The UFC returns to FOX with a stacked main card headlined by heavyweight title hopefuls Fabricio Werdum and Travis Browne. Browne is coming off an impressive upset finish over Josh Barnett, while Werdum, like Browne, has won his last three fights – most recently submitting Big Nog last year in Brazil.
Fighter Summary
Travis Browne (16-1 overall, 7-1 UFC)
Strengths: Sheer size, heart, power
Weaknesses: Gets in trouble spots
Fabricio Werdum (17-5 overall, 3-0 UFC)
Strengths: Jiu-jitsu and ever improving striking
Weaknesses: Age and wear and tear
Fight Breakdown – This one will probably end with someone tapping or the ref jumping in to stop a beating. Browne rarely has a fight go to decision. Out of 16 wins, 14 have come by KO or submission. He’s won his last three fights by KO in the first round. Similarly, Werdum has 14 of his 17 wins coming by way of submission or KO. With the power that these guys pack and the finishing ability they have, both on the feet, in the clinch and on the ground, we’re very likely going to see a stoppage. The only question is how.
Browne should do everything in his power to keep this one on the feet with Werdum. He has the size and reach to keep Werdum in his reach, while staying just out of harm’s way for the duration of the fight. And based on his recent fights, it looks like he also has the know-how and chin to hang as well. He had to bounce back hard in his fight against Overeem, and those crafty elbows he used to decimate Barnett while in a normally disadvantageous position were a thing of beauty. If Werdum wants to roll with Browne, he better find a way to get him down quickly and with a minimum of damage.
Look for Werdum to probe and get Browne turned against the cage. Simply shooting for a takedown against Browne may not be the most wise or effective strategy, but sneaking in to get his back against the cage would nullify a lot of Browne’s biggest weapons. If Werdum gets Browne’s back, it’s going to be a long night for Browne (if he manages to avoid getting subbed).
Browne has to utilize that size and power to keep Werdum hesitant. Browne has some great kicks, but he can’t get overconfident or too eager. Picking his spots, just enough to keep Werdum guessing, would be enough, but throwing caution to the wind and throwing kicks without maintaining balance and a defensive posture will give Werdum the openings he needs to close in and trip Browne up. The flip side is, Werdum can’t let Browne push him around the cage and start to get a rhythm in unloading strikes. Browne is a powerful striker and can put the hurt on anyone, so Werdum has to be smart in his defense and protect himself. The last thing he wants to do is get tagged, back up against the cage and go into turtle mode, then let Browne unload with strikes.
Key to Victory: Up close and dirty or striker’s delight?
This fight could very well be determined by how much time the guys spend fighting up close or from afar. There will probably be a correlation: the more they fight up close, the more the fight favors Werdum, while the more they fight from afar, the more it favors Browne. Of course there could be an exception like Browne landing some nasty elbows in a clinch, or Werdum out-quicking Browne and landing shots on the move at will. But for the most part, it’s going to be about who can implement their game plan and avoid the strengths of the other guy. Werdum is famous for his top-shelf BJJ and Browne for his power and striking, but neither guy is a slouch in any department. Browne should stay away from trying to out-BJJ a guy as skilled as Werdum, and that means keeping his feet and distance to keep it standing. Werdum might not want too much of Browne on the feet, so he’ll try to close the gap at opportune moments and sneak in whatever shots he can on the way in and out. Whoever can keep the fight where they want it will be skilled enough to win it there.
Why It Matters – Heavyweight gold. Werdum and Browne are ranked #2 and #3 respectively in the HW division. The winner gets a crack at Cain Velasquez. It will mark the first guy other than Junior Dos Santos and Bigfoot Silva to fight the champion in his last five fights and the division is desperate for a fresh matchup for the title.
Werdum’s window is closing. He’s 36 and on a nice streak, and a win over Browne puts him in the Octagon for a shot at the title. He needs this right now. A loss here wouldn’t be too disastrous as the other guys in the division aren’t quite deserving of a shot, but it would set him back for another fight or two at the least. Not what he needs at this point his career.
Browne is 16-1 in his career and he was already on his way to a title shot before falling to Bigfoot Silva. Many people would argue he’s deserving now after three in a row over guys like Overeem and Barnett, but Werdum has a case to make that’s just as compelling. So they’ll meet to decide who is the clear #1 contender. Both of these guys are capable, but Browne is just a little bit more dangerous overall and his recent tear makes him look like the guy to challenge Velasquez next.
Prediction – Browne
