A lightweight bout opens the main card of UFC 169 on Saturday night in Newark as former WEC Lightweight Champion Jamie Varner looks to get back into the win column when he takes on Abel Trujillo. Varner is a replacement for Bobby Green, who was originally scheduled to fight Trujillo before he pulled out of the bout. Varner is looking to bounce back from a close decision loss to Gleison Tibau at UFC 164 in August. Varner is 4-2 over his last six fights. Trujillo is looking for his first back-to-back triumph in the UFC after defeating Roger Bowling by knockout at UFC On FOX 9 in December. Trujillo is 6-1 with a no contest over his last eight fights.
Fight Breakdown- Jamie Varner will be fighting for the fifth time since making his return to the UFC in 2012, and he is looking to get back on track following a disappointing result in his last fight. Varner was set to return in December against Pat Healy, but he was forced out due to injury and replaced by Bobby Green. In a bit of coincidence, Varner is taking this fight on short notice as a replacement for Green, and he is taking it with about five weeks’ notice. Varner is a former WEC Lightweight Champion, winning the title in February 2008 and defending it twice, including once against Donald Cerrone. Injuries kept Varner out of action for a year, and when he returned he lost the title to Benson Henderson, and then went winless over four fights and was cut from Zuffa following the merger of the WEC into the UFC. He went 3-1 outside of the UFC and jumped at the chance to return on short notice against the talented Edson Barboza. Varner handed Barboza the only loss of his career in a huge upset at UFC 146 in May 2012, and he showed he was back at a high level. Varner has had ups-and-downs, rotating wins-and-losses, as he had a win over Melvin Guillard sandwiched between losses to Joe Lauzon and Gleison Tibau.
Abel Trujillo is a big and powerful lightweight who looks like he could fight a weight class or two above as he is built well. He struggled early in his career by going just 5-4 over his first nine professional fights. Trujillo went on a solid win streak following a submission loss in April 2011, winning four straight fights to get signed to the UFC roster. It took a little bit of time to get Trujillo inside the Octagon as his debut fight was pushed back due to UFC 151 being cancelled, and his fight against Tim Means was cancelled on the day of weigh-ins for UFC On FOX 5. Luckily for Trujillo, Marcus LeVesseur was on standby following the cancellation of his fight, so LeVesseur stepped in and fought Trujillo at UFC On FOX 5 in December 2012. Trujillo won the fight by knockout in the second round, extending his win streak to five. That win streak ended in his next fight as he was dominated by Khabib Nurmagomedov en route to a decision loss at UFC 160 in May. Trujillo then had two fights against Roger Bowling. Their first fight ended in controversy as Trujillo landed what appeared to be an illegal knee and the fight was stopped and ruled a no contest. They rematched at UFC On FOX 9 in December and Trujillo won the fight convincingly by scoring a second-round knockout. Trujillo looks for his second straight win and his eighth stoppage win when he takes on Varner.
While the fight between Green and Trujillo was expected to be an entertaining slugfest, Varner replacing Green shouldn’t change the dynamic of the fight as Varner likes to stand and trade punches, and so does Trujillo. This has the chance to be a fun and entertaining battle. Varner has amateur boxing experience and a big right hand, but he also mixes himself well as he utilizes his jab well as well as leg kicks and standing elbows. Trujillo is a powerful striker with vicious knees and the ability to finish fights whenever he wants to, especially when he finds his opponent in a lot of danger. Varner has a solid chin, but he may lose if he decides to exchange in a slugfest with Trujillo, but Varner is very tough and won’t go down easily. Trujillo hasn’t been finished with punches since his third professional fight, but his chin has yet to be really tested inside the Octagon. He did take some good punches from Bowling, but Varner does pack more power and is more versatile than Bowling is.
If Varner finds himself in trouble on the feet with Trujillo, he should look to mix in takedowns. Varner has solid wrestling and Trujillo can be taken down as evidenced in his fight with Nurmagomedov, who took Trujillo down more than anyone has ever been taken down inside the UFC Octagon. Despite all of that, Trujillo actually has good takedown defense and the ability to keep the fight standing, plus he has been working with Kenny Monday in improving his wrestling. He needs to be ready to be taken down, and Varner should be ready to take Trujillo down. Top control will be important for Varner to establish if he is going to get by Trujillo. Varner is averaging three takedowns per fight since his return, and he is active going for submissions. Trujillo should be looking to fend off submission attempts, and he should look for his own as Varner can be submitted. Varner is taking the fight on short notice, but he has taken a lot of fights on short notice lately, so he has grown accustomed to it. This will be a fun slugfest, but gameplanning will be key. Both men could really use a win and neither can afford much in the way of a loss. Varner has the tools neccessary to give Trujillo a tough fight and be able to escape with a win, and he will on the scorecards.
Why It Matters- The loser will find themselves in the precarious position of being faced with a win-or-be-cut scenario in their next fights. Both men are taking the fight on relatively short notice. Trujillo is facing a quick turnaround after fighting on December 14. Varner is taking another fight on short notice, the fourth time in his five fights since rejoining the UFC that he has been fighting on short notice. With that being the case, Varner may get several more chances in the UFC with a loss. This is the chance for both men to state their case for bigger fights down the line. Varner had success against the Blackzilian camp when he defeated former team member Melvin Guillard, and he should utilize a similar gameplan as he did during that fight. Trujillo is a power house, but his spotty record shows he is vulnerable and never get past a certain level in the UFC. Varner may never get past that level either. Both men are solid fighters to have on the roster, and hopefully both will be around for at least all of 2014.
Prediction- Varner
