since then he has yet to miss a show. He also has loves for football, baseball and fine whiskey. He fell in love with covering MMA after having also covered baseball and football, both professional and college, while working towards a journalism degree at Texas Christian University. His work has been seen on FOXSports.com, InsideFights.com, WrestlingObserver.com, Bleacher Report and ToughTalkMMA.com.