Yoel Romero is indisputably the best wrestler in the UFC right now on credentials alone. An Olympic silver medal around his neck, and a win over the greatest American wrestler in NCAA history among others, leaves Romero with a pedigree on the mat that very few in MMA history have had. And yet when it comes to his MMA game as a whole he’s known for being taken by far inferior talent coupled with spectacularly explosive striking that has produced a number of finishes. In eight fights he has yet to see the judges’ scorecards, most recently coming from behind against Derek Brunson to score a spectacular TKO win.
Now he faces a fighter who has gone to decision in all but one of his fights inside the UFC in TUF alum Brad Tavares, he of the quiet five fight win streak in the middleweight division.
Fight Breakdown – You would think that Yoel Romero would eventually figure out that his explosiveness and wrestling pedigree would probably do him wonders against guys who aren’t good enough to take him down on any planet. But he loves to stand and throw wild strikes because it’s worked so for in his entire career. The Brunson fight was a great indicator of the kind of fighter Romero will never stop being: who cares about winning rounds, just go for crazy knockouts as often as possible despite having every advantage in one specific area.
He lives by the sword and so far hasn’t died by it since he dropped to middleweight.
It’s kind of hilarious, in an MMA sort of way, that someone who has a great wrestling background and chops like Romero opts to throw strikes and seemingly refuses to engage in any sort of grinding wrestling affair. As a fan I can appreciate it, because exciting fights are better than lay & pray, but at some point you have to wonder when this will backfire on Romero. Not if. When.
Without that late finish of Brunson he most likely would’ve lost that fight. And that’s the sort of game plan you can expect Brad Tavares to work with for this fight. His key to winning is mainly to avoid the big explosive finish of Romero, sticking and moving on his feet while working for the takedown when Romero tries to do something that puts him in a bad spot. Tavares would get killed in a straight wrestling match, of course, but in MMA wrestling Romero has proven to have suspect takedown defense because of his desire to go for the high impact, high intensity type of stuff that has generally resulted in finishes for him.
Tavares can win by taking this the distance and exploiting Romero’s questionable at best Fight IQ. The key is to not get into wild scraps with him, work a solid game plan and keep Romero from utilizing his one strength by keeping him throwing wild (and missing).
Why it matters – Tavares is quietly putting together a Matt Brown type win streak right now and a win here puts him in the title picture sooner than later in a fairly weak division. He’d have six wins in a row, more than anyone in the division, and that’ll earn him a date with a title shot on the line. Romero represents the first big step up in competition in some time for him and a win here, particularly if he manages to get a finish, could propel him into the sort of deep waters the UFC likes to promote TUF as being there to sort through.
Romero is arguably closer to a title shot than Tavares, despite a thinner resume, because of how exciting his fights tend to be. The UFC rewards guys who are exciting and get finishes quicker than the grindy type like Tavares. Throw in Romero’s Olympic pedigree and you’ve got a tailor made matchup once the title triangle picture involving Machida/Belfort/Weidman clears itself up. While Romero would hardly be favored against either of the three he could have a fight of the year candidate against any of them. A win here, especially if he has another crazy finish, puts him in a title eliminator without much of a problem or justification. He’s on the wrong side of 30 and his athletic prime is over. Romero’s time as an elite athlete is over … but he’s still so far ahead of the curve that he might be able to be competitive with the elites of the division.
Prediction – Romero
