Mike Pyle (25-9-1, 8-4 UFC) vs. T.J. Waldburger (16-8, 4-3 UFC)
A welterweight bout featuring two UFC veterans looking to bounce back from knockout losses moves to the main card as Mike Pyle takes on T.J. Waldburger. Pyle saw his four-fight win streak halted in August when he suffered a first-round knockout loss at the hands of Matt Brown. He is 7-2 over his last nine fights. Waldburger is also coming off of a first-round knockout loss, to Adlan Amagov at UFC 166 in October. He is 3-2 over his last five fights.
Fight Breakdown- Mike Pyle is one of the veterans of the sport, having been around since debuting way back in 1999. Prior to his current run as a member of the UFC roster, many UFC fans recognized him as the main guy in the corner of Forrest Griffin during Griffin’s heyday as a UFC champion. Pyle has been a coach in the Las Vegas scene for years, but he has 35 fights under his belt, and his recent stretch of fights may have been the best stretch of his career. Since coming up short in his UFC debut against Brock Larson (he did take the fight the week of the event), Pyle has won eight of eleven fights to get himself hovering around the top ten of the welterweight rankings. His only losses since 2009 have come to Jake Ellenberger, Rory MacDonald and Matt Brown- all three are solidly in the top ten at 170 pounds. He has a solid finishing rate, having won 21 of his 25 fights by stoppage, and while 16 of those have been by submission, he has shown his power in recent fights as three of his last four wins have come by knockout. He holds wins in his career over many notable UFC veterans, including Josh Neer, John Hathaway, Rick Story, and former title challenger Jon Fitch.
T.J. Waldburger will be stepping inside the Octagon for the eighth time since joining the UFC roster in 2010, and he is looking to remain above .500 and avoid being put under consideration for being cut from the roster. Waldburger started his professional career with just a modest 9-5 record but a three-fight win streak capped with winning the Shark Fights Welterweight Championship and defending it against current UFC fighter Pat Healy earned Waldburger a contract with the UFC. He debuted with a decision win over David Mitchell in September 2010, but was quickly thrown to the wolves and knocked out by Johny Hendricks in his second UFC appearance. He bounced back with back-to-back submission wins over Mike Stumpf and Jake Hecht. However, Waldburger has since lost two of his last three fights. He dropped a decision to Brian Ebersole in June 2012 and then submitted Nick Catone in December 2012 before suffering the knockout loss to Adlan Amagov in October. Injuries limited him to just the one fight in 2013, and he looks to get healthy and avoid falling to 1-3 over his last four fights, and potentially being cut, when he fights Mike Pyle on Saturday night.
Pyle and Waldburger got the bump up from the opener on the FOX Sports 1 prelims to the main card when an injury forced the cancellation of a fight between Rafael Dos Anjos and Rustam Khabilov, and they got the bump for a good reason as it figures to be a fun little scrap. Pyle is going to rely on his experience in getting him past Waldburger. There is a 13-year gap in age (Pyle is 38, Waldburger is 25), and while the age suggests Pyle may be heading towards the end of his career, his recent successes may tell otherwise. Waldburger goes to a finish a lot. He’s only been the distance four times in his 24-fight career. He has a slick jiu-jitsu game, and 13 of his 16 wins have come by submission while he has never been submitted in his career. However, Waldburger has been knocked out in six of his eight losses, and Pyle has displayed the ability to knock his opponents out lately. Waldburger has a slick guard and Pyle may be weary to play inside of it for extended periods of time, but Pyle’s solid wrestling base and composure should overcome the numerous submission attempts Waldburger will be after.
Waldburger doesn’t have the striking ability that Pyle does, but he has some solid power. He does get clumsy on the feet and sloppy, and against a veteran like Pyle, it will cost him. Pyle works well in the clinch and is good with knees and short elbows. He will execute trip takedowns if he can, and his guard is also very solid. While Waldburger has shown to be impossible to submit, or even come close to submitting, Pyle is the crafty type of veteran that certainly can do what no one else has done. However, if you watch film on Waldburger, you will see the glaringly obvious- he gets too wild in exchanges and his opponents make him pay for it. Pyle is going to do the same. He will bait him in for some exchanges as Waldburger goes for broke, but in the end, Pyle’s experience and fight IQ will get him the win with a TKO before the end of the second round.
Why It Matters- Pyle has been on the cusp of top ten status for a bit, but every time he gets one step closer, he loses to a top guy and knocks himself one step back. He does well in bounce back fights against mid-level competition, and that is what Waldburger should realistically call himself. While Pyle is getting up there in age, he has shown flashes of brilliance lately, and he does have the ability to remain a solid threat at 170 pounds and be a solid gatekeeper. He is in no danger of being cut from the roster for the foreseeable future. The same can’t be said for Waldburger, who finds himself almost in a must-win situation, if he already isn’t in that position. A loss would drop him to 1-3 over a four-fight span, and with the welterweight division being a crowded division, that may warrant a decision over his future being made. While I think he would be safe with a loss and get at least one more chance, that is far from a guarantee. A win over Pyle would secure himself for several more fights and get him a much needed win over a solid top-fifteen talent.
Prediction- Pyle
