The co-main event of UFC 169 is a second title fight as the UFC Featherweight Championship is on the line when the champion and number two ranked pound-for-pound fighter Jose Aldo defends the title for the sixth time in the UFC, and ninth time overall since winning it in the WEC, against contender Ricardo Lamas. Aldo has gotten to the top of the featherweight division by winning 16 straight fights, and he has just one loss in his career. He is coming off a knockout win over Chan Sung Jung at UFC 163 in August. Lamas is looking for his fifth straight win after making the move down to 145 pounds from the lightweight division. He has been out of action for a year as he fights for the first time since knocking out Erik Koch at UFC On FOX 6 in January 2013.
Fight Breakdown- Jose Aldo is one of the best fighters on the planet, but he seems at times to not get the same recognition that the other great fighters get. Perhaps it has to do with the fact he is just a featherweight as the lower weight classes do get ignored a lot. He is in the co-main event slot on this card, but that is a good thing that makes this a somewhat stacked card, and it gives him the chance to show he deserves to be the main event. Aldo debuted with Zuffa in June 2008 in the WEC and reeled off five straight knockout wins, capped off with a seven-second knockout of current UFC featherweight contender Cub Swanson, leading to a fight against Mike Brown for the WEC Featherweight Championship. Aldo won the title by scoring a second-round knockout of Brown in November 2009, and that led to a showdown with Urijah Faber in the only WEC pay-per-view event. Aldo beat Faber by a decision in his first title defense, and he has since scored wins over Manny Gamburyan, Mark Hominick, Kenny Florian, Chad Mendes and Chan Sung Jung in subsequent title defenses. Despite going the distance in four of his last seven fights, Aldo is known for his finishing power having scored 16 of his 23 wins by knockout or submission.
Ricardo Lamas has been on a roll since moving down from the lightweight division to the featherweight division following the merger of the WEC into the UFC. Lamas started his career with six straight wins capped off with a decision win over Bart Palaszewski in his WEC debut. He then suffered his first loss to Danny Castillo, but then followed that up with a new three-fight win streak. Lamas suffered his second, and last, loss to Iuri Alcantara at the final WEC event, but he was selected to move over to the UFC roster in the merger. Lamas dropped down to featherweight when he moved to the UFC and has won four straight since doing so, with three of those wins coming by stoppage. He won his UFC debut over Matt Grice by first-round TKO at UFC Live 4, and then followed that with a second-round “Submission Of The Night” win over Cub Swanson at UFC On FOX 1 in November 2011. Lamas followed that with a decision win over Hatsu Hioki, and most recently scored a second-round TKO win over Erik Koch at UFC On FOX 6 in January 2013. Lamas was expected to fight Chan Sung Jung at UFC 162 in July, but Jung was pulled from the bout to fight Aldo at UFC 163, a slot that Lamas thought he deserved. It was perhaps due to Jung being a more marketable challenger for Aldo, but now Lamas will get his crack at Aldo despite being out of action for just over a year.
There is a very good reason that Aldo is ranked as the second best fighter in the world- he is really, really awesome. He has vicious striking, excellent takedown defense, and while we haven’t seen much of his groundwork, he does have a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. Lamas too has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu now as he was promoted during this training camp preparing for his Saturday night title showdown against Aldo. Lamas likes to brawl, he is a good wrestler with NCAA Division III experience, and he has good submission grappling. Inactivity has kept him out of the limelight, but that isn’t particularly his fault. He was supposed to fight in July, but with his opponent being pulled, Lamas never got a rescheduled fight as the featherweight division is deep with talent. It worked out well for him with him being named the top contender over other fighters, but ring rust could become a factor as Lamas has now missed more than a year of action. Perhaps a fight in August really would have benefitted him, but there was always that possibility he could have lost and not gotten this opportunity. That was a risk not taken, and Saturday will be time to see if it pays off.
Lamas is aggressive on his feet, but Aldo is a completely different animal when standing. He has outstanding speed, spectacular power and a technique that no one in the 145-pound division, and not many in the sport, can match. He is a dangerous finisher, and he can find finishes out of nowhere with any of his limbs as his killer instinct is second-to-none. Aldo will attack the legs of his opponents with kicks, especially opponents he expects to start utilizing wrestling. Lamas will likely look to utilize his wrestling and he will need to establish his jab in order to close the distance. That may be a bad idea, though, as Aldo is willing to let his opponents use the jab to close distance, and when a shot is taken, Aldo will counter with knees and kicks that can end the fight. Aldo has excellent takedown defense anyways, but he needs to keep his neck from being exposed to Lamas as Lamas has a dangerous guillotine choke. Lamas may not have the wrestling ability of some of Aldo’s previous opponents, but he can take Aldo down if he can avoid having his legs taken away from him, especially if the fight goes into the latter stages.
Aldo has one big glaring problem that could resurface if the fight drags past the third round, and that is he gets tired past the 15-minute mark. He got tired against Mark Hominick and almost lost the fight in the fifth round (though, to his credit, he was very ill and it resulted in a rough weight cut, but those things do happen in the sport.) He tired against Frankie Edgar, and while Edgar came up short in the end, he started to mount a comeback. He was showing signs of fatigue against Jung, but Jung’s in-fight injury nulled that. Lamas is an aggressive striker, and while constant pressure could wear Aldo out quicker, dragging the fight into the late rounds may swing this towards an upset. Lamas should find a way to work in the clinch against the fence, but Aldo is also very strong and works well off of the fence. Lamas should be thinking “pressure, pressure, pressure” while at the same time having a versatile attack. Everything sounds good on paper for Lamas to have a chance, but that is very much easier said than done.
Aldo is going to go after those legs, and his powerful leg kicks are going to hurt Lamas. Trying to beat Aldo on the feet will almost turn into a lost cause for Lamas, so he will have to rely on his wrestling and grappling. Aldo will want to keep this fight standing, but he does have the ability to take this fight to the ground should he choose to do so. He broke his foot against Jung, and it changed his gameplan, and if that happens again when he is fighting Lamas, it may allow Lamas to pull off this upset. Lamas is more well-rounded than Jung. Lamas isn’t careless on his feet, and he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes. He can finish fights with his striking or his submissions, and he is dangerous. Aldo is on another level though. Lamas can score a huge upset if Aldo gets tired quickly, but that will be asking for a lot. Aldo is one of the best in the world for good reason, and he will show it again on Saturday night. A steady barrage of leg kicks and knees will wear down Lamas, and when the championship rounds become in sight, Aldo will finish it. It doesn’t look like this one is going the distance as Aldo finishes it before the championship rounds.
Why It Matters- There is potentially a big fight on the horizon for Aldo should he defeat Lamas as word making the rounds in recent days suggest that Aldo will move to the lightweight division and challenge Anthony Pettis in July should Aldo remain the 145-pound champion. That could leave the featherweight division wide open, and there is a wide range of challengers waiting in the wings. The UFC could conceivably set up an eight-man tournament for the title should Aldo vacate it, and Lamas would likely be part of it even if he loses. There is a very good number of challengers waiting, and Aldo would have no shortage of fights at 145 pounds. However, lightweight and Pettis seem to be calling, though it could be a mistake for Aldo as his only professional loss came in his only fight as a lightweight. The result sets up a lot of intriguing things- Aldo wins, and he is likely off to a superfight and the championship is vacated and up for grabs. Lamas wins and we will probably see these two square off once again. Lamas winning would be a major upset, but we have seen stranger things happen in this sport recently.
Prediction- Aldo
