The biggest prize in the UFC is up for grabs tonight as Cain Velasquez seeks to tie Tim Sylvia, Randy Couture and Brock Lesnar for most title defenses in UFC history. Standing in his way is Junior Dos Santos, who defeated him in front of the largest television audiences for an MMA fight ever. All this and a truckload of awesome fights for one of the year’s best cards.
And as always the Inside Fights Staff is here to predict the main card. Joining me are: Daniel Sohn, Ryan Frederick, Adam Keyes, Luke Cho-Yee
UFC Heavyweight Title:
Cain Velasquez vs. Junior Dos Santos
SOHN: If both guys are healthy, focused and at their best, I think Velasquez is just the better fighter. If Cain can avoid the big shots from Dos Santos, which I think he’s smart and capable enough to do, he’s going to win. Velasquez
Sawitz: Years from now we’re going to look at this rivalry as a better version of Fedor/Big Nog in Pride. This is the first true heavyweight rivalry in the UFC. Arlovski/Sylvia was a nice rivalry but no one bought for a second they were the best heavyweights in the world at that time. Very good ones, obviously … but they were not elite heavyweight fighters. There isn’t a huge chasm in ability between Cain and JDS right now, we think. It’s just the leap from underneath them to #3 is fairly substantial. The key to this fight will be the chess board reaction from the second. The first fight Cain waded in and got caught. The second fight he poured on his wrestling early instead of trying to stand and trade. Junior’s tendency to move backwards killed him as Cain didn’t let him set up for a big shot. How Junior reacts to Cain’s unrelenting forward pressure and takedowns will be the key. People will point to JDS bringing in Khetag Pliev to help shore up his TDD but let’s be honest; if you want to get better at TDD you have to do it well before you face guys who can take you down at will like Cain. The level of improvement is only so much and we might be pushing that angle too hard. I like JDS’s hands but I think he has to land something early to win. If not I see Cain taking another decisive win off JDS. Velasquez
Frederick: Dos Santos certainly has the ability to finish this fight with the first punch like he did the first time they fought, but I think this fight is gonna look more like their second fight. They are the two best heavyweights in the world, and while a third fight usually signals the end of a rivalry, I think we are going to see them fight at least once more in the future, possibly two years from now if both keep on winning. Overall, I still believe Velasquez is the better fighter of the two by a safe margin, and I see him successfully defending his title on Saturday night. Velasquez
Keyes: As this is the third fight between the two best heavyweights on the planet and in each of the previous encounters saw each man emerge victorious via his known method of victory, we now know that if either man is successful in enacting their preferred gameplan what the result will be. I can’t quite see Dos Santos stopping Cain again, although it is not unreasonable to think someone with his skill and power could stop any fight with any man at any time, so put me down for a five-round dominating display turned in by Velasquez. While I do not think it will be as severe as the beatdown that Velasquez doled out last time around, I still believe it will be pretty conclusive. Velasquez
CY: Velasquez proved his dominance in the sequel but just like in their first fight we did not see the best of both men. I do not expect such a lopsided affair in the third and can see a very close battle going right down to the wire. I foresee a much sharper JDS who will strategize and use angles more efficiently but whether he can resist the indomitable pressure of the champion for five rounds and land his combos consistently, will determine if the belt changes hands. Dos Santos
Daniel Cormier vs. Roy Nelson
SOHN: Cormier is the more athletic and versatile fighter on the feet, which is where this fight is going to start and stay at. Nelson always has that puncher’s chance with those thunderous hands, but Cormier is too skilled to fall into that trap.
Cormier
Sawitz: It’s kind of sad that one of the big angles coming into this fight is that Roy Nelson isn’t nearly as big of a fat slob as he has been in the past. I love Roy, don’t get me wrong, but for all the hilarity of a huge belly, a mullah beard and a mullet provided over the years it didn’t inspire much love from sponsors. For all the complaints Nelson made about not making a lot of money … it was easy to point out that he didn’t exactly open himself up for it. That being said I could see Nelson knocking Cormier out. It’s the power of that one tool he has; he can land one big shot and Cormier can go out. He won’t, though, as Cormier gets the same treatment Frank Mir did. Cormier
Frederick: Nelson looks like a whole new Roy Nelson since signing his new UFC contract having dropped a good deal of weight. Cormier has dropped weight too as he prepares to move down to 205 pounds following this fight. Nelson has a lot of power still and Cormier has never been cleanly hit, so it’s hard to say if his chin will hold up. Nelson’s chin is among the best in the sport, and he has a fantastic beard. They will hit each other hard, but Cormier’s wrestling will be the difference. He gets the win. Cormier
Keyes: Cormier takes this. Nelson will always be a threat with the power that he possesses in those meaty fists of his, but I can’t see him having the chance to connect. Cormier will prove savvy enough to stay away from Nelson’s power, be too good of a wrestler to fall prey to a Nelson trip takedown and if he ever is in any kind of trouble on the feet, barring lack of consciousness, Cormier will have no trouble taking this fight where he feels it needs to be. Cormier
CY: Nelson may be a figure of fun but when it comes to fighting he is no joke. He has the skills to make a very dangerous fight for Cormier who cannot afford take the newly svelte Nelson lightly. However, I feel Cormier will be extremely focused and intent on making a statement as he looks towards a shot at Jon Jones and the light heavyweight title and expect him to be too much for Nelson, particularly the clinch and grappling exchanges. Cormier
Gilbert Melendez vs. Diego Sanchez
SOHN: This one is going to be fun and action packed, but Melendez is clearly on another level. He gave Benson Henderson all he could handle and that “uncrowned champ” talk isn’t a stretch by any means. Melendez takes this one on the way back to another title shot. Melendez
Sawitz: There’s nothing that Diego does that Gil doesn’t do better. It’ll be a great scrap, perhaps, but the Cesar Gracie product is the best lightweight in the world not named Anthony Pettis. Sanchez is a nice test but not in Gil’s league right now, I think. I could be wrong but I don’t see one thing Diego does that Melendez doesn’t do better than him. Melendez
Frederick: Outside of the main event, this is my personal most anticipated fight on this card. It has the makings of a potential classic and should be the odds-on favorite for “Fight of the Night”. These two have trained together in the past and have a good deal of respect for each other, but Melendez is the man to beat in this fight. He has an outstanding gas tank and excellent technical skills. Sanchez is in good shape but he still tends to fade late after pushing a relentless pace the first half of a fight. Sanchez will start strong and Melendez will finish strong to win. Melendez
Keyes: I cannot wait for this fight. Both men like to press the action, Sanchez is famed for being involved in frantic brawls and Melendez is hardly adverse to them either. Ultimately Melendez will prove himself to be the better man, as he has the superior skill-set to Sanchez but I do not see this being a walkover as Sanchez is durable as they come. Melendez
CY: Fight of the night anyone? Sanchez is such a tough, salty hombre who you can never dismiss but he may have met his match and then some, in Gil Melendez. The scrap pack standout is coming off such a close fight with the then Champ Benson Henderson and with his UFC debut now out of the way I can only see “El Nino” storming forward and delivering a master class performance that will reassert him among the top contenders. Melendez
Gabriel Gonzaga vs. Shawn Jordan
SOHN: Jordan is on another wave and this time he won’t falter like he did against Cheick Kongo. Gonzaga is a tough, crafty veteran who could easily win the fight, but it’s time for Jordan to make some moves in the heavyweight division.
Jordan
Sawitz: This is the truest test for Jordan right now. Gonzaga is good at beating guys who’ll never be contenders for a title. He gets lamped by guys who could, though. If Jordan wrecks him he’ll be on route to a title shot sooner than later most likely. If not, look for him to be one step above Pat Barry. Jordan
Frederick: I’m actually surprised that Jordan is the betting favorite going into this fight but he has been impressive in his most recent bouts. Gonzaga is coming off a quick destruction of Dave Herman and is quickly getting his footing re-established in the heavyweight division. He will need to beat Jordan if he is ever going to climb that ladder again. Jordan is a solid fighter but Gonzaga is excellent with his submissions and he will get another one in this fight. Gonzaga
Keyes: Shawn Jordan really impressed me last time out in KO’ing Pat Barry back at UFC 161, as I did not bargain for Jordan being as quick and devastating a striker as he proved to be against a seasoned kick boxer like Pat Barry. In Gonzaga, Jordan will face a different set of problems if the big Brazilian can get Jordan to the mat and engage his stellar jiu-jitsu. Sadly for Gonzaga, I cannot see this happening. Jordan finishes this fight and early. Jordan
CY: This should be a fun fight. The fact Gonzaga is still making appearances on the main card of such a big event is testament to his skill and durability but I wonder if he is pushing his shelf life towards an inevitable conclusion despite his impressive run of results. Jordan announced himself as a rising star, with his destruction of Pat Barry and I can see the former running back continuing to blaze forward using a forward pressure, high volume approach that has troubled Gonzaga in the past. Jordan
John Dodson vs. Darrell Montague
SOHN: Montague is obviously a talented fighter, but now he gets to make his UFC debut against former title challenger John Dodson. That’s a hell of a way to make your debut. Montague deserves to be in the UFC, but he probably won’t be at Dodson’s level come fight night. Dodson
Sawitz: If John Dodson the killer, the one that took Demetrious Johnson into deep waters, shows up Montague is going to get blown out of the water. If erratic Dodson shows up then this could be very interesting in all the wrong ways. Montague is a great fighter and a Top 10 flyweight but Dodson has proven his eliteness. Montague is also making his debut in the UFC and that never bodes well for top guys, it seems. Dodson
Frederick: I’m a little surprised that it took this long for the UFC to sign Montague but happy he gets the pay-per-view slot in his debut as this is a very underrated fight on this card. It has the potential to be very exciting. Dodson is looking to bounce back from his title loss to Demetrious Johnson. Montague has the chance to quickly earn himself a title shot and a win over Dodson will do just that. This will be fun and is a real toss-up in my eyes. I’m going with Dodson. Dodson
Keyes: This is a tough debut in the UFC for Montague. John Dodson is right up there in a division that has very few credible challengers left after Demetrious Johnson has virtually cleaned house with merciless efficiency. Montague has some serious pedigree from his days as Tachi Palace Fights flyweight champ and would be making a big statement with a win over Dodson; however I’m not quite sold. Dodson is a supreme athlete with legit power for a 125lbs’er and, in my opinion, will prove too stiff a test for Montague heading in to the big leagues. Dodson
CY: Montague is an excellent addition to the weight class having fought the best 125lbs has to offer outside the UFC yet I wonder if making your octagon debut against the quicksilver John Dodson is asking just a little too much of him. Even in defeat to the imperious Demetrious Johnson, Dodson looked like a future champ and I feel his stand up skills and wrestling pedigree will enable him to dictate the ebb and flow of this contest. Dodson
