UFC 172 is headlined by Jon Jones looking to defend his title yet again, this time against slugger Glover Teixeira. Also on the main card are Jim Miller and Yancy Medeiros. Miller, a UFC veteran, looks to build on his success after a submission win against Fabricio Camoes. Medeiros meanwhile, tested positive for marijuana after flooring Yves Edwards, which leaves him at 0-1 in the UFC with one No Contest. He’ll look to right the ship against the very tough and crafty Miller.
Fighter Summary
Yancy Medeiros (9-1 overall, 0-1 UFC)
Strengths: KO power, heavy hands
Weaknesses: Relatively inexperienced
Jim Miller (23-4 overall, 12-3 UFC)
Strengths: Sneaky subs, grappling, tough grinder
Weaknesses: A bit undersized
Fight Breakdown – A classic case of striker vs. grappler. That’s becoming more and more rare in MMA today, but if you were to label each fighter, Medeiros would certainly be a striker and Miller would be a grappler. Medeiros has 6 out of 9 wins by KO and most of those are from punches. He’s got heavy hands and dangerous power, and he’s going to have some size on Miller. Miller on the other hand, wins most of his fights by submission and decision. He doesn’t have huge power in his strikes, but he excels in setting up submissions and catching opponents off guard.
Expect “The Kid” to come out and get a feel for Miller’s striking, his movement and how hard he hits. Once he gets a feel for Miller and sizes him up, he’s going to get more comfortable and start looking for openings to attack with purpose. In other words, he’s going to throw full power and try to put Miller down.
That means Miller has to do two things. First, he has to throw a high volume of strikes and he has to vary them as well. All hands, just jabs and hooks, is not going to be enough. Miller has never been a one punch, knock-em-down kind of guy. It’s very unlikely that he tags Medeiros hard enough to stun him and finish him on the feet. Unlikely, but still possible. What’s more likely is that he distracts him enough to get this thing down to the ground and find a way to submit him.
That’s the second thing he has to do. While we haven’t really seen Medeiros against top shelf competition enough to know just how good his striking is, we do know that he KO’d Yves Edwards in under 3 minutes. That’s not saying a whole lot because Edwards is 1-3 with that no contest in his last 5 fights, but at least we know Medeiros is a capable striker. Miller is a decent striker, but his striking isn’t what wins him fights. So look for Miller to get inside Medeiros’ defenses and trip him up or drag him down to the ground.
Once there, Medeiros better show some excellent ground defense in terms of both striking and submission defense. Miller is going to pursue every possible avenue for a submission, and you’ll see his trademark mix of strikes to the head and body, and changing this body position to set up a submission. He doesn’t even need to sink one in, if Miller has Yancy on his back the whole time, looking for a sub, you can bet he’ll win if it goes to the cards. That’s not what Medeiros wants.
Key to Victory: Can Medeiros stay on his feet?
The key to this fight is simple. If Medeiros can keep his feet, he has an infinitely better chance of winning. Not to say that he can’t win if he gets taken down or put on his back, but the odds would be better if he’s up and about. Better yet, taking Miller down and beating on him would show a lot, but very few people are capable of doing that. The last guy to do it was Benson Henderson. If you hear Medeiros’ corner telling him to stay off the cage and on his feet between rounds and throughout the fight, chances are Miller is already winning.
Why It Matters – Miller was in title contention not too long ago, right before he ran into Benson Henderson and Nate Diaz. He’s a top level fighter, but maybe not athletic or big enough to really stand out amongst the best of the lightweight division. But he’s only got 4 losses on his record, and three of them were in the UFC against champions and title contenders. Guys like that eventually end up fighting for a title themselves, if they haven’t already. Miller just needs to string together a nice streak to keep up with some of these up and coming fighters in the LW division. That starts with beating Yancy Medeiros.
Medeiros needs a big win here, and he needs it yesterday. After his last win was overturned to NC, he’s now 0-1. Miller is not exactly a bounce back fight. In fact, it says a lot about what the UFC thinks about Medeiros, because Miller is almost unarguably the toughest and most experienced opponent Medeiros will have ever faced. Testing positive for pot looks bad on the Win/Loss record, but it doesn’t really mar a fighter from the perspective of other fighters and fans. Coincidentally, Miller’s last loss was to Pat Healy, who also tested positive for marijuana. Medeiros has a chance to move on from that blemish and realize his potential, but taking on Jim Miller is no easy task. Look for the veteran to rely on his experience and savvy to earn the W.
Prediction – Miller
