It’s been a while since we’ve had a proper UFC event and Friday afternoon the UFC returns to Abu Dhabi for a Fight Pass event. Four years after one of the more controversial decisions in MMA history (Penn-Edgar 1), Phil Davis’s wrecking ball treatment of current title contender Alexander Gustafsson and Anderson Silva’s bemusing performance against Demian Maia the UAE is given a fairly substantial main card.
It’s a pretty solid Fight Pass card and this could be the final fight in the UFC for a number of guys. Check out my predictions below.
Ramsey Nijem vs. Beneil Dairiush
Nijem has achieved as much as he probably will in the UFC. The TUF 13 runnerup beats guys who are borderline guys in the UFC but loses to anyone able to break into the Top 10 (or get close to it). He’s a solid heat check guy; you can tell a lot about a prospect by how well they fare against him. You need these sorts of guys in a fight promotion; they serve as a real gauge early on and NIjem can probably spend years in this sort of role in the UFC.
Dairiush blew the doors off Charlie Brenneman not all that long ago and this is the right fight at the right time for him. Dairiush needs a good heat check guy to get us a better gauge of how good he could be. Lightweight’s loaded and he’s got plenty of time to develop, thus this kind of makes sense right now.
Nijem tends to get finished in losses, as well, so this could be a great momentum building moment for Dairiush.
Prediction – Dairiush via submission round 2
Ryan LaFlare vs. John Howard
This is a repeat of Nijem/Dairiush as you’ve got a good heat check caliber guy in Howard vs. another solid prospect looking to build some credibility in LaFlare. LaFlare looks like he could be a contender sooner than later, has that Ring of Combat pedigree and came into the UFC on a seven finish win streak. So far in the UFC he’s notched three decision wins against increasingly tough opponents and Howard is a great matchup for him right now.
Howard’s worked his way back into the UFC after a first run ended with him on a three fight losing streak and he’s won both fights he’s been given on his return, including up a weight class against Uriah Hall. Howard’s a good heat check guy for LaFlare right now, as he needs a good test but not quite at elite one.
Howard’s a tough out and I don’t think LaFlare finishes him … but I think he’s going to get out classed in this one. LaFlare’s ceiling looks to be fairly high and Howard’s just a guy at this point. I think Howard’s good enough to avoid getting finished but this should be fairly one sided.
Prediction – LaFlare by decision
Clay Guida vs. Tatsuya Kawajiri
With the cut of Jake Shields this week no one in the UFC is safe from the firing line. If you’re older, have a big salary and don’t have great fights regularly you have to keep winning or else. Guida’s at that place in his career where the slope is angling downwards. We’ve seen Clay’s best and he peaked, career wise, against Ben Henderson at the first UFC on Fox. After that he’s been equal combinations of boring and infuriating. He arguably beat Hatsu Hioki on the Johnson/Dodson undercard … and that’s been his only win since 2011. He’s fought sporadically and has had the worst fight of every card he’s been on consistently.
Throw in the fact that he’s 1-3 in his last four fights, including a savage TKO loss against Chad Mendes, and Guida’s on the downside of his career. A loss here and he’s probably out of the UFC (especially if he gets finished). He’s become a gatekeeper and there’s no one in the Top 10 you’d favor Guida against at this point right now. It kind of disappoints me because I remember watching Clay wrestle in high school (he wrestled a friend of mine at a dual meet) and remember his brother Jason as a high school wrestler as well. Guida’s 32 and lighter weight fighters on the whole tend to age faster than their counterparts at the top of the food chain.
Kawajiri is finally starting to put it together and looks like a natural featherweight contender. He’s 35 but he looks like he has one run left in him still. I can’t say the same of Guida.
Prediction – Kawajiri by decision
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Roy Nelson
“Big Nog” has done everything in MMA you could possible ever do. He held UFC and Pride gold, the only heavyweight to do so, and has fought everyone that matters. He is never going to be elite, or anywhere near it, but his time in the sun is over. Nogueira knows this is the twilight of his career, as well, and now is taking interesting fights. He coached TUF: Brazil against Fabricio Werdum, and lost to him via submission, and right now I think he’s trying to find a good exit. It probably should’ve happened after the Dave Herman fight, where he pulled off that beautiful armbar, but you never want to let go when you think you’ve got something in the tank still.
I think the Herman fight was the proper time and the Werdum fight exposed that he was done. He’s shopworn after a long career and doesn’t need to prove anything at this point. If there was an MMA Hall of Famer he’d be a guaranteed first ballot Hall of Fame candidate. And this is a terrible matchup for him; Nelson’s takedown defense isn’t great but it’s not awful either. Nogueira’s boxing is solid, especially for a heavyweight, but he lacks the movement to really exploit Nelson’s inability to cut the cage off. It’s also five rounds and I’m not sure either guy is going to be able to last that long, either. This is probably over quickly and violently.
This isn’t going to end well for Big Nog.
Prediction – Nelson via KO
