Where Does Tim Bradley Go From Here? On Floyd, Manny and More!

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In a perfect world, Tim Bradley would be in a perfect position. He is an undefeated American titleholder who fights in an incredibly deep weight division (welterweight) where the fighters are not only talented but also well-known. He has been featured on premium cable television multiple times: starting with his 2008 junior welterweight title winning effort against Junior Witter, he was featured on Showtime five times; Bradley then moved to HBO where he has been featured in three televised main events, a co-featured slot on the Manny Pacquiao-Juan Manuel Marquez III pay per view and two pay per view main events. During the build up to some of these fights, Bradley has been showcased on “countdown” type shows and two versions of HBO’s “24/7″ reality show. Bradley has wins against highly regarded fighters such as Miguel Vasquez, Kendall Holt, Lamont Peterson, Luis Carlos Abregu and Devon Alexander. If that is not enough, most boxers would kill for the results of his last three fights: decision victories over Pacquiao in a highly publicized fight, Ruslan Provodnikov in a wild fight of the year candidate and Marquez in a masterful boxing performance.

But this is not a perfect world and, while Bradley should be in a perfect position, he once again finds himself in an awkward spot. This is really nothing new to Bradley. Although he came to notoriety in the boxing community as a talented amateur and an undefeated prospect, he did not have an easy road to a title. In fact, he had to defeat the awkward now-lightweight titlist Vasquez and then be prepared to face Jose Luis Castillo in Mexico (a fight which never went forward because, surprise, Castillo did not make weight) before being forced to travel overseas to face the awkward Junior Witter in his hometown. Once he won that fight, Bradley had a title but less than scintillating performances against Witter, Holt (where he had to survive knockdowns in the first and last rounds to win a decision) and Nate Campbell (in a fight that was stopped early due to a headbutt induced cut) caused him to be labeled as a less-than exciting fighter. All of that came to a head when Bradley moved to HBO and was set up to face Alexander in a heavily-hyped showdown between undefeated junior welterweight titlists. Despite the enormous promotional push for the event by HBO, the lightness of television viewership for the bout was outweighed only by the amount of empty seats in the Superdome of Detroit, Michigan where the fight was mistakenly venued.

At that point, Bradley was saddled with quite a bit of negative publicity. Nevertheless, he was still undefeated and being pointed towards a big money showdown with fellow junior welterweight titleholder, Amir Khan, whom he called out through various media outlets. Bradley eschewed that opportunity in order to leave promoter Gary Shaw in favor of Bob Arum’s Top Rank. The media and fans labeled Bradley a “ducker” for this decision, one which Bradley said he made for the opportunity to land a bigger-money Pacquiao fight. That opportunity came in June 2012 and Bradley must have thought that this would be the end of taking small money fights and bad publicity. Especially when he was announced a split-decision winner over the Filipino Congressman.

No such luck. The decision was widely regarded as one of the worst decisions in boxing history. It was so bad that Bradley’s own promoter, Arum, publicly called for an investigation into the judges and said there was no doubt that Pacquiao won. Bradley once again faced negative publicity and, to make matters worse, he needed significant time off to recover from foot and ankle injuries. He used these injuries as a reason why he did not take an offered December rematch with Peterson but most boxing writers wrote that the real reason was that he was not happy with his purse. In short, Bradley began 2013 in a tough position.

Following his spectacular performances against Provodnikov and Marquez though, Bradley is now being showered in positive press. The fans are back on his side. Everyone wants to see him move on to more mega-fights and tremendous performances. But in typical Bradley fashion, that may not be possible.

The perfect fight for Bradley now is a showdown with the recognized welterweight champion, the pound for pound ruler and the pay per view king, Floyd Mayweather. The fight would net Bradley a career high pay day, would give him the opportunity to unify the WBC and WBO titles as well as become the recognized 147 pound champion and would no doubt be a massive cross-over success with over 1 million pay per view buys. In a perfect world, yes but not here. There is no chance this fight happens… none. ESPN’s Dan Rafael made this point crystal clear when he tweeted “Bradley is simply not going to get a Mayweather fight as long as he’s with Top Rank.” Mayweather has repeatedly stated that he refuses to business with Arum. Additionally, while not as explicit, Mayweather’s contractually obligated television network, Showtime, also refuses to do business with Arum. Further, there is no way Arum will let Bradley walk and even if he did, HBO would be furious and likely take retribution on Arum and Bradley’s manager, Cameron Dunkin, both of whom need the network just as much as it needs them. Finally, it appears that Mayweather is moving towards an agreement to face Khan (who, in a perfect world, would also be a potential foe for Bradley) in May, 2014 so there is no chance of Bradley getting this fight.

Similarly, promotional conflicts will prevent Bradley from meeting many of the other top 147 pound fighters. This fall, the pecking order of the division behind Mayweather and Bradley will largely be established by fights such as IBF titlist Alexander against undefeated prospect Shawn Porter (scheduled for November 30 in San Antoinio); the “Battle of Brooklyn” between Paulie Malignaggi and Zab Judah (scheduled for December 7 at the Barclays Center in New York); WBA titlist Adrien Broner defending against Marcos Maidana; and “interim” WBA titlist Keith Thurman facing Jose Soto-Karass (both scheduled for December 14, 2014 in Las Vegas). The winners of these fights would make excellent foes for Bradley, would be commercially viable (especially Broner) and would also provide the opportunity to unify welterweight titles. However, all of those fighters are with Golden Boy Promotions which does not do business with Top Rank and HBO. Thus, none of these fighters and other Golden Boy boxers including Khan, Saul “Canelo” Alvarez, Danny Garcia, Lucas Matthysse, Andre Berto and Robert Guerrero, are realistic options for Bradley.

To be a realistic option for Bradley next, a fighter must be able to fight on HBO. The list then gets narrowed down to Pacquiao, Marquez, Brandon Rios, Mike Alvarado, Provodnikov, Miguel Cotto and the winner of the WBO junior middleweight title fight between Vanes Martirosyan and Demetrius Andrade. Right off the bat though, there is an issue with Bradley fighting Cotto or the Martirosyan-Andrade winner… those fights would have to occur at 154 pounds. Although Bradley competed as an amateur at 152 pounds (where he lost a bout to Martirosyan), he is a small welterweight without great punching power who some boxing writers (including Doug Fischer of Ring Magazine) speculate could still make 140 pounds. It is reasonable to assume that he would only go to 154 pounds for a mega money fight. That would limit junior middleweight possibilities to Cotto who is in an even better position than Bradley. He is a free agent who can go fight for Golden Boy/Showtime or Top Rank/HBO. Given Mayweather’s limited possibilities for a May fight, there is a good possibility that Cotto goes back to Golden Boy for that big-money rematch or agrees to face Alvarez for another big money pay per view. If Cotto decides to stay with Top Rank and HBO, the writing on the wall is that he will move up to 160 pounds to face Sergio Martinez for the middleweight championship of the world. As such, Cotto is not a reasonable possibility to face Bradley.

The next fights that would interest Bradley would be big-money pay per view remtatches with either Pacquiao or Marquez. Pacquiao, of course, would have to beat Rios in their November 23, 2014 showdown in Macau, China. That is not a certainty. Additionally, Arum told Yahoo’s Kevin Iole after Bradley-Marquez that he was not optimisic that he could make Bradley-Pacquiao II (most likely because it would not be lucrative enough for Pacquiao – the first fight was not that exciting and the public generally believes that Pacquiao dominated Bradley). Finally, even though Marquez lost, we could be heading for Pacquiao-Marquez 5 which would still sell more and make the fighters more money than a bout with Bradley would. To make matters worse, Marquez has hinted at retirement in the wake of his frustration with boxing judges, particularly in Nevada. Neither guy is likely Bradley’s next foe but they are certainly in the realm of possibility.

Arum did mention that if Rios defeats Pacquiao, he would make Bradley-Rios. Money talks and it could certainly happen but this fight has a big obstacle as well… Bradley and Rios share Duncan as a manager. Duncan is probably one of the top three managers in boxing along with Al Haymon and Frank Espinoza. In years past, a manager would never have one of his fighters face another. Recently, Haymon has been doing it and Espinoza had Abner Mares and Daniel Ponce de Leon face each other. This may be Duncan’s turn. It is certainly a possibility.

The most likely scenario is that Bradley faces the winner of Alvarado-Provodnikov. That fight should be a spectacular slugfest and the winner will be a junior welterweight titleholder who will be crowned an all-action blood and guts warrior. It would be a sellable fight but most likely not a pay per view. If not, Bradley may not want to go to battle with Provodnikov again or with the guy who beat Provodnikov for that kind of event. Regardless, the winner of this fight, scheduled for this Saturday night on HBO, is the most likely man to face Bradley next.

Please feel free to email Mike at mpg4321@aol.com and follow him on Twitter at @mikeyg4321.