We’ve heard this story before. A great college wrestler is going to be facing off with the best MMA wrestler in the game not named Chael Sonnen, this time with big power in his hands and a submission game that could catch the champion. Jon Fitch, Josh Koscheck and Jake Shields have all been hyped as the man who could nullify GSP’s game with solid amateur wrestling bonafides and something else.
Fitch was going to win because he could walk through GSP’s formidable stand-up and take him down. The same will that let him go from walk on at Purdue to captain of the wrestling team would allow him to grind out the champion. GSP would up brutalizing the one-time challenger for 25 minutes, nearly finishing him twice.
Koscheck had big power in either hand and was an elite level NCAA wrestler, including an undefeated season culminating in a national championship. GSP spent 25 minutes showing the world how effective a simple jab could be repeatedly, breaking Koscheck’s orbital in the process.
The former Strikeforce champion Shields was supposed to use his highly technical wrestling skills to take down GSP and use his elite level submission skills to catch him. GSP weathered an early eyepoke and won a fairly perfunctory decision.
Now here comes Johny “Big Rig” Hendricks, the next great wrestling hype with a god-killer of a left. Can he turn the lights off on GSP’s second title reign? Or will the champ do it one more time?
Fight breakdown – Whatever you happen to be not nearly as good at in the world of MMA Georges St. Pierre makes you pay for it. He made Nick Diaz pay for poor wrestling and over aggressiveness by repeatedly taking him down and shellacking him with strikes. Josh Koscheck’s power boxing game was exposed by GSP’s technical game in that area. BJ Penn’s lack of significant cardio was exposed by GSP’s relentless pace. To get to the top of the welterweight division is extremely tough and to do so requires excellence in nearly every aspect of the game.
But no contender has ever been as profoundly well-rounded as the long time champion is.
That’s where GSP wins his fights; by tuning into that one aspect where you’re weak and exploiting it. The key will be what aspect of Hendricks’ game he goes after on Saturday night. GSP’s game plan never is duplicated and he never fights the same type of fight twice in a row. He’s known for being dull, and grinding out wins with top position, but the one thing GSP does is win. He’s the ultimate competitor in MMA: he does what he needs to do to win dominantly … and nothing more. Winning is enough and there are two things he needs to be worried about Saturday Night.
When it comes to amateur wrestling credentials at 170 there are few that have better resumes than Hendricks. The Oklahoma native has a tremendous ability to take people down in a variety of ways, solid submission defense and a very effective top game. Elite wrestlers can hold him off but Hendricks can get nearly everyone else down with ease.
GSP’s game plan, in any sane world, would be to duplicate what he did to Josh Koscheck. Throw the jab, use movement and out-point him are all things that should get him the win. GSP has shown the ability to take down elite wrestlers in the past and Hendricks could potentially be no different. He’s been taken down before, and by significantly lesser wrestlers as well.
The problem is Hendrick’s unbridled power. He’s got knockout power in either hand and has the capability to land the one-shot KO at any point in the fight. And he loves to throw it, too, and thus how he gives it up a ton of takedowns. His big wild misses have allowed guys who have no right to take him down to get inside on him for doubles. Charlie Brenneman was deep on a double in the first round of their fight many moons ago; GSP could easily do the same thing to Hendricks based off the wrestler’s wild swings.
The problem becomes when Hendricks throws that big left and connects on the chin. Martin Kampmann may not have the best chin … but at one point you could hit Jon Fitch with a crowbar and he’d shake it off. Hendricks turned the lights off with one punch. He’s got power in his right, as well, but he hits like a freight train in highlights off his left. GSP has to be leery of getting into a firefight with Hendricks and letting him get close with either hand. GSP was put out by Matt Serra, and nearly finished by Carlos Condit, with strikes. If there’s one weakness GSP has it’s that he panics when he gets rocked. He’s gotten better at it, as the Condit fight showed him maintaining his composure, but old habits die hard.
If Hendricks can land something big and get him on roller skates its bad news for GSP’s title reign. And that’ll be Hendricks’ game plan. Sprawl, brawl and look to turn the lights off as soon as he can. If he can get a takedown and notch some rounds it’ll be all the better … but Hendricks isn’t really known for trying to win decisions. He likes turning the lights out and I can see him focusing on looking for that one big shot to end it.
The key to it all will be Hendricks and his cardio. GSP is known for putting a pace on guys and out-lasting them. He hasn’t fought or had to train for three rounds since 2007 so he’s used to a full 25. Hendricks isn’t. He can talk about his cardio not being a factor but that’s just what it is: talk. He hasn’t fought 25 minutes in the UFC and with a massive weight cut we don’t know how his body will react to it. His cardio should be on point, of course, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he’s sluggish going into the fourth or fifth rounds. GSP is going to put a hard pace on him and see just how tuned up his cardio really is.
Why it matters – With a win GSP finishes off a third generation of contenders and moves into sole place for discussion of greatest UFC champion of all time. Not greatest welterweight champion. Greatest champion ever … end of story. You don’t clean out a division multiple times, and do so dominantly, without earning that status. Anderson Silva is the best fighter of his era. Fedor was the standard bearer for the Pride FC era of MMA. GSP wins here and he’s the greatest UFC champion to ever hold a belt. Right now it’s arguable with GSP getting the nod. A win over yet another guy threatening his throne? You can’t argue against him at that point. In a division that’s arguably the most stacked in the UFC to be the Michael Jordan of MMA, to have made so many guys come up second who’d normally have held a UFC belt, would be remarkable.
A win here isn’t a colossal upset by any stretch of the means for Hendricks. It would just destroy the last remnants of the Silva/GSP superfight that has been brewing for years. Hendricks is a worthy contender but GSP seems unstoppable. It would mark a wild 2013 for the UFC’s longest reigning champions to both lose their belts in the same year.
Prediction – Georges St. Pierre
