The UFC returns with their second full fight card on UFC Fight Pass as the Octagon makes its way back to China early Saturday morning. It will also feature the finals of The Ultimate Fighter: China as UFC Fight Night: Kim vs. Hathaway takes place on Saturday, March 1 from the CotaiArena at The Venetian in Cotai, Macau in China. The event begins airing at 5:45 AM eastern time with the prelims all the way through the main card, but like all events airing on UFC Fight Pass, it will be available for all day viewing. Headlining the fight card will be a five-round welterweight bout as Dong Hyun Kim will take on John Hathaway. It will also feature the finals of TUF: China in the welterweight division, though the finals in the featherweight division was postponed to a future event as injuries took it off the card.
This card will have a mix of veterans known to the UFC audience as well as local talent who are making their UFC debuts, which will be customary to the full UFC Fight Pass events. And while every fight will air consecutively on UFC Fight Pass, it is broken down into a main card and a preliminary card. With that being the case, we will be breaking down the event in two parts, so let’s take a look at the night’s main card.
Welterweights (Five-Round Main Event)
Dong Hyun Kim (18-2-1 (1), 9-2 (1) UFC) vs. John Hathaway (17-1, 7-1 UFC)
The five-round main event will feature two big welterweights each on three-fight win streaks as Dong Hyun Kim and John Hathaway will finally square off after having a previously scheduled bout against each other cancelled several years ago. Kim and Hathaway will both enter the fight riding three-fight win streaks, and they have just three losses combined in 20 appearances inside the Octagon. Kim is coming off his first knockout win since 2008 in his last bout when he knocked out Erick Silva at UFC Fight Night 29 in October. That win also scored Kim his first post-fight bonus in the UFC, and it followed back-to-back decision wins over Siyar Bahadurzada and Paulo Thiago. Those three wins have put Kim back into the contender hunt after a stretch where he won just one of three fights. Hathaway has won three straight as well after suffering the only loss to his career to Mike Pyle at UFC 120 in October 2010. Coincidentially, Pyle replaced Kim in that bout to fight Hathaway, and it ended Hathaway’s perfect 14-0 record he compiled to start his career. Hathaway has since scored decision wins over Kris McCray, Pascal Krauss and John Maguire to get himself back on track, but he hasn’t scored a stoppage win since his UFC debut in January 2009. It will be the first main event, and first five-round bout, for both men since joining the UFC roster.
Hathaway is going to need to shake off any Octagon rust he may have as he will be fighting for the first time since September 2012 as injuries have kept him out of action. Kim has fought three times since Hathaway last fought, and he has shown some solid improvement. Kim showed he does have some power against Erick Silva, but Hathaway has a rock solid chin, so Kim should look to use his excellent judo skills to control the fight. Hathaway was outgrappled in his loss to Pyle, but he has showcased some good ability against decent-to-solid wrestlers. Hathaway likes to keep fights at a distance, and while he has a reach disadvantage, he will need to keep Kim away from being able to get in range for tie-ups as Kim will look for the judo takedowns from the clinch. Kim was wild in his striking against Silva, but Silva was unable to capitalize on it and paid when he tried. Hathaway is a little more patient on his feet, and he will be looking to counter Kim if he gets wild with his strikes. Kim is a big welterweight and will have the size advantage, and he likes to constantly pressure his opponents. Hathaway is a more patient and tactical fighter, and that makes Kim a tough opponent. Both men are tough to finish, but Kim is the one who can be finished. However, Hathaway hasn’t finished anyone in a long time, and he has the rust to shake off. This likely goes the full 25 minutes, and that favors Kim.
Prediction: Kim
Welterweights (TUF: China Welterweight Finals)
Sai Wang (6-4-1, 0-0 UFC) vs. Lipeng Zhang (6-7-1, 0-0 UFC)
If there was one thing fans could criticize the first season of The Ultimate Fighter: China on, it is the fact that a lot of the talent on the show didn’t have a lot of experience. Sai Wang and Lipeng Zhang were two of the more experienced fighters on the show, with both competing in more than ten professional bouts. That says a lot considering a lot of their competition on the show had just a handful of professional fights. Zhang entered the show having lost his last two fights, but he won both of his fights on the show by submission to make it to the finals. He is young at just 23-years-old, and he has talent, but there are a lot of things he needs to work on if he is going to compete at a decent level in the UFC. Wang is the more talented of the two, and he came on to the show having won two of his last three fights. He scored a knockout and a submission win during the welterweight tournament to advance to the finals, where he will look to win for the seventh time in his career. All six of his professional wins have come by stoppage, with four by knockout and two by submission.
This fight favors Wang, who is the better fighter on the feet of the two. Zhang is more of a counter-puncher, and he is quite tentative on his feet. Wang likes to kick and will mix in takedowns with his striking, so Zhang needs to show good takedown defense. Wang is decent on the mat, and that is where Zhang will run into trouble. Zhang has seven losses in his career, and five of them have come by submission. Wang does give up position easily, and Zhang is good in transitions and scrambles, and he has decent ground-and-pound. Wang needs to maintain composure on the ground and make sure this fight stays on the feet as he will pick Zhang apart on the feet. His striking will just be too much for Zhang to handle. Wang is the more aggressive fighter on the feet and Zhang will be in over his head. Wang was the favorite on the show, and for a good reason- he has the most talent at welterweight of the cast. He takes this fight.
Prediction: Wang
Heavyweights
Matt Mitrione (6-3, 6-3 UFC) vs. Shawn Jordan (15-5, 3-2 UFC)
Matt Mitrione and Shawn Jordan meet in a heavyweight bout as both look to get back on track from recent struggles and maintain relevancy in the UFC’s heavyweight division. After starting his career with a perfect 5-0 record, Mitrione has lost three of his last four fights and desperately needs to get back into the win column if he is going to stay on the UFC roster. He has just one win since June 2011, and some injury issues and a brief suspension have limited him to just three fights over the last two years. Despite his inexperience, five of his six wins have come by stoppage, and his losses have come to stiff competition. Jordan is looking to rebound from a 93-second knockout loss suffered to Gabriel Gonzaga at UFC 166 in October. That ended Jordan’s two-fight win streak, which came by way of knockout wins over Mike Russow and Pat Barry. Jordan has shown plenty of knockout power in his career as eleven of his fifteen wins have come that way, and he has recently switched up training camps to improve his standing. Both men are former football players, with Mitrione briefly spending time in the NFL, and both have made a solid transition to mixed martial arts.
Both men prefer to keep the fight standing and Mitrione is going to be looking to utilize his six-and-a-half inch reach advantage to keep Jordan at a distance. That would be wise, too, as Jordan works best with his punches in close range. Jordan has solid power, especially inside the pocket, so Mitrione will be needing to use leg kicks to soften Jordan up and keep him at a distance. Mitrione is more technical on his feet, and while his jaw has been rocked lately and can be considered questionable, he does have his own knockout power, and Jordan has shown he can be knocked out. Jordan may be best suited in utilizing a takedown game if he gets in close range as his wrestling ability is much stronger than Mitrione’s, and Mitrione has very questionable, almost non-existent, submission defense. Jordan’s best approach is to make this a battle on the ground as Mitrione’s ability and range on the feet will give him the win upright. All of that, along with Mitrione’s reach and underrated power, will give Mitrione the win as he gets back on track.
Prediction: Mitrione
Featherweights
Hatsu Hioki (26-7-2, 2-3 UFC) vs. Ivan Menjivar (25-11, 4-4 UFC)
An interesting featherweight bout opens the main card as Hatsu Hioki looks to break a three-fight losing streak when he welcomes Ivan Menjivar back to 145 pounds. Hioki came into the UFC with a lot of hype as a future title challenger and was headed to a title shot following wins over George Roop and Bart Palaszewski in his first two UFC bouts. However, he elected to forego a title shot and get more ready for it, and he has suffered since, losing decisions to Ricardo Lamas, Clay Guida and Darren Elkins to put his back against the wall. He has shown a lack of consistency and not much sense of urgency in those bouts, and perhaps fighting closer to home again brings him the motivation needed to recharge his run to a title shot. Menjivar has been fighting as a bantamweight since returning to the UFC, and he started off with good results, winning his first three UFC 135-pound fights. He won all three in three different ways- a knockout of Charlie Valencia, a decision over Nick Pace and a submission over John Albert. However, he too finds himself with his back against the wall after losing three of his last four fights. He is coming off a decision loss to Wilson Reis at UFC 165 in September.
Hioki hasn’t looked the same since coming to the UFC as he did early in his career, and perhaps the adjustment to fighting inside the Octagon or against tougher competition has caught up to him. Menjivar is a solid opponent, but he will be giving up a lot in moving up a weight division to face a bigger opponent. Hioki will have a good size and length advantage over Menjivar, so Menjivar will need to use his complete striking arsenal to attack Hioki. Hioki has struggled against the wrestlers he has fought in the UFC, and while Menjivar lacks the wrestling skill of Hioki’s past foes, he does have an aggressive submission game. Hioki has a solid submission game as well, but that has yet to really shown off in the UFC. These men have a combined 22 wins by submission, so a ground fight will look for both to create transitions to dominant positions. Hioki likes to use his jab to control the distance, and Menjivar is going to have trouble getting inside that nine-inch reach edge Hioki has. Menjivar needs to get flashy with his punches and kicks, but getting inside will allow Hioki to work in the clinch, where he is strong. Menjivar may hit Hioki, but Hioki will apply a methodical approach and fight for the win. Hioki takes a decision.
Prediction: Hioki
