This was the night of upsets at Ultimate Fight Night 38 as the main card featured a run of upsets dominating the card. It featured a ton of finishes, though, as this was a wild card that featured a ton of fun fights. It was odd for a Sunday night to see MMA, which could make for an interesting way to view the MMA calendar when the NFL is off the air if they did it on a regular basis. More people were talking about it on Twitter, it seems, and I’ll be curious to see the final viewership numbers when all is said and done.
Now it’s time to figure out who’s next among the most intriguing winners and losers.
Winners
Dan Henderson vs. Daniel Cormier – Cormier wants another fight before he gets a title shot and let’s be fair. Beating Patrick Cummins doesn’t earn you a title shot. Henderson’s right hand is a game changer and Cormier can’t wait for Jon Jones/Glover Teixiera/Alexander Gustafsson to work itself out. Cormier/Henderson as a Fox main event, for the right to face Jon Jones, makes a ton of sense. Henderson will want a title shot because he’s facing the end of his career sooner than later. He’s also a huge name and gets a huge check. No one outside of the Top 10 makes sense for him outside of Ryan Bader. The winner of Phil Davis/Rumble Johnson could be in this slot, too.
CB Dollaway vs. the winner of Rafael Natal/Ed Herman – Dollaway looked really impressive and is 3-1 in his last four. He could be 4-0, as many gave him the Boetsch fight, and 2-2 would be reasonable as well. It looks like he’s starting to put it together and become that Top 10 fighter he looked like he could become in his initial post TUF fights. But let’s be honest and say he also finished a prospect whose high ratings were rather dubious on a lot of levels. It was going to be a matter of time before his defensive deficiencies caught up with him. The winner of Natal/Herman is a nice finishing fight for him before he gets someone in the Top 10. Dollaway has been inconsistent and another win cements what we saw tonight. I saw Luke Rockhold, if he gets past Tim Boetsch, could make sense if you don’t think Dollaway needs another win before a Top 10 opponent.
Rony Jason vs. the winner of the winner of Max Hollaway/Andre Fili – Jason looked spectacular and I thought the finish was coming. Was it premature? Yeah … but I can make the argument that the finish was coming in the next minute or so. But it wasn’t the sort of win you can go “Rony should face someone near the Top 10″ with, either. Hollaway/Fili puts the winner in nearly the same spot. The best between these three would be ready for a crack at the Top 10.
Fabio Maldonado vs. Ovince St. Preux – Maldonado had a heck of a fight, going from being utterly dominated in the first round to rallying to grab the final two (and the win) with a body punching game that sucked the life out of Gian Villante. Maldondao right now is your perfect heat check guy for the light heavyweight division. He’s not good at MMA … but he’s so incredibly tough and just skilled enough that he’ll tell you how good a prospect or wannabe contender really is. OSP is need of a guy just like that right now, especially after choking out Nikita Krylov with a Von Flue choke.
Jussier Formiga vs. Brad Pickett – Pickett’s a popular choice for a title shot, with his win against “Mighty Mouse” years ago, but he’s not ready for that. Formiga was ranked the best flyweight in the world for some time before being brutalized by Joseph Benavidez in a title eliminator. You could justify Formiga for a title shot with a win against someone considered Top 10, especially after a dominant win over Scott Jorgensen, with a win over someone like Pickett. John Lineker could make sense, too. Flyweight is so wildly open that it’s a matter of getting Formiga one more win against a ranked opponent to put him into a title shot. A win here for Pickett and you can justify him in a title shot, as well.
Losers
Shogun Rua vs. the loser of Rumble Johnson vs. Phil Davis – Before Dan Henderson broke his face with a right uppercut Shogun Rua looked exceptional. He looked like he was going to take a dominant decision win over Henderson to avenge their first fight … and then he got caught. It happens. The loser of Johnson/Davis will be in a similar spot, one win away from being right back into the title picture. Ryan Bader makes sense in this slot, potentially, as well. Rua looked really good but Henderson has life altering power in that right hand.
Gian Villante vs. Patrick Cummins – Villante has a great pedigree, a tremendous athletic background and comes from a great camp. Yet he’s not quite the elite talent he should be at this point in his career. He’s starting to look like a typical UFC fighter who’s hyped as a “training partner” of someone who holds a UFC title belt more than anything else. Cummins wrote a check with his mouth that his body couldn’t cash against Daniel Cormier but he’s got a good enough athletic pedigree to warrant another fight. Villante is in “put up or shut up” mode with his ceiling.
Scott Jorgensen vs. John Lineker – Jorgensen has more wins at 135 and 125 than anyone in WEC/UFC history at this point. And yet he’s on the verge of getting cut because he’s getting blown out of the water at both weight classes against elite guys. He’s spoken of how the weight cut is easier on him now but another fight and another time he’s been choked out. He’s 2-5 in his last seven, both of those wins coming from guys no longer in the UFC. I wouldn’t be shocked if he gets released … but the quality of opponents he keeps getting is off the charts. And if he stays on he’s in a “loser leaves town” fight against someone who has at least one more MMA life than he does. Lineker would make for a good fit if Jorgensen stays at flyweight.
Steven Siler vs. the loser of Andre Fili/Max Hollaway – Silver’s ceiling is in focus right now. He’s probably going to peak as a Top 10 gatekeeper, a temperature check guy for rising prospects and wannabe contenders. Not a bad place to be if you can collect paychecks, etc, and Siler is over performing on every expectation we had coming in from TUF 14.
