A tilt in the heavyweight division keeps the main card rolling for UFC 166. Rising contender Shawn Jordan meets longtime UFC veteran Gabriel Gonzaga in a matchup featuring two fighters who finished their last opponents in quick, first round knockouts. Both of these guys will be looking to ride their momentum to keep climbing up the heavyweight ladder.
Fighter Summary –
Gabriel Gonzaga (15-7 overall, 10-6 UFC)
Strengths: Submissions, ground game, improving striking
Weaknesses: Susceptibility to KOs
Shawn Jordan (15-4 overall, 3-1 UFC)
Strengths: Power and athleticism, KO power
Weaknesses: Still a little rough and relatively new to fighting
Fight Breakdown – Both of these guys are coming off of quick, first round knock out finishes of their opponents, so they’re going to try and do the same thing at 166 right? Wrong. Unless one of them makes a costly mistake or drastically overestimates his own skill, a large portion of the first round is going be a cautious, feeling-out process.
Shawn Jordan is one of the more athletic fighters in the heavyweight division, but athleticism doesn’t mean a whole lot if you can’t apply it to fighting. GSP is a great example of someone who applies his elite athleticism to the different facets of fighting. Phil Davis on the other hand, is very athletic, but hasn’t quite maximized the value of his athleticism inside the octagon. Jordan is closer to Phil Davis than GSP. Jordan has the talent and skill to dictate this fight, but he may not know that or look it when he stands opposite Gonzaga. Gonzaga has a ton of experience under his belt and outside of his loss to Travis Browne, who is rapidly becoming a title contender, he has been fighting very well in the past year or so.
What Jordan has to do is come out aggressive and looking to go on the offensive, just enough to keep Gonzaga from getting comfortable. But he has to do it in a way that doesn’t get himself in trouble, especially if he takes it down to the ground. Jordan can’t be afraid of taking Gonzaga down if it comes to that. Gonzaga is a dangerous submission artist, so Jordan will have to be near perfect in his ground defense, especially if Gonzaga gains an advantageous position, which will probably happen at least once or twice in the course of the fight.
For Jordan, he has to mix things up and keep Gonzaga confused. Becoming one-dimensional against a crafty guy like Gonzaga won’t be enough to impress anyone, if it’s even enough to win the fight. Unless Jordan comes out with an unstoppable jab that keeps Gonzaga on the defensive, he’s got to vary his attacks and mix up strikes with clinches, takedowns and slams. Just when Gonzaga thinks they’re going to exchange some strikes, that would be the moment to shoot for a takedown or clinch. Just when they’ve been clinching against the cage for a while, that’s when Jordan should break with a punch, knee or kick.
While Jordan may have the advantage in terms of athleticism and youth, Gonzaga is going to come in bigger and heavier. You can’t teach size, but you can teach BJJ and Gonzaga is going to have the advantage in both. If he can take a page out of Kongo’s book and nullify Jordan’s greatest strengths, he could dominate in this fight by taking Jordan down and keeping him there, threatening with submissions until there are opportunities to ground and pound, which will lead to more submission openings. Gonzaga is no slouch when it comes to striking, but a pure striking battle may end up favoring Jordan, who is younger and has the ability to push the pace. Gonzaga may try his hand anyway, but it’s a comfort to know that if he can’t keep up on the feet, there’s always a plan B that could very well win him the fight.
Key to Victory: Can Jordan keep his composure?
Shawn Jordan is the favorite here. He’s got the talent, skill and athleticism to beat Gonzaga and beat him handily. But Gonzaga, aside from maybe Cheick Kongo, might be the craftiest guy Jordan has ever faced. He’s not going to come running in with his hands down and chin up. Jordan is going to be tested in pretty much every area a fight can go, in the stand-up, against the cage (much like his Kongo fight) and on the ground. He’s going to have to pass in all areas to win this fight.
Gonzaga is exactly the kind of fighter who can take advantage of someone slipping up. He’s going to put pressure on Jordan in one way or another, and Jordan has to be careful to keep his calm and remain patient. If he maintains his composure and fights to the best of his abilities, he’s probably going to win.
These two guys may have a similar number of total fights, but a good majority of Jordan’s fights have ended with him winning by KO in the first round, while Gonzaga has been knocked out more times than Jordan has lost. Gonzaga has a lot more mileage on him and Jordan should look to exploit that and keep this fight going to the later rounds. The longer it goes at a good pace, the better his chances of winning.
Why It Matters – This is a chance for one of these guys to make a case for a spot in the top ten. Jordan had all of the potential in the world before that ugly clinch fest against Cheick Kongo. Kongo dominated him against the cage and brought all of that momentum to a screeching halt. Since then Jordan has back to back TKO victories, so his hype train is running full speed again, but he’s got to be able to beat a veteran like Gonzaga, who will present a very difficult test for Jordan to pass. If he can get past him, he’d make a strong case to fight someone in that top ten range. Beating him in impressive fashion such as a KO finish, which would give him three in a row, would make the case even stronger. He’s got back to back wins, and a W over a mainstay like Gonzaga would give him a three fight win streak in the heavyweight division. There are few enough guys in the top ten with that kind of streak going on, let alone anyone outside of the top ten.
Gonzaga is heading towards the twilight of his career and at 34, he might not have it in him to beat someone like Jordan and keep on winning. Then again, he is 3-1 in his return to the UFC, losing only to thunderous contender Travis Browne. All of his wins were stoppages as well, so Gonzaga hasn’t exactly lost his edge. But if he’s going to make a serious move, it starts with beating Shawn Jordan, another younger heavyweight on the rise. Beating Ben Rothwell and Dave Herman is all well and good, but it would mean a lot more to take down someone like Jordan. A win over Jordan would also put Gonzaga in a place to possibly challenge someone in that top ten range.
Either one of these guys could crack that barrier, but it starts with winning at 166. All things considered, it’s probably going to be Jordan’s hand raised at the end of this one.
Prediction – Jordan
