Melvin Guillard has been looked at as a potential champion for so long that it never really came. Ross Pearson won a season of “The Ultimate Fighter” and hasn’t found himself in the elite category the UFC thought he’d be in. For one of these two a win means getting closer to what the UFC feels they could be. A loss and a ceiling might be reached.
Fight Breakdown: The first thing that stands out about Melvin Guillard (and the massive, massive advantage he has over Pearson) has always been his pure, explosive athletic ability. Guillard is a freak athlete with power in his hands capable of lamping anyone in the division. Melvin’s ability to land the vaunted “one shot knockout” is what keeps him in fights far longer than anyone thinks he will. With a tremendous wrestling for MMA skillset to match Guillard should be a Top 5 fighter in the division. He should’ve been so for a number of years, actually, but there’s always been something preventing him from turning the corner.
Unfortunately he’s been unable to really put it together all at once, falling right when he should be putting the finishing touches on a run to a UFC title shot. From taking Joe Lauzon lightly to getting into a grappling scramble with Jim Miller, Guillard falters right when he hits the moment where he should be announcing his title shot candidacy to the world. It’s why he’s such a maddening fighter; he sinks when you think he’ll fly and then he’ll fly when you think he’s sinking.
A lot of this fight will fall on which Melvin Guillard actually shows up. The cocky, has it in the bag Guillard is going to try and stand with Pearson, who has sizeable power in his hands. That Guillard will eventually stop being mindful of his technique and just start throwing haymakers, abandoning his defense for one big kill shot. Pearson has savvy enough boxing to lure him into this brawl and counter at just the right time; it’s what he did to George Sotiropoulos and something he could easily do to Guillard. Guillard was finished by Joe Lauzon when he came out this way, eating a couple of big strikes before getting choked out.
Pearson is a Brit who loves the stand up game. He’s competent enough not to get tapped by someone like Guillard on the ground but he has a distinct and profound disadvantage in the wrestling department to Guillard. He works his best with a sprawl and brawl, anyways, so that’s what his game plan should revolve around. He is giving up considerable size to Guillard, a large lightweight who fought for some time at welterweight. Pearson would be ideal at 150 or so; 155 he’s a little too small and he cuts way too much to be elite at 145.
He makes up for his lack of size with movement and speed; it’s the one distinct advantage Guillard has over him. Guillard is a monster for the division, probably one of the biggest 155ers out there, and he can wear the Brit down on top or against the cage. Guillard is a good enough wrestler and boxer to grind out a win this way; it wouldn’t be surprising if this is part of the game plan early on.
Guillard the stone cold killer, the one who torched Evan Dunham and Mac Danzig (among others), is the one Pearson will want to have stayed in America. If that version of Melvin shows up then this could be a short night for Pearson. When Guillard is on top of his game someone’s getting their lights turned off and it isn’t Melvin. That’s the Melvin that Pearson won’t have an answer for, the one who comes out calmly and coldly. When Guillard puts it together he’s a Top three lightweight and outclasses guys who normally don’t get outclassed.
Why it matters: It’s now or never for Guillard. He’s always been the guy who we wait to make that final leap from pretender to legitimate contender; every time he gets to that point he gets lit up like a Christmas tree. A big win over Pearson, especially a dynamite finish, gets him back into the waiting circle of the Top 10. If there ever was a time for him to become elite it’s now; this might be the last time in his career to make a serious run at a title shot.
For Pearson it’s a bit tricker; his ceiling is starting to come into view as a lightweight Michael Bisping. He probably can peak as a gatekeeper to the elite, and a hometown draw, but I’m not sure if he ever becomes good enough to get a title shot. It doesn’t mean he won’t get close, ala Bisping, but right now it looks like he’ll have a respectable career with some longevity in the UFC but nothing more. A win here, especially a dominant one, changes that perception.
Prediction: Guillard
