UFC Fight Night 39 marks the almost bi-weekly return of the UFC to Brazil, headlined of course by legends Shogun Rua and Dan Henderson in a rematch of their epic five round war. The co-main event features two TUF alum middleweights at very different points in their careers. TUF Brazil 1 winner Cezar Ferreira, coming off of a split decision victory over Daniel Sarafian, meets veteran CB Dollaway, who is himself coming off of a split decision loss to Tim Boetsch.
Fighter Summary
C.B. Dollaway (13-5 overall, 7-5 UFC)
Strengths: Wrestling, toughing out fights
Weaknesses: Not elite in anything, pacing/gas tank
Cezar Ferreira (7-2 overall, 3-0 UFC)
Strengths: Great BJJ, very capable striker
Weaknesses: Still a bit raw, inexperienced
Fight Breakdown – Don’t be surprised to see this one stay entirely on the feet. Both of these guys are capable on the ground, but Ferreira has good jiu jitsu and Dollaway is no slouch in that department either. Neither may be willing to go there until the other shows a clear advantage in the stand-up.
Dollaway has some good power in his hands, as he showed in his fight against Daniel Sarafian, who is coincidentally the last guy Ferreira fought and defeated. Dollaway can easily hang with Ferreira on the feet, but he doesn’t quite have that one punch or kick KO power – at least not nearly as much as Ferreira does. “Mutante” has some explosive striking capabilities, meaning he can throw a punch or kick that will either put a guy out cold or lead to a quick finish. He showed that during his TUF stint. He’s not likely to catch and finish someone as tested as Dollaway, but he can separate himself by picking Dollaway apart all night.
If that happens, expect Dollaway to try and take it to the ground in a hurry. He’ll grind Ferreira up against the cage and do his best to drag Ferreira down and soften him up with clinch and ground strikes. Ferreira has to show solid takedown defense, as Dollaway will arguably be his stiffest test to date. Ferreira can do a lot off of his back, but the more time he spends there, the more likely he is to lose. Thelast thing he wants is to build momentum by winning the stand up exchanges, then see it come crashing to a halt because of a Dollaway takedown and ground and pound.
So look for Mutante to keep his distance and use his quickness to his advantage. He should try to set up some homerun strikes with feints and leg kicks, to keep Dollaway guessing and miscalculating. The longer he stays in the clinch with Dollaway, the more the fight favors Dollaway. He has to break from those clinches as soon as possible and he definitely cannot let Dollaway take his back at any point in the fight. C.B. will cling to him like a dog on a bone and he’ll be content to do that no matter how much fans boo or how much he actually advances position.
Key to Victory: Can Dollaway pace himself?
We’ve seen both of these guys go the distance. Dollaway, especially when he smells a finish, goes for it and goes hard. When he doesn’t get it, he ends up in big trouble later on. That would be disastrous against a fighter like Mutante. Neither guy can afford to fight out of control, and it will be pivotal for Dollaway to pace himself for a three round fight. If he can manage that, he has a chance of winning. Gassing himself out in the first or second going for a potential finish, and not earning it, would probably spell his doom.
Why It Matters – At this point, we’ve probably seen the best Dollaway has to offer. He isn’t likely to make any significant leaps and bounds in the UFC. At 7-5 in the UFC, we’ve pretty much seen his ceiling. It’s his losses that say more than anything. Tom Lawlor, Mark Munoz, Tim Boetsch….as soon as he gets a big step up in competition, he just can’t hang. He’s more of a veteran test for up and coming guys, to see if they have what it takes to really get up in the division. If a fighter can handle Dollaway, and handle him easily, then he’s ready to make a move towards the top 15-10 of the division.
That’s essentially where Mutante comes in. Unlike Dollaway, Mutante is still relatively new to the UFC and he remains undefeated at 3-0. He won TUF Brazil 1, and has shown some serious potential, especially in his second UFC fight with that 47 second, guillotine finish of Thiago Santos. If he can get past Dollaway, you can bet he gets someone higher up the ladder. The results will be very different for both fighters with a win. Dollaway will validate his current status and remain relevant in the division, while Ferreira will improve his status and start to draw more attention as a 4-0 prospect. Dollaway is a tough test, but Ferreira will be skilled and diverse enough to overcome his veteran wiles.
Prediction – Ferreira
