It certainly is not often that you get a pay per view main event fight featuring two fighters coming off of decisive losses. That is exactly what the main event of this Saturday’s Showtime Pay Per View card is. The two fighters in this case are Mexican junior middleweights Saul “Canelo” Alvarez (42-1-1) and Alfredo Angulo (22-3).
Alvarez, of course, is the star here and the reason the bout is on pay per view. Besides his large fanbase and wild popularity with Mexicans and Mexican-Americans, he is a former WBC, WBA and Ring Magazine junior middleweight titlist who is coming off his first loss. That loss was officially a split decision to the number one pound for pound fighter in the world, Floyd Mayweather, although anyone not named CJ Ross who saw the bout would tell you it was a Mayweather shut out. Canelo seeks to shrug off that loss and continue on his path to superstardom and future titles. Indeed, before the Mayweather fight, that was exactly what Canelo was doing. He easily dismissed smaller (Lovemore N’Dou, Josesito Lopez, Alfonso Gomez), past their prime (Carlos Baldomir, Shane Mosley, Kermit Citron) and less skilled (Ryan Rhodes, Matthew Hatton, Luciano Cuello) before proving himself to be a world class fighter by knocking down and winning a close decision over tricky southpaw boxer Austin Trout.
Angulo will present a much different challenge for Canelo than defensive stylists such as Trout and Mayweather. He is a large junior middleweight who has a high volume pressure fighting style combined with excellent punching power in both hands. Angulo has used that style to score notable stoppages over Andrey Tsurkan, Gabriel Rosado, Joel Julio and Joachim Alcine. Even in his three losses, Angulo was able to impose his style on those foes that beat him: Cintron won a 12 round decision but was running and holding a weight-drained Angulo; the Mexican dropped James Kirkland and almost knocked him out more than once before being stopped in the sixth round of a hellacious war; and Angulo dropped Erislandy Lara twice before retiring because he believed he had an injury to his orbital bone. In addition to heavy hands and a pressure style, Angulo is an underrated boxing tactician due to his amateur experience as a Mexican Olympian and his work with notable trainers such as Nacho Berstain and his current chief second, Virgil Hunter.
On the flipside, Angulo has has long stretches of inactivity caused by promotional issues and, most notably, immigration issues. Angulo was out of the ring for one year following the Alcine win, one year following the Kirkland loss and his current period of inactivity is approximately eight months. Moreover, while he is only 31 years old, there are a lot of miles on those tires. In particular, Angulo took a lot of punishment in grueling fights against Richard Gutierrez, Kirkland and Lara. There is certainly concern about Angulo’s ability to withstand punishment, particularly to his left eye which was massively swollen in the Lara bout, at this point in his career. Another concern is that since his days as an amateur in 2002, Angulo has been cutting weight to make 154 pounds for fights. For the Lara fight, Angulo weighed in a half a pound under the junior middleweight division limit and then was 20 pounds heavier during the fight. At this stage of his career, it has to be considered that making 154 pounds is damaging Angulo.
Canelo, on the other hand, is comfortable at the weight as he easily made the 152 pound catch weight for his September showdown with Mayweather. He is also shown versatility to his style: originally, Canelo was a seek and destroy heavy handed fighter with a great body attack but he has shown other dimensions recently such as a shoulder roll, counter punching and good movement. Angulo has lost to both heavy handed pressure fighters and boxers. While Canelo is not the quickest fighter in the world, neither is Angulo so it can be assumed that Angulo is not like the speedy boxers (Mayweather and Trout) who troubled Canelo.
Many experts have been writing that they think that Angulo has enough in the tank to give Canelo big time problems. That said, none of them are on record as picking Angulo and the oddsmakers have taken that to heart and installed Angulo as a significant underdog (www.bovada.lv has Canelo at -700 while you can get +450 on Angulo). The bottom line is that Canelo is too young, too fresh and too versatile while also having good power. He is also the “house fighter” who is expected to move forward as a pay per view industry himself. All of that makes this easy… Canelo is the pick.
The undercard of this pay per view was originally thought to be very strong but this week it has basically imploded. First, a planned bout featuring exciting action fighter and WBC lightweight titlist Omar Figueroa defending his title against Canelo’s older brother, Ricardo Alvarez, was nixed when Figueroa suffered a hand injury. As a result, a fight between lightweights Jorge Linares (35-3) and Nihito Arakawa (24-3-1) has been moved from being aired on Showtime as a preview to the main pay per view card. This fight figures to be an excellent action fight as Linares is a gifted athlete and a fantastic offensive technician who has serious defensive flaws and questionable punch resistance. Arakawa is come forward brawler who is coming off of a fantastic action fight and a decision loss to Figueroa. Bovada lists Linares as just as big a favorite as Canelo. Given his chin issues, take a chance on the longshot here… Arakawa is the pick.
On Thursday, we learned that a junior middleweight title fight between IBF titlist Carlos Molina (22-5-2) and Jermall Charlo (17-0) is in serious jeopardy of being pulled from the pay per view because Molina has been arrested due to an outstanding warrant for failing to register as a sex offender based on a 2002 conviction for a sexual assault of a child. While the card’s promoter Richard Schaefer of Golden Boy Promotions has indicated that he expects Molina to be released in time for the weigh-in and thus allowing the fight to go forward, Molina remained in jail at press time because when he tried to post bond, an immigration hold was placed on him. Originally, the vastly more experienced, cagey and tough Molina was the pick. Now, forget it. He has spent at least two days in jail and that cannot be helpful for a fighter’s focus or with attempting to make weight. Bovada lists Charlo as a 2-1 favorite and as an Al Haymon fighter, he could be in line for a big payday against Canelo should he win the title… Charlo is the pick.
If Molina-Charlo does not go forward, Ricardo Alvarez’ (23-2-3) bout against late-replacement Sergio Thompson (28-3) of Mexico will take its place. No odds are available but Ricardo is simply not a high level fighter and is only on the card because of his last name. Thompson, meanwhile, has knocked out Linares and was a close loser in a recent challenge for a world title. Thompson is the pick.
The only constant on the pay per view undercard has been the co-feature which will showcase two model professionals. In that bout, two division titlist and rising star Leo Santa Cruz (26-0) will defend his WBC super bantamweight title against former unified and three time 115 pound titlist Cristian Mijares (49-7-2). While Mijares is only 32, he has been a professional for 14 years and has fought numerous world class fighters and champions. He has notable victories of Jorge Arce, Alexander Munoz, Jose Navarro and Rafael Marquez and losses to Vic Darchinyan, Nehomar Cermeno and Victor Terrazas. The last loss to Terrazas is notable because it was Terrazas whom Santa Cruz bludgeoned for three rounds to capture the 122 pound title. Mijares only lost by split decision and his great boxing skills have some thinking upset. Hogwash. Santa Cruz is a body punching and pressure fighting machine who is bigger. At this point, he seems unstoppable and it will take a highly skilled and exceptionally fast young fighter with fresh legs to beat El Terremoto. Mijares most likely does not have those fresh legs at 32 and after 58 professional fights. Santa Cruz is listed by Bovada as a massive favorite, -1200, for a good reason… Santa Cruz is the pick.
Author’s Record for 2014: 2-2 (Last week I was done in by two close decisions, one being Vasyl Lomanchenko’s split-decision loss to Orlando Salido [which I personally scored a draw and could have easily won if incompetent referee Laurence Cole deducted points for Salido’s numerous low blows] and Robert Steiglitz’ split-decision loss to Arthur Abraham [although Steiglitz was lucky to even get to a decision after being dropped in the 12th round]. My correct picks were Julio Cesar Chavez, Jr.’s decision victory over Bryan Vera and Terrance Crawford’s title winning effort over Ricky Burns.
Author’s Record for 2013: 70-24-6
