A potential slugfest is set to go down at UFC Fight Night 29, a card headlined by Demian Maia and Jake Shields in Sao Paulo, Brazil. Hometown boy and light-heavyweight slugger Fabio Maldonado bumps heads with “The Mexicutioner” Joey Beltran in what has the potential to be either the fight of the night, or a sloppy swing-happy fight filled with miffed haymakers.
Fighter Summary
Joey Beltran (14-8 overall, 4-5 UFC)
Strengths: Scrappy, tough, solid all around
Weaknesses: Solid all around, but not great at anything
Fabio Maldonado (19-6 overall, 2-3 UFC)
Strengths: Brawler mentality, heart and toughness
Weaknesses: Maybe too much of a brawler mentality
Fight Breakdown –
If you had to pick one fight on the main card at UFC Fight Night 29 to be an absolute scrap with all technique thrown out the window, this would be it. In fact, it will probably be the exact opposite of main event Maia vs. Shields, where both guys are exceptional jiu-jitsu practitioners with improved striking.
Beltran is a brawler. He wins the majority of his fights by TKO or hard-fought decision. Problem is, since entering the UFC, he’s strung together two separate back to back losses and hasn’t won a UFC fight in over two years. He loses the same way he wins, in ugly decisions. He’s going to have to respect Maldonado’s power and toughness, and if he’s smart, he’ll pick his shots and stay active on the feet. The longer this goes on, the greater it will favor Beltran’s style. He would do well to keep his hands up with his head constantly on the move and it wouldn’t hurt to frequently change levels throughout the fight. He has the skill to pick Maldonado apart and make him swing and miss, and he should look to be patient and do just that. Getting into exchanges with Maldonado will probably favor the Brazilian, so expect Beltran to initiate clinches at opportune moments throughout the fight.
Beltran may have a slight advantage in the clinch game, but neither guy is a stranger to grappling against the fences and you can bet that they’re going to clinch in this fight more than once. Don’t be surprised to see both guys sneaking in bunches of punches, elbows, and knees in the clinch.
If Beltran is a brawler, than Maldonado is a brawler’s brawler. Anyone who saw his fight against Glover Teixeira will never question his chin, toughness or heart. It was hard not to root for the guy for the beating he took, he was like Rocky in Rocky IV when Drago treated him like “a piece of iron” for the first half of the fight. Expect to see Maldonado be the aggressor from the opening. He’s going to be cautious, but he’s going to go after Beltran, and try to put his hands on him. Maldonado is a warrior. Remember, he didn’t get finished by Teixeira, that fight was a doctor’s stoppage. So he isn’t afraid to lock them up or stay in the pocket and swing for the fences.
He just has to be careful to not just rush straight in without setting up some feints and strikes. Beltran is no amateur and he’ll make him pay for that type of strategy. For Maldonado, there’s also that added pressure of performing in front of his native countrymen and women. Maldonado has to be careful, not too high, not too low. He can’t let the rush of fighting in his backyard get him too pumped, he has to use that energy to fight a good fight. There’s going to be some pressure on him to impress, so it will be interesting to see how Maldonado responds.
Key to Victory: Who can land the hardest punch first?
Really, it comes down to who solidly connects with the other guy first. We’re likely going to see a lot of hands being thrown here, as neither guy is going to pull off a Vitor Belfort-type head kick (although anything is possible). It would be a great strategy to mix in some leg kicks (and refreshing to see), on the part of either guy. If Beltran catches Maldonado coming in, and really punishes his legs, it’ll make him hesitate just a little bit every time after. And on the other side, Maldonado could set up his strikes by further distracting Beltran if he lands some good leg kicks himself.
But in all likelihood, we’re looking at a punch-fest, and whoever can find his range and land something solid might very well end up dictating the fight. If Beltran catches Maldonado coming in often enough, you can bet Maldonado will throw that plan out of the window and look to make this thing ugly in a hurry. If Maldonado lands something huge, Beltran is going to be in a world of hurt and Maldonado will be eager to get a finish. Whoever finds the chin of the other guy first is going to have the jump on this one.
Why It Matters –
Beltran tested positive for a banned substance (Nandrolone) after his most recent “victory” over Igor Pokrajac. He hasn’t exactly wowed in his UFC career and his return to the UFC was a one-sided loss followed by that failed drug test. I can’t imagine that anything but a phenomenal performance (followed by a clean test) will keep Beltran on the roster. If Beltran comes out sloppy and looks terrible, don’t be surprised to see the UFC axeman coming for him. In this day and age, where it seems like more and more mediocre UFC fighters are finding jobs at Bellator and WSOF, there is a lot of pressure to perform, to win, and to fight exciting fights. Beltran may be capable of fighting, but consistently winning against top-shelf competition seems a little bit beyond him. He has to pull a rabbit out of a hat come fight night, and if he doesn’t, it’s not going to bode well for his UFC days.
Maldonado himself isn’t exactly skyrocketing to the top of the totem pole in the LHW division either. He’s coming off of a strong win, but he was on a three-fight skid prior to that and is now 2-3 in the UFC. Winning this fight will get him to .500. He’s got a hell of an exciting style and is certain to have plenty of fans in Brazil, but there are also plenty of guys who can get in there and just bang. The guys who can do that and consistently win on the other hand, now that’s a very short list. He’s got a fight here in his hometown against a guy he can definitely beat. Most fighters can’t ask for a situation better than that. With this kind of advantage, he has to show he can take advantage of it, and maybe there will be something a little more intriguing for him in the future. But first he has to deliver and show he can beat someone like Beltran in decisive fashion.
Prediction – Maldonado
