If this were any other card, this fight would be in a higher slot, but it just so happens Dustin Poirier vs. Akira Corassani is going down on the TUF Nations Finale. So we get a great fight to kick off the main card of what should be an entertaining card overall, headlined by the always polarizing Michael Bisping against Tim Kennedy.
Fighter Summary
Dustin Poirier (15-3 overall, 7-2 UFC)
Strengths: Good chin and gas tank, well rounded
Weaknesses: Has yet to make that jump into the elite
Akira Corassani (12-3 overall, 3-0 UFC)
Strengths: Decent striker, good takedown defense
Weaknesses: KO losses, lack of wins over notable opponents
Fight Breakdown – Let’s get one thing straight right off the bat: this is Dustin Poirier’s fight to win or lose. He’s got the advantage in terms of Octagon experience, he’s fought better opponents overall and he’s only lost to guys who have fought for titles or are title contenders currently. Corassani is a talented, skilled fighter who can easily pull off the upset here, but if both guys are 100% and fight to 100% of their abilities, Poirier wins ten times out of ten.
The question is: how? Poirier probably trained for this fight to keep it standing. Corassani has only three losses, but all by TKO. He still has some vulnerabilities in the stand up and though Poirier tends to the submissions, he is no slouch when it comes to striking. He recently pummeled Diego Brandao and beat him at his own game. Brandao is a fearsome puncher and loves to exchange with guys, and “The Diamond” finished him in just under one round. That’s not the kind of position Corassani wants to find himself in.
Corassani will have to be very careful in picking his spots and fight a smart fight. He should do a lot of wading in and out a la Lyoto Machida, and look to frustrate Poirier to try and bait him and make him impatient. Poirier is favored here and there will be a sense of urgency from him to put on a show and make a case for a title shot or title eliminator match up. That’s exactly what Corassani can use against him and turn this from a “wait for Poirier to turn it on” fight to a “Poirier looks gassed and desperate” kind of fight. If he can mix things up and time counters and takedowns well, he actually has a solid chance of earning the win here. He just has to pick his spots and not get involved in too many pocket exchanges. Letting Poirier control the cage more is okay, but letting Poirier dictate the pace and the rhythm of the fight would spell disaster.
So Poirier has to keep calm and let the fight develop, just as much as pushing the action. Poirier has a very entertaining style, and despite being only 25 years of age, he has a good amount of experience and has fought against very solid competition. The drive to get a big finish and win impressively cannot outweigh the need to put on a dominant performance and come out with the win. Corassani is a capable ground fighter and has the goods to sink in a submission, which is all the more reason for Poirier to keep his head level.
Key to Victory: Can Poirier maintain the distance?
As long as Poirier can keep Corassani from stifling him in clinches against the cage, he’s going to have the upper hand. Corassani absolutely has to find a way to get past Poirier’s offensive attacks and keep Poirier guessing and confused. He has to be able to seriously hurt and threaten Poirier in the stand up, and he won’t likely be able to do that as much as Poirier can do it to him. Look for Corassani to try and get things up close and personal and implement grappling just as much as striking. If Poirier can keep his distance, it won’t look good for Corassani.
Why It Matters – As stated before, this is Dustin Poirier’s fight to win or lose. Plain as that. Poirier isn’t that far away from a title shot. Cub Swanson may be the only guy in front of him, especially if Aldo remains champion. Poirier has to win here just to stay unblemished in his recent fights and he’s almost assured a title shot or a spot in a title eliminator – which he has stated he wants in a rematch against Cub Swanson. A loss would hurt. Not world ending, but Poirier isn’t as big a name as guys like Swanson, Frankie Edgar and Chad Mendes. He can beat any of them on a given night, but that won’t matter if he loses to Corassani. Corassani is a very, very winnable fight for him and the pressure will be on for Poirier to deliver.
Corassani has a huge opportunity here. He’s not even ranked in the top 15 and he gets a crack at the #6 guy in the division? A win here would literally catapult him up the division and get his name in the mix with some very talented fighters. He didn’t exactly win his last fight against Maximo Blanco by dominating him, but a win is a win and he has a date with “The Diamond”. Capitalizing would be huge and if Poirier underestimates him, Corassani could definitely pull off the upset. But look for Poirier to be on his “A” game when he’s this close to a title shot. He’s going to come out on a mission.
Prediction – Poirier
