The main event of UFC On FOX 10 is a pivotal lightweight bout featuring two former champions as former UFC and WEC Lightweight Champion Benson Henderson fights for the first time since losing the UFC title as he takes on former Strikeforce Lightweight Champion Josh Thomson. Henderson is coming off of losing the championship to Anthony Pettis at UFC 164 in August. That ended Henderson’s seven-fight win streak and he’s looking to start a fresh one. Thomson is looking to stamp his claim for a title shot after his scheduled fight with Pettis was cancelled due to an injury to Pettis. Thomson will be attempting to score his second straight win after a TKO win over Nate Diaz at UFC On FOX 7 in April in his UFC return.
Fight Breakdown- This is a high-quality bout featuring two former champions who are accustomed to going five rounds, and this fight is set up to be another potentially exciting 25-minute fight. Henderson is trying to shake off the disappointment of losing the UFC Lightweight Championship to Anthony Pettis in August. Many fans who have seen Henderson’s fights thought of him to be almost unsubmittable. He had been in bad positions before only to escape, and when Pettis locked him in an armbar, most would assume that he was going to get out. When the fight suddenly stopped with no tap and no sign of verbal submission, it was almost surreal that Henderson had actually submitted because Pettis seemed to be the only one who heard it. Perhaps it was so quiet due to the fact he was going to be losing to Pettis, the second time he has in a career that has just three blemishes on it. Henderson saw his seven-fight win streak ended, which saw him win the title from Frankie Edgar and win subsequent defenses against Edgar, Nate Diaz and Gilbert Melendez. Henderson will be looking to avenge his losses to Pettis, but that may take more than a win over Thomson.
Thomson is coming off, arguably, the most impressive win of his career when he made his UFC return in April at UFC On FOX 7. He became the first fighter to ever score a knockout win over Nate Diaz, finishing him with a head kick and some punches to cement himself as an instant title contender in the tough UFC lightweight division. Thomson a lot of times doesn’t get the credit he deserves as he came into the UFC from Strikeforce and wasn’t originally ranked in the top ten of the UFC’s lightweight rankings. That changed instantly with his win over Diaz as he moved right into the top five of the rankings and was granted the next title shot when Anthony Pettis defeated Benson Henderson. Thomson was scheduled to fight Pettis last month at UFC On FOX 9, but Pettis was forced out due to a knee injury. Thomson has been out of action since that April fight, not due to anything having to do with him, but instead of waiting for Pettis to return from injury, he is putting his title opportunity on the line against Henderson. Thomson hasn’t seen much action over the years due to injuries as he has fought just three times since the end of 2010, but the former Strikeforce Lightweight Champion has looked impressive in those three fights, and his one loss in those three, to Gilbert Melendez, was a fight many thought he won.
Thomson has been openly talking about how this has been the worst training camp of his career as he prepares for the main event against Henderson on Saturday night. It is hard to know whether or not he is true with those statements, and if he is, what he actually means by it. Maybe it is the worst of his career because it has been the toughest, or maybe it is because it has been hard to prepare for Henderson. Perhaps he is playing mind games, and if he is, Henderson isn’t buying it. The performances of both men on Saturday night will show what the preparation has paid off for them. Thomson tends to fight a lot like Pettis, and while he may not be as crafty as Pettis is with his kicks, Thomson utilizies just as many kicks and is just as effective with them. He rocked Diaz badly with a head kick before finishing him with punches, and Diaz is a fighter we have rarely seen in trouble on the feet. Henderson is also a fighter we have rarely seen in trouble on the feet, but that doesn’t mean he isn’t vulnerable. He was getting hurt by body kicks from Pettis before being submitted, and perhaps the body kicks had a lot to do with that. Thomson should use a similar game plan and attack the body with kicks as that seems to be what can slow Henderson down.
Henderson has a kick-driven attack on the feet and fights as a southpaw. He doesn’t have a lot of power in his hands but is physically strong. He does tend to get wild with his hands and is more comfortable attacking with kicks to the legs and body. Thomson has good movement on his feet and switches stances with consistency. Henderson tends to leave himself open for counters when he goes for kicks, so Thomson should look to find openings. Henderson likes to set a relentless pace, but Thomson can match him on pushing the pace. Thomson should look to utilize the jab against Henderson as it will slow the movement of Henderson. Thomson also has the ability to string together solid combinations of kicks, and that could keep things interesting on the feet, and he should use his full arsenal of kicks to keep Henderson at a distance. Allowing Henderson to get on the inside could become troublesome for Thomson and it is where Henderson can start to take the fight over.
Henderson is very good in close range when getting in the clinch and applying pressure. Henderson has good wrestling, but so does Thomson. Both men have good takedown defense as well. When it comes to the ground work, Thomson is very underrated on the ground and can find a way to try and catch Henderson. Both men have black belts in jiu-jitsu, but Henderson’s strength is where he may take the edge in the fight. His physical power can drain Thomson if Thomson is forced to spend a prolonged amount of time trying to defend the takedown, and if Thomson is having to defend the takedown a lot, it will begin to show in the waning moments of the fight. Both men have excellent conditioning and will be ready to go for 25 minutes, and there is a very, very good chance it will go the full distance. It will come down to whoever gets the edge on the feet and if Thomson can do enough in the clinch and on the ground to convince the judges he is getting the better of Henderson. This will probably be another close fight that both men are accustomed to being in, and the outcome will likely be debated. Thomson is on a roll right now and his striking is just a tad better overall, and he has all the tools to win the fight if he can control the pace. I am going with Thomson in a very, very close fight that goes to the scorecards.
Why It Matters- A title shot hangs in the balance for Thomson in this fight. It is very simple for him- if he wins the fight, he gets a title shot. If he finishes Henderson, then he is guaranteed a title shot when Anthony Pettis comes back. A loss sends him back down the ladder, and it is possible that the title shot may never come back. He has to win this fight, and he knows it. Thomson was considered the man to be the UFC Lightweight Champion way back in the pre-TUF era, but the division was abolished for a period of time, and he went on to dominate the Strikeforce lightweight division alongside Gilbert Melendez. Both are now looking to top the UFC lightweight division. Henderson has been at the top of the division almost seemingly since he moved over from the WEC, and he had his reign as champion. While many champions who made multiple title defenses like Henderson did get rematches, the fact that Henderson has lost twice to Pettis makes it seem like he may need three wins or so to get another crack at Pettis. Starting with a win over Thomson would get him back on track towards getting the championship back. A loss and it may be several years before Henderson is fighting for a title again.
Prediction- Thomson
