What a difference 22 months makes. In June 2012, when Manny Pacquiao (55-5-2) and Timothy Bradley (31-0) first met at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, Nevada, the fighters were in very different places then they are now. Pacquiao was the WBO welterweight titlist and either the number one or number two pound for pound fighter in the world. The Filipino Icon had gone unbeaten for over seven years and tore through the best opposition in boxing, including a close victory over his great rival Juan Manuel Marquez in their third fight. He was also tremendously popular and not only regularly sold out arenas such as the MGM Grand and packed stadiums such as Cowboy Stadium in Dallas, Texas, but also reached a million pay per view buys in many of his fights. On the other hand, Bradley was largely unknown to the general public. The Palm Springs native was known to hardcore fans for being the junior welterweight champion who had victories over Junior Witter, Kendall Holt, Lamont Peterson, Luis Abregu and Devon Alexander. These victories got Bradley numerous television appearances but his lack of knockout power and sometimes unexciting performances had him fighting in front of small crowds in venues ranging from a casino in his hometown to the Silverdome in Pontiac, Michigan. Additionally, Bradley was being labeled as a “ducker” due to his calling out of Amir Khan and then not agreeing to fight him in lieu of signing a promotional agreement with Top Rank for the chance at a mega-payday against Pacquiao, a fight not many gave him much of a chance to win.
Fast forward to this weekend and the fighters must feel that June, 2012 was decades ago. Bradley is now the WBO welterweight titlist who is widely regarded as a top-five pound for pound fighter due to his split-decision victory over Pacquiao. That decision however was widely labeled a robbery as most felt Bradley did not deserve the decision (HBO’s Harold Lederman and ESPN’s Dan Rafael scored the fight 119-109 for Pacquiao; your author scored it 116-112 for the “Pacman”; the only notable commentator that had Bradley winning was Brian Kenny). After the fight, along with being adamant that he won the fight, Bradley complained of broken feet or ankles which he said caused him to be less aggressive and not exciting. This led to intense fan and media criticism of “Desert Storm” and Bradley even revealed that he and his family received death threats. The only way he was able to overcome that was winning a hellacious war with Ruslan Provodnikov and outboxing Marquez. Bradley is now thought of highly by many as a terrific boxer and an action fighter. He is also being tabbed by more than a few experts to win the rematch.
The 2014 Pacquiao is no longer the “destroyer.” Following the loss to Bradley, he faced Marquez in a fourth bout where he was dropped once before being knocked out cold. The loss to his rival led to a year long layoff and then a fight in Macau, China against Brandon Rios. While that fight was attended well overseas, it did not perform as well on pay per view as past Pacquiao events. Now, many question whether Pacquiao has much longer left in the sport and reports from Las Vegas (by Steve Kim and others) indicate that this event is not selling that well. Indeed, the promoter of both fighters seems to be more focused on criticizing the venue than talking up the fight.
How this plays into the rematch is all a mystery. Bradley maintains that Pacquiao has lost his “fire” meaning that he is content to play it safe because he has become too caring due to his religious beliefs or because he is scared to end up face down on the canvas. Some suggest this is true while it may be that Bradley is simply hoping that it will motivate Pacquiao to be uber-agressive which would give “Desert Storm” ample counter-punching opportunities. On the flipside, Pacquiao and his trainer Freddie Roach maintain that Pacquiao is over his disastrous 2012 and has returned to his old destroyer ways as evidenced by his shutout victory over Rios.
The oddsmakers seem to think that Pacquiao is still the favorite but not by the high odds that were in place last time (Bovada lists Pacquiao as a -230, www.sportbet.com has him at -215 to win the rematch). That is probably based on the wide belief that the Filipino dominated Bradley the first time around. It also probably has something to do with Bradley showing vulnerability against Provodnikov and Marquez as he was hurt numerous times against those fighters, neither of whom is the puncher that Pacquiao is. Those odds probably also involve a line of thinking that the judges for this bout will try to “over-correct” their scores in favor of the Filipino congressman to make up for the incompetent scoring in the first fight. These are all viable reasons to pick Pacquiao.
That said, Bradley has all the momentum. He just defeated Pacquiao’s rival; he is the titlist; he has not lost as a professional; he knows he can overcome the most difficult of situations to come back and win the fight. Moreover, while he has faced difficulties, Bradley does not have the wear and tear that Pacquiao has had after so many hard fights. “Desert Storm” will also not have the foot and ankle injuries that hampered him in the first bout (because he will wear socks!). Most importantly to this author, there is just something about Bradley that makes him a winner: he is an honest fighter who recognizes his weaknesses but is supremely confident. In the words of the song he came out to for the Maquez fight, all he does is win. Let’s get that upset money… Bradley is the pick.
The undercard for this pay per view is less than scintillating to say the least. The co-feature is a lightweight bout between Ray Beltran (28-6-1) and Arash Usmanee (20-1-1). Beltran is the more experienced, versatile and larger fighter. Usmanee is coming off a stretch where he was saddled with a loss to Rances Barthelemy in a fight he probably won and got a draw against Argenis Mendez in a fight he probably lost. Beltran is no stranger to bad decisions (particularly, his losses to Luis Ramos and Shareef Bogere were controversial but it was his loss to Ricky Burns that was egregious) but he is on a roll with terrific performances against Hank Lundy, Ji-Hoon Kim and Burns in a WBO lightweight title bout. Beltran is about a 2-1 favorite (Sporbet says -185, Bovada says -200) and Usmanee took the fight on short notice… Beltran is the pick. The other fights on the card involve fighters that not a whole lot is known about but titles are at stake. In an interim WBA junior lightweight title fight, Bryan Vasquez (32-1) will defend against Jose Felix, Jr. (26-0-1). Bovada and Sportbet both list Felix as a -325 favorite. That seems like easy money here… Felix is the pick. The other televised bout featured Khabib Allakhverdiev (19-0) defending his WBA junior welterweight title against Jesse Vargas (23-0). Neither guy has much power and Vargas is known as a slick boxer. That said, the best memory most people will have of Vargas is him getting outworked by Josesito Lopez and being given a controversial decision win. Khabib, though not known, has wins over Nate Campbell, Kaizer Mabuza, Joan Guzman and Souleymane M’Baye, all better than any of the competition Vargas has faced. Khabib is the favorite (-280 on Sportbet) and his aggression should carry the day in Vegas. Khabib is the pick.
Author’s Record for the Year: 12-5 (My last set of picks involved me going 7-2 and one of my losses was picking Daniel Ponce de Leon over Juanma Lopez when I had originally picked Lopez and then changed my mind… remember, always go with your first impression. That is why I did not allow myself to be convinced to pick Pacquiao here).
Author’s Record for 2013: 70-24-6
