UFC 169: Urijah Faber vs. Renan Barao Preview

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If you’d have said nearly two years ago that Urijah Faber would wreck the 135 lb. division and manage to get another shot at a UFC title I’d have called you crazy. And yet Faber has finished three Top 10 opponents in the last year, and took a decision over a fourth, to find himself back into the title picture. Renan Barao has defended an interim title in the meantime, bumped up to proper champion after Dominick Cruz’s recurring injuries have effectively shelved three years of his career.

Now, on three weeks’ notice, “The California Kid” goes once more into the fray against a Brazilian who may be one of the toughest outs in MMA.

Fight Breakdown – This is going to be a fight of adjustments from both fighters. We know what they’re good at and how they’ll finish fights. The key to this fight is going to be how they’ve adjusted from the first to one another.

Faber needs to get off first and fight like there is no tomorrow. He can’t make mistakes, of course, that a fighter throwing caution to the wind does. He needs to come out hell bent for leather like he does when he’s not fighting for a title. I wrote about five fights he needs to study and use for his game plan for Cage Potato and it’s the absolute truth. He has to have learned from his past fight and come out like the crazed fighter who choked out three elite fighters in 2013. The “non title killer” has to show up.

“The California Kid” can’t let Barao dictate the pace and be the dominant fighter. He also needs to use his cardio, perhaps his best weapon, and test how hard of a pace Barao can go for 25 minutes. Faber let Barao dictate everything in their first fight and Faber needs to push an exhausting pace to see if he can make the younger fighter crack.

Barao needs to do what he did in the first fight. Get off first, set the pace and keep Faber at distance. He has the reach and length advantage and he needs to get Faber to do something stupid. Faber is a tough out but Barao can make it. He still has the advantage standing, although that factor has shrunk with the addition of Duane Ludwig to Team Alpha Male, and he’ll win by keeping this standing.

Why It Matters – It’s for a title, the true bantamweight title at that, which is usually more than enough to make it matter. But it matters for the challenger on a much more profound level than it does the champion.

This is most likely Urijah Faber’s last chance at a UFC title. We’ve said it before but Faber’s the wrong side of 30 and needed one of the most amazing years for a fighter ever to get here. If he loses what does he have to do to get another shot?

His 2013 was absolutely remarkable because he was set up to lose to some other contender, so they could get that final pedigree, and Faber kept winning. The fact that he had such a remarkable streak where he improved another 10 percent from where he onc was is remarkable, especially since he’s closer to the end than the beginning of his career. It’ll take more than the four ranked fighters he beat to get there and I’m not sure if he has that in him again.

Prediction – Faber