It’s the UFC’s annual January show in Chicago, IL, and it’s time to break down the four fight main card on terrestrial television. Joining me for this card is Ryan Frederick, who’ll also be covering the live play by play.
Benson Henderson vs. Josh Thomson
Frederick: I love this matchup and hate this matchup at the same time. I think it’ll be a great fight and I’m looking forward to it, but I don’t like the fact it could kill off a title contender when there are a lot of contenders being knocked off at 155 pounds. Thomson gets the title shot with a win, but Henderson is likely three fights away from one due to the fact he has twice lost to Anthony Pettis. With Thomson knowing that, he knows he has a lot riding on this fight, and I think he will fight a smart fight and attack the body of Henderson, who is vulnerable there. Henderson has great physical strength and is a smart fighter who likes to work in the clinch. It will be super close like most of these guys’ fights, but I think Thomson barely pulls out a decision win. Thomson
Sawitz: This is the same type of matchup that’d make me pull my hair out (if I still had hair, that is) that Carlos Condit vs. Johny Hendricks was a year ago. It’s a great fight and I love it … but Thomson is a title contender and Henderson isn’t at this point. If ‘Smooth’ wins … he won’t be getting a title shot anytime soon against Anthony Pettis. I like Thomson in this fight … but this reeks of “Henderson by insanely controversial split decision” and I’ll do that. Henderson
Stipe Miocic vs. Gabriel Gonzaga
Frederick: These are two powerful heavyweights with heavy hands and big knockout power. Both men have chins that can be hurt, but Miocic survived some big punches from Roy Nelson. Gonzaga has been on a tear and has two knockout wins since the last time Miocic even fought. That could be good for either man. Gonzaga has the grappling credentials while Miocic is a solid wrestler. However, this one ends with the hands. I’m leaning towards Miocic. Miocic
Sawitz: Miocic looked like a prospect who couldn’t become a contender after the Struve fight. That was my initial gut instinct. And then he came out and lit Roy Nelson up for 15 minutes, looking like a contender. So I don’t know what to make of him at this point. Gonzaga is a great test as usually Gonzaga trashes guys who are prospects who won’t become contenders; he’s that litmus test. I think he fails this for some reason. I like Miocic to win … but I can’t push that button for him. Gonzaga
Donald Cerrone vs. Adriano Martins
Frederick: An unknown fighter is sometimes the most dangerous opponent, and Martins is a tough opponent for Cerrone. Cerrone wins the fights he is expected to but always tends to falter against top-level competition. This fight is made for Cerrone to win, but Martins is being overlooked and is a dangerous opponent with solid hands. Cerrone is more well-rounded, and he seems more focused now than ever at making a true run at the lightweight title. Cerrone wins this. Cerrone
Sawitz: Martins is a tough out but he’s going into deep waters really early into his career. I like him as a contender … but not now. This reminds me of Buddy Roberts/Yushin Okami in that a guy with talent gets thrown to the wolves early on to see if he’ll sink or swim. I think Cerrone takes him into those deep waters and he drowns him. Cerrone
Darren Elkins vs. Jeremy Stephens
Frederick: I love that this fight is getting the FOX treatment as it is a solid piece of matchmaking. Stephens has looked impressive in his two fights at 145 pounds and Elkins is a very underrated fighter in the division. Elkins has the wrestling to dominate this fight on the mat so Stephens should be prepared with his takedown defense. Stephens has excellent power and can finish this fight with one punch. That gives Stephens the slight edge, but I’m going with Elkins on this one. Elkins
Sawitz: This would normally be called the “People’s Main Event” on the undercard and it gets to be on main Fox. Stephens looks like he belongs at featherweight and Elkins is a great test of his potential championship mettle. I like Elkins but I think his ceiling is coming into focus: he’s a good out, potentially a Top 10 guy, but never elite. He doesn’t seem to have that gear. Stephens has fought tougher guys closer … and I think this is a barnburner but Stephens walks away with a win. And a very violent one, too. Stephens
