The Fight Horizon
In today’s Mixed Martial Arts, new fights are announced so often it’s difficult to keep track of all of them, let alone understand how they came about and what the implications are. So twice a week here at The Fight Horizon on Inside Fights, writer Daniel Sohn takes a quick, but in-depth look at newly announced match-ups to mark on your calendar.
The Matchup:
Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (21-5 overall, 4-2 in the UFC)
Strengths: Underrated striking, BJJ, experience
Weaknesses: Age, sheer wear and tear
Alexander Gustafsson (15-2 overall, 7-2 in the UFC)
Strengths: Size and length, good hands, KO ability
Weaknesses: Five round conditioning
The Date: March 8, 2013
Weight Class: LHW
What led to it: Little Nog is coming off of a unanimous (and very lackluster) decision victory over Rashad Evans, so he does deserve someone in the higher echelon of the LHW division. That fight was in February, and Nogueira suffered yet another injury while training for Shogun Rua, so Little Nog won’t have fought for over a year when he eventually meets Gustafsson. Everyone wants to see Gustafsson rematch Jon Jones, but that fight can be made later if Jones can defend against Glover Teixeira. So Gustafsson needs another fight and here we are.
Why it matters: Needless to say, Gustafsson will get the winner of Teixeira vs. Jones, as long as he wins this fight. Daniel Cormier is in contender status as well, but there is no guarantee DC can first of all, make the cut to LHW successfully, and then secondly, fight competitively at the weight. He may need to take a fight or two to show he can hang with the elite of the division, let alone deserve a shot at the champion.
So Gustafsson is essentially secure in his spot, but he needs to fight well against Little Nog, who is by no means a pushover. Nogueira is very capable of winning this fight. It’s exactly the kind of fight that makes him so dangerous because everybody will be overlooking him after what Gustafsson did to Jon Jones. Gustafsson’s performance was the stuff of legends, he became the only guy to push Jones and break his aura of superhuman invincibility, and then have a very real chance of winning the fight. A rematch was just automatic.
But Gustafsson and his camp have to make sure he is 100% focused on Nogueira. He can, and really should beat Little Nog, as long as he prepares and trains as he usually does. Looking ahead to either the inevitable rematch with Jon Jones or a shot at Glover Teixeira should he win, would be a dangerous mistake.
Now, while Little Nog has a chance to upset The Mauler, also consider that Nogueira is 37 years old and Gustafsson is only 26. Those eleven years will make a world of difference in terms of training and the actual fight. If their match is the main event that everyone expects it to be, we’re talking about a potential 25 minutes in the cage. That probably wouldn’t bode as well for Nogueira as it would for Gustafsson. Little Nog has also had a history of injuries, the very reason he’s been on the shelf for so long after his victory over Evans. March is still a ways away, so there’s no guarantee Nogueira even makes it to that fight, but even with a full training camp and at his best, he’s still got a lot more mileage than Gus and will be at a height and reach disadvantage.
So Nogueira is going to be the underdog, and he could make an MMA-world shaking statement with an upset victory over the Mauler. Just staying competitive against Gustafsson would be an impressive feat in itself, but beating him at this stage of his career would make his stock skyrocket through the roof. It would truly be shocking.
On the flip side, Gustafsson needs to win this one to get back into a title fight. Whether it’s Teixeira or Jones, the Mauler has proved he belongs in the cage with a champion and that’s exactly what he should get with a win here.
