Last September, the boxing world was at its most “snarky” in the weeks leading up to and following the first fight between Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr. (47-1-1) and Bryan Vera (23-7). Chavez was coming off of his first career defeat. While that loss was to the recognized middleweight champion of the world and a top pound for pound fighter, Sergio Martinez, fans and experts were appalled by Chavez’ cavalier approach to training. In fact, “cavalier” may be too soft of a word as he refused to go to the gym to train with five time trainer of the year, Freddie Roach, was seen on HBO’s “24/7″ waking up late and eating cereal in his underwear and was using marijuana which he tested positive for after the bout. Chavez’ terrible training habits showed in the fight as he was dominated for 11 rounds before almost pulling off a miracle in the 12th round. The aftermath of the fight involved Chavez getting suspended for a year (it was his second time testing positive for illegal substances), jettisoning Roach as trainer and being photographed well over his fighting weight.
With all that mind, the boxing community was not happy that Chavez was being paid handsomely by HBO to return on its airwaves in a fight against Vera who was seen as a smaller journeyman. But this had come to be expected for the “Son of the Legend” as the offspring of the great Julio Cesar Chavez is a superstar in Mexico and does great television ratings on HBO. To make matters worse, Chavez made a mockery of the bout by not being close to the contracted super middleweight limit of 168 pounds which forced the promoters to basically rewrite the contract less than a week before the fight. People seemed to be happy that Vera, normally fighting as a middleweight on ESPN2, was getting paid but there was concern for his safety as he put in the work to make the weight only to face a cruiserweight on fight night. All that was thrust aside during fight night when Vera outworked and out-landed a lethargic Chavez. Although Chavez hurt Vera on two or three occassions, his offense was few and far between and most observers felt that Vera won. Most, of course, did not mean the three official judges.
Thus, we now have the rematch. It will air on HBO Saturday night but instead of taking place before a half-empty Home Depot Center in Carson, California, the fight will originate from the Alamodome in San Antonio, Texas. While that venue was filled with 40,000 plus for a Canelo Alvarez fight last year, Top Rank promoter Bob Arum has reportedly let it be known that ticket sales for Chavez-Vera II are not robust. The other interesting part about the location is that Vera is a lifelong Texan but the Mexican-American population of San Antonio figures to support Chavez. Further, Texas is notorious for horrible referees (notably Laurence Cole, the son of the head of the Texas commission, who figures to draw this bout as well) and incompetent judges who tend to favor the house fighter.
Obviously, the house fighter here is Chavez. He is the one who can draw money and for whom a future big fight seems inevitable should he get past Vera. Before Carl Froch agreed to a much-anticipated rematch with George Groves, there was talk of a Froch-Chavez super middleweight title bout headling in Las Vegas and on pay per view. This week, Arum has said that he has been negotiating a July fight for Chavez with Gennady Golovkin. The motivation of a big fight and the aid of friendly jurisdiction, not to mention clear advantages in size, punching power and boxing technique, have Chavez listed by Bovada as a -500 favorite. If you are looking for a Vera upset at +350, the hope is that Chavez either depletes himself by making the 168 pound limit (in order to avoid a $250,000 payment to Vera) or has completely blown off training again (a good hope considering Chavez hired top trainer Robert Garcia and then never trained with him). Keep in mind though, you also need Vera to perform as well as he did in September. The same Vera who was knocked out in two rounds by Jaidon Codrington, who was outpointed by Craig McEwan, was thoroughly outboxed by Andy Lee in their rematch and lost to someone named Isaac Rodrigues. The odds are long for a reason… Chavez is the pick.
The opening bout on HBO is fascinating. It features WBO featherweight titlist Orlando Salido (40-12-2) defending against two time Olympic Gold Medalist Vasyl Lomanchenko (1-0). That is not a misprint; a 54 fight veteran and three-time world titlist is fighting a someone in his second professional fight… for a world title… on HBO! Lomanchenko though is no ordinary one fight kid. He is 26 years old and reportedly had a 396-1 amateur record (of course, the one loss was avenged twice). The oddsmakers agree he is something else and Bovada has him as a -600 favorite. Lomanchenko is most certainly the pick. However, getting +400 on Salido is a great price for a veteran who is known to wear fighters down late in fights. That is a very valuable asset considering Lomanchenko has never been past four rounds. Salido though, looked horrible against Mikey Garcia last year when he was dropped four times and has openly complained about his problems making 126 pounds. It has the makings of a recipe for disaster against the more technically skilled, bigger and harder punching Lomanchenko.
Aside from HBO’s card, two big title fights are happening on Saturday in Europe but will be available for viewing in the US. From Germany, Robert Stieglitz (46-3) defends his WBO super middleweight title against former middleweight and super middleweight titlist Arthur Abraham (38-4). The fight can be seen on ESPN3.com. This will be the third time these fighters are meeting. Abraham won a controversial decision in the first fight while Stieglitz stopped Abraham in their second meeting. In addition to having the edge of winning the most recent fight, Stieglitz seems to be more consistent while Abraham has been in a downward spiral since the Super Six Tournament. Bovada will give -275 so… Stieglitz is the pick.
In Scotland, hometown hero Ricky Burns (36-2-1) defends his WBO lightweight title against Omaha, Nebraska’s Terrence Crawford (22-0). Burns has looked awful in his last two fights. Jose Gonzalez had won seven of eight rounds before retiring due to an injury. Then, Burns was beaten up and dropped by Ray Beltran which was good enough for the judges in Scotland to award him a draw. Now he faces Crawford, a skilled defensive fighter who enjoys significant edges in size and speed. So much so that Bovada lists Crawford at -285. Now is not the time to be cute and look for a hometown decision to get an upset payout… Crawford is the pick.
Author’s Record for the Year: 0-0 (Because of a new addition to my family, I was not able to write earlier this year. Sometimes, the bets you don’t make are the best ones though. I probably would have taken some upset picks with Lucian Bute over Jean Pascal, Dierry Jean over Lamont Peterson and Gabriel Rosado over Jermell Charlo while not pulling the trigger on Luis Collazo over Victor Ortiz. That is four losses my new daughter helped me avoid!)
Author’s 2013 Record: 70-24-6 (It seems like a million years ago but I ended the year 2-2 by stupidly taking some fighter no one ever heard of to upset Bebuit Shumenov and then not anticipating Marcos Maidana’s fantastic and Mayweather-getting upset over Adrien Broner).
