Last night wasn’t a really good card, let’s be honest. The main event was a worthy five rounder but you don’t need to relive it ala Jones/Gustafsson, et al. It was good for a Brazilian card on Fox Sports 1; if that’s not damning it with praise I don’t know what it is.
Now it’s time to play Joe Silva & Sean Shelby, figuring the most relevant matchups for the most intriguing winners & losers from Wednesday’s card.
Winners
Jake Shields vs. Rory MacDonald – This is provided Rory beats Robbie Lawler, of course, but if “Ares” notches the win he can take a title shot if he wants to. It’s just that GSP still has the belt and they’re friends/training partners. If GSP loses to Johny Hendricks it’ll be a whole different story but for sake of argument I’m holding on to GSP’s title retention and Rory winning. Rory doesn’t want a title shot and Shields/GSP 2 is borderline unsellable unless Shields goes on an epic finishing spree. Thus both guys are in the Top 10 but won’t be getting title shots for differing reasons. Instead of letting these two beat viable contenders why not aim them at each other? MacDonald’s striking against Shields’ grinding style would be fun over three rounds and make for a good feature fight on a big card.
Dong Hyun-Kim vs. the winner of Nate Marquardt/Hector Lombard – The Donger looked like he was going to get railroaded by Erick Silva at some point until he just mercked the Brazilian out of nowhere. It was reminiscent of Condit/Hardy in England, crazily enough, and Kim just put himself into a high profile fight because of it. Marquardt/Lombard is high profile but neither fighter is in the Top 10 right now as well. Kim won’t get a Top 10 fighter right now but I think he gets someone on the fringe, just like him.
Raphael Assuncao vs. Renan Barao – if Dominick Cruz can’t be ready soon then Assunaco deserves a title shot against Barao. And Barao should get the interim off his status, as well. Assuncao earned that title shot with a spirited win over T.J Dillashaw and, unlike the winner of Mayday McDonald/Faber, hasn’t faced Barao already. Newness trumps rematches in MMA.
Rousimar Palhares vs. Thiago Alves – Palhares didn’t let go of Pierce’s leg for a long time and should be properly suspended for it. It’s one thing to get the tap, it’s another to crank it and potentially ruin a guy’s limb forever. I think Palhares keeps his job, he’ll just get an off the books suspension from the UFC, and gets Alves. The winner of Ebersole/Story would be a fit here as well as the winner of Magny/Baczynski. Palhares won’t get anyone ranked but he’ll get someone of note, I think.
Thiago Silva vs. the winner of Anthony Perosh/Ryan Bader – Silva looked like his training for the fight was hampered by a crippling addiction to Cheerio’s. He came in with a broken hand, apparently, but he missed weight AND won against a fighter who shouldn’t be in there anymore. The Perosh/Bader winner will be in the same spot as Silva. This is, of course, dependant on Silva beating his biggest enemy to date: the drug test. He looked bad, came in two pounds over and beat a fighter who looked like his best days were well behind him. That’s not a recipe for anything good and a failed drug test won’t help his chances. Silva hasn’t looked like a killer as of late, not the one who Rashad Evans refused to stand with at least. Coming in sloppy doesn’t hurt his cause, either.
Losers
Matt Hamill vs. Rafael Cavalcante – Hamill looked shopworn and done as a fighter. It was a surprise when Damon Martin at Fox Sports wrote about how his long time coach refused to train him, not wanting to be part of Hamill getting seriously hurt, but wasn’t shocking when Hamill just looked god awful against Thiago Silva. I want Hamill to walk away, before he gets hurt, but I don’t think he will. And the UFC won’t force him out, either, like they did with other guys. My guess is he takes one more fight against a guy like Cavalcante before winding up doing the Jenz Pulver career plan on the regional scene for a while.
Demian Maia vs. the loser of Rory MacDonald/Robbie Lawler – Maia isn’t far from a title fight against GSP, even with the loss to Shields. A pair of submission wins and he’s right back in the mix; he’s still an elite talent, he just lost to another elite talent. No one looks good against Jake Shields much like they don’t look good against Mike Pierce; both guys are nullifiers. Maia is someone the UFC wants in a title fight again and the loser of MacDonald/Lawler will similarly be in the same spot Maia is in now. The loser of Condit/Brown could be here as well as the loser of Woodley/Koscheck as well. Maia’s such an interesting style matchup that he can get a lot of different fights in the division.
Erick Silva vs. Pascal Krauss – Silva is a profoundly flawed prospect, susceptible to elite grapplers, but he has so much talent it’s hard to think he won’t fight for a UFC title at some point. But a loss to Kim, especially the highlight reel KO, is going to push him way down the ladder. Krauss is in a similar spot and this would make for a wild brawl on the undercard of a PPV. Look for Silva to get someone who isn’t grappling based for his next couple of fights; he needs to be rebuilt and the UFC is going to let him take on big time strikers for a spell. The key thing right now is that he needs to work on his wrestling; I’d love to see him spend six months in Milwaukee with Ben Askren and Roufusport. In a division filled with wrestlers being a great striker with a glaring deficiency in takedown defense isn’t a good thing.
T.J Dillashaw vs. Eddie WIneland – Dillashaw lost a tough, tough decision that many scored for him. I’d say he justifies being a Top 10 talent in the division, as he took the #5 guy to the very limit, and Wineland just lost to the champ in devastating fashion. If Mayday McDonald loses to Urijah Faber on Fox that could be a matchup to make; Brad Pickett could be in the mix as well. Dillashaw upped his stock in defeat and will be getting a similarly tough fight in his next one.
Mike Pierce vs. Chris Clements – If a couple of decisions go his way Pierce is in the main event, not trying to break out of the Facebook prelims. A tapout loss doesn’t help his cause, either, and he could be fighting for his UFC career in his next fight. Clements is in the same spot, potentially being on the outs with a loss, and time for an undercard matchup to determine who’s fighting for MFC next.
