UFC Fight Night 30 Preview: Alessio Sakara vs. Nicholas Musoke

Previews

Alessio Sakara (15-10 (1), 6-7 (1) UFC) vs. Nicholas Musoke (10-2-1 (1), 0-0 UFC)

Sakara and Musoke meet in a middleweight bout featured on the night’s main card as the veteran welcomes a newcomer to the Octagon. Sakara is looking to snap a three-fight losing streak and score his first win in the UFC since March 2010. He is coming off a disqualification loss to Patrick Cote at UFC 154 in November 2012. He is 3-3 over his last six fights. Musoke makes his UFC debut as an injury replacement and is looking to extend his six-fight unbeaten streak. He is coming into this bout off a decision win in June.

Fight Breakdown- Sakara has been around the UFC for a long time as he made his Octagon debut at UFC 53 way back in October 2005. His first fight had a strange ending as it went to a no contest after Sakara was hit with a groin strike. Since then, it hasn’t been the easiest road for Sakara, who has battled through numerous injury issues and finds himself with a record under .500 in the UFC. He has a chance to even his wins and losses against Musoke while at the same time ending a three-fight losing skid, the longest losing streak of his career. His losses have come to top fighters though. He lost to Chris Weidman, the current middleweight champion; Brian Stann, who was ranked inside the top ten at the time of his retirement; and to Patrick Cote, who has fought for a title in the UFC. His last fight against Cote looked like he was going to get back into the win column as he hurt Cote standing with punches and elbows. However, as Cote went for a takedown, Sakara hit him with several illegal hammerfists and Cote was unable to continue. Sakara was disqualified, and they never got a chance to rematch as Sakara was out of action due to kidney issues and Cote moved down a weight class.

Musoke is the third different opponent who has been scheduled to meet Sakara on this fight card. Sakara was originally slated to fight Tom Watson before Watson was forced out due to an injury. Magnus Cedenblad then stepped in for Watson, but he too was forced out of the fight due to an injury. Musoke is a teammate of Cedenblad, so the UFC didn’t have to look far to find a replacement as he was helping Cedenblad prepare for the fight. Musoke normally fights as a welterweight, but with the need of a short notice replacement, he moves up a weight class to make his UFC debut on two weeks’ notice. When he fights in the Octagon again, it will be at his natural weight class, but he would love to move back to 170 pounds with a win under his belt. Musoke has just one loss over his last eight bouts, and eight of his ten wins have come by knockout or submission.

On paper this seems to be a big mismatch as Sakara has a lot of UFC experience against some of the best fighters in the world while Musoke is a newcomer debuting with not a lot of time to prepare, and in a weight class above his usual competition, so the deck is stacked against Musoke. However, the last time Sakara fought a fighter on short notice, it was his fight against Weidman. Now, Weidman is the champion at 185 pounds and Musoke may never get past the preliminary level, but it showed that Sakara can have trouble when he doesn’t have a full training camp to prepare for a particular opponent. That should force him to utilize his best skillset and that is his striking. Sakara has professional boxing experience and fast hands coupled with vicious power. He will also likely be the bigger man inside the Octagon, though weight cuts have haunted Sakara in the past. Hopefully he is past the days of getting sick on fight day to where the fight is cancelled, and past the kidney issues that kept him out of action earlier this year.

Musoke should probably look to take this fight to the ground even though Sakara has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Sakara has never really displayed his ground skills in the UFC, and in fact, he hasn’t scored a submission win since 2002. Musoke may get the better of a ground fight and Sakara will wanna make this a fight on the feet. Sakara has good timing and counters well with solid combinations, and his quick hands and power may be too much for Musoke to handle. Sakara should also look to outmuscle Musoke, especially against the cage, and clinch work with knees from Sakara will make a difference in the fight. Surprisingly, Sakara is only a two-to-one favorite, which may stem from the fact he has lost three straight fights. Sakara does have a suspect chin, and if Musoke hits him clean, it could be lights out for Sakara. However, Sakara’s boxing prowess and ability to transition from the head to the body with his punches will make a difference as he makes quick work of the UFC newcomer.

Why It Matters- Sakara definitely wants to end his three-fight losing streak as a fourth straight loss will likely see him be released from the UFC. Losing to someone making their UFC debut on two weeks’ notice isn’t a good sign either. Musoke knows he will get another opportunity in the UFC regardless of whether he wins or loses, but a win over a UFC veteran would bolster his confidence and insure him of more than just one more fight in the UFC. It is a big fight for both men with no title implications, so they can go out and swing and try to earn themselves a little bit of extra cash on Saturday night.

Prediction- Sakara

Ryan Frederick has been a diehard mixed martial arts fan since he saw UFC 1 at the age of 7. Since then he has yet to miss a show. He also has loves for football, baseball and fine whiskey. He fell in love with covering MMA after having also covered baseball and football, both professional and college, while working towards a journalism degree at Texas Christian University. His work has been seen on FOXSports.com, InsideFights.com, WrestlingObserver.com, Bleacher Report and ToughTalkMMA.com.