Two UFC cards in one week, one of them on terrestrial television, with a PPV a week from Saturday you say? Six years ago I’d be screaming about how awesome this was, like most fans, and in 2014 you get a ton of complaints about too many UFC cards, et al, on top of the substantial amount of MMA already out there. But you really can’t complain about Saturday’s UFC card as it’s one of the more stacked UFC on Fox cards in some time. Every fight on the main card has potential title implications in the near future and the undercard is stacked to an insane degree.
Throw in a Blackhawks game at 2pm against the Blues in the playoffs and I probably won’t be leaving my couch for a while. No it’s time to predict what’s going to happen on tonight’s main card.
Brad Tavares vs. Yoel Romero
I like Yoel Romero in this … and picked him in my preview of the fight. The problem is that I’m not crazy confident in his ability to finish overcoming what’s becoming his trademark: low fight IQ. Romero really wants to finish guys in cool, awesome, bonus getting ways so often that he’s almost lost inside the UFC because of it.
The Brunson fight was a great barometer of what happens when Romero starts to think he’s fighting to look the coolest and not prize-fighting. Eventually it’s going to bite him in the ass and part of me wouldn’t be surprised if Brad freakin’ Tavares is the guy who gives Romero his first defeat in the UFC.
Tavares is a guy who’s managed to pull a Matt Brown, stringing together a ton of wins under the radar and getting himself mentioned as a fringe member of the title mix by default because of it. He doesn’t look like an elite fighter … but a win here and it’ll be six in a row. Tavares with a win has to be put into the title mix; six wins in a row and getting another outlier in the Top 10 wouldn’t feel right.
I like Romero … but don’t be shocked if Tavares grinds out a win here.
Prediction – Romero
Donald Cerrone vs. Edson Barboza
Donald Cerrone has the talent to hold the UFC world title at some point in the immediate future. There’s nothing he can’t do in the cage and he combines all the things you’d want in a champion: slick style, killer finishing streak and the ability to talk his way into a fight. It’s just he hasn’t quite shown it in the UFC yet … he’s gone from looking like an absolute killer on the rise to being … well … just another another guy. Crazy enough a guy who thoroughly beat him (Rafael Dos Anjos) is on the undercard and he’s third from the top.
He’s shown some grit in his last two fights, both finish victories, and it looks like he’s back on truck. The key to this fight will be his ability to apply pressure. Barboza doesn’t do well when a fighter presses him and doesn’t allow him to get his feet settled. Cerrone can duplicate what Jamie Varner did by following that game plan … but Cerrone is an interesting cat in the cage sometime. I like him in the fight … but Barboza’s leg kicks are something special. A win here for either guy gets them into the title mix sooner than later.
I like the “Cowboy” in this one … when he gets on a streak, career wise, he tends to get fairly far into it before a setback. If there ever was a time for him to turn that corner and show that elite gear he’s always looked like he had, but never showed, it’s now.
Prediction – Cerrone
Miesha Tate vs. Liz Carmouche
With a combined 1-3 record in the Octagon, including two submission losses to Ronda Rousey, this is an odd duck for a main card fight much less the co-main event of the evening. My guess if Fox/UFC officials think Miesha’s name value from the last season of TUF and the Ronda Rousey fight mean a number of viewers will be turning in. Nurmagomedov/Dos Anjos feels better for this slot instead of Rousey’s last two victims … but this has the makings of a great fight. Someone’s “0” in the Octagon has got to go now, it seems.
Carmouche is a tough out and I think she wants this more than Tate. Tate’s a tough fighter but she took time off after her last Strikeforce fight, her head not in the game, and fought fairly poorly against Cat Zingano. Zingano’s injury is the only reason she got Ronda again … and maybe that fight was the best we’ll ever see her. Rousey took everything Tate had, as Tate fought the best fight she could, and still dominated most of the fight and tapped her. How Tate responds to that loss is going to be telling. If she wants that third crack at the apple, if she wants Rousey one more time, then she has to pull off a Uriah Faber type streak right now. And I don’t think she has it in here.
Prediction – Carmouche
Fabricio Werdum vs. Travis Browne
This is a potentially wild fight between one of the resident veterans of the division and the next big prospect. Browne has looked like a world beater in his past couple fights, stopping Josh Barnett with a battery of elbows most recently, and has all the tools to confidently step into the cage with Cain Velasquez. Werdum has gone from being a credible striker with an elite submission game to being a complete fighter, rounding out his striking game significantly. He may not have fought as often as Browne has in the past year but Werdum has drastically improved from his win over Roy Nelson to his submission victory over Big Nog.
A huge factor is going to be Werdum’s time away from the cage. He hasn’t shown cage rust before … but there’s a first time for everything. Browne’s a tough out but other fighters have made it before. Browne’s a 2-1 favorite but I like the underdog in this fight. I think Werdum stands with Browne just enough to drag him to the ground, where he gets the tap. Werdum has dealt with power strikers before and I think his veteran moxie works for him here. Browne looks ready to be a title contender … but I am not sure if he’s ready right now.
Prediction – Werdum
