Fight Pass is here to say and the first fight from there that could produce a title contender is headlining a fairly solid British card. Alexander Gustafsson, fresh off a tight decision loss to UFC light heavyweight champion Jon Jones (a fight many thought he won), returns closer to his home of Sweden to take on Jimi Manuwa. Gustafsson is nearly guaranteed a title shot with a win, of course, as the UFC is key on Jones/Gustafsson 2. An upset here and the whole division could be in a profound sense of turmoil after Jones/Teixiera.
UFC Fight Night 38: Gustafsson vs. Manuwa
O2 Arena, London, England on Saturday afternoon
Preliminary card starts at 11:30pm CST and the four-fight main card starts on Fight Pass at 2 p.m. CST
Alexander Gustafsson vs. Jimi Manuwa
Gustafsson has quietly improved his game to a profound degree since he was dominated on the ground by Phil Davis. Joining Alliance MMA to work on his ground game, everyone in his camp raves about how good his grappling game has improved since he started working with Mark Munoz, Davis, Chael Sonnen, et al. The big Swede even broke Jon Jones’s perfect takedown defense percentage, something we all expected either Rashad Evans or Daniel Cormier to eventually do. And if he wins my guess is he’ll do it on the ground.
Manuwa isn’t awful on the ground … he’s just not good enough to be in the elite category of fighters with that ground game. He hits hard and has good striking, which might be good enough to notch the upset if Gustafsson decides to forego the ground game, but Gustafsson shocked a lot of people with his clinch work against Jon Jones and his takedowns come from there.
Gustafsson has a very similar game to Dominick Cruz standing, using movement and counters, and that’ll be a big key to this fight. If he can avoid getting tagged and land en masse he’ll cruise to a win, most likely notching a finish by the third. He’s had a tendency to get hit, and hit hard. He did lose the first to Matt Hamill because of it and if Manuwa can land some big shots early this could be an interesting fight to score. Gustafsson gassed hard at the end of the Jones fight and if Manuwa can make him do the same we could see an upset.
Prediction – Gustafsson via TKO, round 3
Melvin Guillard vs. Michael Johnson
These guys are at different points of the same career. Both are exceptionally athletic and explosive but prone to mental lapses and shoddy performances at inopportune times. At some points both of these guys look like the world champions they have been pegged to become by many analysts. At others … well … they look like they just didn’t show up to work that day.
Guillard is at the point in his career where it’s either put up or shut up. He’s 30 and has spent nearly a decade in the UFC, having been a cast member of the second season of “The Ultimate Fighter.” It’s crazy to think he’s been around that long but he made his debut on the TUF Finale against Marcus Davis at welterweight. Guillard has been talked about as having so much potential, and to potentially be this elite fighter, that it’s about that point in his career that his insanely high ceiling might be something he never hits. When you watch Guillard fighting you can see how good he should be; he has that same “it” factor that elite fighters have.
Who Guillard should be, and who he actually is, are two different things though. He’s been expected to be a world champion for so long, and flashed that potential so often, that the time for him to clear that final hurdle is now. Johnson’s career has mirrored Guillard’s in a lot of ways; you can see how good he will wind up becoming in a couple of years. Johnson also has this tendency to vary from being this badass killer to a guy who’s just there in fights, as well. He looked like a world champion in the waiting against Joe Lauzon, dominating him from start to finish, and beat the brakes off of Gleison Tibau. That same guy didn’t show up against Myles Jury, who had his way with Johnson for the most part, and made him look like an overrated prospect going up against a properly rated one.
Guillard looked great against Ross Pearson and I think he might have it together for this one. Johnson has looked like a fighter en route to a title shot in his past couple fights, as well, so we could be looking at a fight of the year contender with this one. I like Guillard in this … but not by much.
Prediction – Guillard by decision
Brad Pickett vs. Neil Seery
Seery is making his promotional debut and has been a staple of the UK scene for some time. The problem is that he’s 34 and if he’d been a great talent he probably would have found his way to the UFC outside of being a short notice replacement much sooner. His level of competition isn’t spectacular, either, but if he can get the fight to the ground it could be interesting.
The problem is that he has to wade through punches to get there and I’m not sure he weathers the storm. Pickett gets tagged a lot but he delivers a massive shot in return and I think Seery goes out cold.
Prediction – Pickett by KO
Gunnar Nelson vs. Omari Akhmedov
Omari is a nice fighter but Nelson has too many ways to finish him. Akhmedov also got tagged a lot in his UFC debut and that’s become a trend in his fights, even before the UFC. Nelson is too skilled and while it could get interesting if this goes to the ground I think Nelson takes a fairly convincing decision.
Prediction – Nelson by decision
Undercard Predictions
Cyrille Diabate < Ilir Latifi
Luke Barnatt > Mats Nilsson
Brad Scott > Claudio Henrique da Silva
Igor Araujo > Danny Mitchell
Roland Delorme > Davey Grant
Louis Gaudinot > Phil Harris
