UFC 170 Preview: Sara McMann vs. Ronda Rousey

Previews

Headlining UFC 170 this weekend is the UFC Women’s Bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey, looking to make her third consecutive title defense against Sara McMann. Rousey was last seen dispatching of rival Miesha Tate with her eighth straight armbar submission win. McMann has not fought since last April when she KO’d Sheila Gaff in the first round. One of these women will leave the Octagon with her first loss, and the other will leave with the title.

Fighter Summary

Sara McMann (7-0 overall, 1-0 UFC)

Strengths: Olympic medal winning wrestling, submissions

Weaknesses: Relatively inexperienced against elite opponents

Ronda Rousey (8-0 overall – all by armbar!, 2-0 UFC)

Strengths: Olympic medal winning judo, did I say armbar yet?

Weaknesses: Striking still a little unpolished

Fight Breakdown – For some odd reason, this fight seems like a sleeper, like it’s flying way under the radar than a typical Rousey fight. Perhaps it’s because Rousey is coming off of a huge win in the highly anticipated and hyped up rematch with Miesha Tate. If it seems like Rousey just fought, it’s because she did. She beat Tate less than two months ago. How often does a champion go three rounds in a championship match and come back to fight another top contender in less than two months? We rarely see a champion fight so soon again after competing, and that may be a reason why the hype for this fight hasn’t really had a chance to build. It’s not nearly on the same level as her Tate matchup, and that’s a shame because this one might be a whole lot closer.

It’s been said many times that history will be made here, since we have two female Olympic medalists facing each other in the Octagon. McMann won a silver medal in wrestling, and you better believe that’s going to help her in the clinch against Rousey. Rousey’s strategy is very straightforward: get the opponent down one way or another and set up an armbar. Simple as it sounds, she’s been so damn good at it that no one she has fought has managed to stop it, and only one person was able to get past the first round. Her judo is otherworldly compared to what anyone else brings to the table.

But this is the first time we’ll see her matched up against someone who is just as elite as she is in another area. Rousey may or may not be dominant in terms of the takedowns, throws, and trips. Let’s not forget, she ragdolled Miesha Tate multiple times in their last fight and that’s no mean feat. But even if she is able to do the same against McMann, which is not likely, McMann has the wrestling background to keep things close. It’s going to be interesting to see how the styles clash.

Don’t be surprised to see Rousey on her back at some point or points in the fight. One thing we learned from the Tate rematch is that she is vulnerable in some areas, and is still very beatable. A fighter as skilled and tough as McMann easily has the goods to pull off the upset here. We haven’t really seen anyone take the fight to Rousey, as most opponents are wary of Rousey’s judo and takedown attempts. McMann may do just that, relying on her strong wrestling and grappling base to get her out of trouble.

We’ll see some striking in a feeling out process, and although there was some talk about going for a KO win, neither fighter has the striking prowess of someone like Cris Cyborg. This one is almost certainly going to be determined when they lock horns.

Key to Victory: Who can earn the takedowns and maintain top control?

If Rousey puts McMann in a disadvantageous position, meaning if she even comes close to sniffing a potential armbar, you can probably put this one in the books. Rousey is absolutely uncanny in seeking out, setting up, and executing armbars. Just when you think she can’t possibly beat this next opponent by armbar, she does it yet again. Eight in a row. Eleven if you count her amateur fights. If Rousey gets top position on McMann, McMann has to find a way to reverse the position, escape, or hold onto her and keep her in a death grip until the ref stands them up. She cannot afford to let Rousey dictate her game plan there. Every one has trained to prepare for Rousey’s armbar, and it hasn’t made a difference. It won’t matter how much McMann has trained, she just has to avoid those positions that leave the potential for an armbar.

The opposite side is Rousey can’t let McMann get and maintain top control. We haven’t seen Rousey in a lot of bad spots in fights before, mainly because her judo usually dictates fights, but McMann is a different animal. If McMann could lay down some serious ground and pound, it would push Rousey to a place she’s never been before. We’ve seen some female fighters look mauled after some fights, but we haven’t seen Rousey touched up like that before. McMann has to lay the smack down from top control and take some of the wind out of Rousey’s sails, and then it’s anybody’s ball game.

Why It Matters – Undefeated and UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion. The winner leaves with both of those titles. For Rousey, it’s her third title defense. She was pushed in her last fight, but she stepped it up and dominated a very good fighter in Miesha Tate. When it’s all said and done, we may be looking at the most dominant female fighter of all time in the making here. Rousey isn’t exactly a one trick pony, obviously her judo is very good, but she is also skilled in the clinch and sets up her armbars in a variety of ways. It’s not easy to just nail an armbar on someone, and it’s even harder when your opponent knows what you want to do. Yet she still makes it happen. That takes an elite level of skill and ability. She could definitely use a KO finish at some point in her career, just for the sake of variety, but a win is a win and if she keeps this up, there will be few legitimate challengers for her to face. She’s on her way to clearing out the division as it is, with wins over Tate and Carmouche, and there may be two or three other fighters other than McMann that warrant a title shot. Rousey clearly wants to be great, and she has to beat McMann to reach higher plateaus.

As stated, McMann is being slept on here. Severely slept on. Probably because she only has one fight in the UFC, and that fight was almost a year ago. Not many are giving her a chance here, hell, not many are even aware that Rousey is fighting this weekend. McMann has a chance to do the unthinkable and what should be scary for Rousey is that McMann has the skillset to do it. She can be the one to hand Rousey her first loss, to put an end to Rousey’s win streak and armbar tally, to take the women’s bantamweight championship. McMann is an Olympic medalist, just like Rousey. She clearly has the athleticism, the drive, the will and ability to succeed at the highest levels. It would be foolish to count her out, but Rousey seems to be unstoppable when she is in the Octagon. It might be closer than her other fights, but it will likely have the same outcome.

Prediction – Rousey

Dan is a new addition to the InsideFights team. When not teaching at the local college during his day job, he likes to ride his fixed gear bicycle around town. Given the choice, he'd rather bike than drive any day (ride on!). He also enjoys trying new craft beers and vegetarian/vegan foods, playing guitar, writing fiction and of course, catching up on all things MMA. Dan currently lives in Los Angeles with his awesome wife.