Lyoto Machida looked super impressive in dispatching Mark Munoz in his middleweight debut In October of last year, looking sleeker and faster than he ever has. With a flashy knockout of Munoz, Machida moved into title contention discussions fairly quickly and now is potentially one win away from a title shot against the winner of Vitor Belfort vs. Chris Weidman.
As always with a Machida fight it could have an amazing knockout … or be incredibly god awful. Machida is a crazy fighter in that he has some of the best knockouts in UFC history to his credit … alongside some of the worst fights in MMA history as well. We could get an amazing, close fight like Rua/Machida 1 … or a fight so awful people were falling asleep at a Tilted Kilt like Henderson/Machida or Davis/Machida. It’s half the fun, it seems, in that we can either get something amazing or something exceptionally dull.
Either way Machida has kicked his way into title contender territory, needing one more win to perhaps get the winner of Belfort/Weidman. Standing in his way of a title shot is Gegard Mousasi, making his debut at 185 after a length stay up at light heavyweight. Can he solve the riddle of Lyoto Machida? Or will he be awoken with smelling salts like Ryan Bader? We’ll find out Saturday night in Brazil.
Fight breakdown: The key to this fight is, like every Machida fight, going to be in Mousasi’s ability to adapt to “The Dragon” and his counter-punch heavy style. He has the striking chops to do something in the cage but the only way he wins is if he solves the riddle early and makes Machida pay for it.
He needs to avoid rushing Machida and doing anything desperate out of his aggressiveness. Machida has that one stop KO power and Mousasi has to be cautious when engaging. He needs to follow Shogun Rua’s style from his second fight with Machida, as he has a similar skillset, and use movement to trap Machida and not let him back out. The times he gets Machida where he needs him to be he needs to clearly out work him.
That’s his way of winning. Trap Machida, use movement against him and outland him. Mousasi has a terrific ground game but odds are he won’t be able to get Machida down. He shouldn’t try, either, as my guess is he keeps this standing and works to out-land Machida. Machida has this way of looking like he’s winning, even when it’s close, because he makes guys miss enough that the relatively few shots he hits in return appear bigger. Mousasi needs to make it look like he’s winning while he’s winning or else this could wind up being a bad judge’s decision away from a Machida win.
Machida needs to bait him into doing something stupid and charge in, like he usually does, and work his counter style from there. Mousasi is a great striker, of course, but Machida should be able to hold his own standing.
Why it matters: Machida wins in dominant fashion, or with a finish, and he’s set to try and stake his claim to a guy who’s finished his best friend and training partner twice. It’d make a great story, as Machida looks to do what Anderson Silva couldn’t, and might be Machida’s last shot at fighting for a title. Machida is on the wrong side of 30 and fights the same way as his training partner. When it goes … it goes quickly and Machida’s countering style is only going to work for so long before he stops being quick enough to evade.
The time for the “Machida Era” to begin anew, and for all the TMA donks to cream their jeans at the thought of a “Karate Guy” holding UFC gold, is now. If not … it’s probably over for him as a contender. He’s still an elite talent but losing here puts him in a similar spot as Urijah Faber; he’s had this time at the top and with middleweight suddenly flush with contenders and challengers it could be a while before he fights his way back into the title picture.
A win here for Mousasi and he’s in the title picture but not necessarily going to get the next shot at Weidman … unless he dominates and finishes Machida. Victory will get him into a title eliminator, most likely against either the winner of Kennedy/Bisping or Carmont/Souza.
Prediction: Machida
