It’s Super Bowl weekend and, as always, we have a fight card of good proportions the night before the biggest football game of the year. Two belts are on the line as two of the Top 10 pound for pound fighters defend UFC titles. As with every card the Insde Fights staff is up for predicting what’ll happen.
Joining me is Ryan Frederick
Renan Barao vs. Urijah Faber
Frederick: I know I am not alone in this world in thinking that this is the weekend we finally see UFC gold strapped around the waist of Faber. He’s been on such a tear since losing the first time to Barao and the addition of Duane Ludwig as coach has been great. That is a big X-factor that wasn’t there the first time. I think Faber is in a better place mentally and physically as opposed to July 2012. Barao is great and him winning wouldn’t be a shocker at all- he certainly is the favorite for a reason. I’m going with the gut feeling of a destiny being fulfilled though. Faber
Sawitz: There are emotional picks and there are logical picks when it comes to anything in life. From sport to food to love, we can pick with our brains or are hearts. Logic tells me to pick Barao because he’s an elite fighter and no one in the division can match everything he does. Barao is just a slightly smaller version of his training partner (Jose Aldo) in a lot of ways, the main one being that he’s elite at nearly everything in MMA. Nothing Urijah Faber does besides wrestling is better than anything Barao does; Barao also has an emphatic decision win over Faber already. But this just feels like Faber’s time to grab a belt in the same way it felt like Chris Weidman’s time last summer against Anderson Silva. When I think through it, and in my prediction, everything seemed to point to Barao but I just can’t pull the trigger on it. Faber
Jose Aldo vs. Ricardo Lamas
Sawitz: I have one steadfast rule when it comes to MMA: I never pick against Jose Aldo. He could be fighting God and Jesus Christ in a tag team MMA fight, with one arm behind his back, and I’d still pick Aldo to win. Lamas is a tough, tough out and it won’t be easy for Aldo. But this fight reminds me of the Mendes fight and Lamas is a slightly poorer version of the TAM product. I think Aldo wins this in a fight much closer than anyone is giving him credit for. Aldo
Frederick: Aldo is winning this. Upsets can and have happened, and if Lamas can drag Aldo to the point in the fight where he gets tired, there is always a chance. I feel like Lamas is underrated at 145 pounds as he has a solid mix of power striking, wrestling and submission grappling. However, Aldo is in a class by himself at featherweight and he may truly be the best fighter on the planet today. There are big things ahead for him, and plans seemed to get derailed quite often in the UFC. They can almost bank on an Aldo win though, but Lamas is going to put up a fight. Aldo
Frank Mir vs. Alistair Overeem
Sawitz: The blueprint for beating Mir is simple: bully him against the cage and then tee off until he goes out. Overeem’s kind of good at this and I don’t think Mir can stop him at this point. Mir hopefully has learned from the various fights he’ lost over the years to not get pushed against the cage and wrecked. I’ve picked Overeem the last two times he’s fought and been burned, thus I’m picking Mir.
Frederick: This is the biggest must-win of both mens’ careers. The general feeling is the loser is gone. While both have a high price tag, with the amount of events the UFC is running and with both men having good name value, I’d keep both around. I think Mir’s chin is shot and if Overeem can not gas himself out quickly, then he’ll score the knockout in the first five minutes. Mir’s best chance is getting this one on the mat. I don’t see it happening. Overeem
John Lineker vs. Ali Bagautinov
Sawitz: Lineker barely made weight, which isn’t a good sign. Something has to give as making 126 is an incredible task for him and I think he might be better served at bantamweight at this point. Either that or he needs to have Mike Dolce live with him for six months or something. I still thinks he takes it, but it’ll be a lot closer than we think. Lineker
Frederick: Lineker is going to have to go through two battles this week: the battle inside the Octagon and the battle to make weight. There is zero doubt he is talented and I favor him in this fight, though Bagautinov is a tough opponent. Lineker has power that most flyweights don’t have, and if he can string everything together, he is going to be a tough challenger for Demetrious Johnson. Lineker
Jamie Varner vs. Abel Trujillo
Sawitz: I like Varner but I think his final run is over. He’s been too inconsistent against top competition and I think he drops this one to Trujillo, probably violently. Trujillo
Frederick: Both men have been inconsistent in their careers, especially Varner. He has seen his momentum coming off the upset of Edson Barboza come to a halt, but he could’ve easily won his last fight. Trujillo is a powerhouse lightweight with scary power, and he has the ability to knock Varner out. Varner steps up on short notice, and I think he takes a close fight. Varner
