Two top middleweights face off in the third fight on the main card of UFC 172, headlined by Jon Jones vs. Glover Teixeira. Former Strikeforce champion Luke Rockhold, who recently picked up his first win this past January with a finish of Costas Philippou, meets Tim Boetsch, who bounced back form a two fight skid to win a split decision over C.B. Dollaway.
Fighter Summary
Tim Boetsch (17-6 overall, 6-3 UFC)
Strengths: Strength, powerful punches, underrated submissions
Weaknesses: Not the most technical fighter
Luke Rockhold (11-2 overall, 1-1 UFC)
Strengths: Powerful strikes, good cardio, well rounded
Weaknesses: Striking defense
Fight Breakdown – These two guys aren’t afraid to throw down. It’d be mildly surprising to see this one go to a decision, but then again, they’re both good enough to survive three rounds against the other.
For Rockhold, it’s all about keeping the distance until he wants to close it. He has to dictate where the fight takes place and at what speed. Getting in close and against the cage is to Boetsch’s benefit, where “The Barbarian” can let loose and connect with power shots. Rockhold is going to be the quicker and more athletic fighter, and if he fights smart and to the best of his abilities, he’s going to put on a clinic. He should be constantly moving and circling away from Boetsch, dictating the fight to him and not the other way around. Boetsch will have to be wary of Rockhold’s strikes, especially those body kicks after what he did to Costas Philippou. Rockhold has the skills to tag Boetsch at will, but Boetsch is a tough out and can turn the tide at any second, so he’ll have to be careful in not getting too overconfident.
Boetsch has to be the bully. He has to shove Rockhold around and put him where he wants him, and if Rockhold escapes and moves away, Boetsch has to force the issue. Letting Rockhold find his rhythm and dance around him all night would look like a fox against a wounded bear. Boetsch has some serious power and at times fights with incredible ferocity, but that’s exactly what can get him into trouble against Rockhold. Don’t let Rockhold’s loss to Vitor Belfort fool you. He’s a former Strikeforce champion and an elite fighter. If Boetsch makes bad decisions, doesn’t adjust well or fights amateurish, Rockhold is going to take full advantage and exploit him.
Boetsch has to make this thing ugly. If it’s essentially a three round striking demonstration, chances are Rockhold gets the better of it. Boetsch isn’t going to win this by pure boxing and kick boxing. He needs to get inside Rockhold’s guard, grind him up against the cage and soften him up with dirty boxing. That’s exactly the kind of fight Rockhold wants to avoid, although he could still win that way. But that would be fighting on Boetsch’s terms and he can’t let that happen.
Key to Victory: Can Boetsch lock down Rockhold?
Boetsch’s best chance to win would be to turn this into the kind of fight that fans boo. He has to keep Rockhold locked up in the clinch for the majority of the fight. He might not do much damage or advance position too much, but it’s better than getting picked apart by Rockhold in the standup. If Boetsch is able to consistently engage with Rockhold and keep him backed up against the cage, he increases his chances of winning exponentially. But if Rockhold is able to minimize those situations and stay away from him, it’s going to be a long night for Boetsch.
Why It Matters – Rockhold was expected to challenge Anderson Silva after the Strikeforce buyout, until he ran into Vitor Belfort right in the middle of his recent tear. It was Rockhold’s first fight in the UFC and it hurt his title hopes a ton. Now Belfort is almost guaranteed a shot before Rockhold, no matter what Rockhold does and as long as Belfort doesn’t screw it up and somehow gets a TRT exemption. A lot of things have to go right for Belfort to get the next shot, but even if he doesn’t, Lyoto Machida and Jacare Souza both have solid claims to challenging. Rockhold is almost right up there with them, but he needs this win over Boetsch to solidify himself. He’s 1-1 in the UFC and a finish over Costas Philippou is impressive, but not nearly enough to put him in a title fight. Winning this one may do just enough to get him into a title eliminator.
Boetsch is being gifted a shot here, but at the same time it’s also a bit of a sacrificial lamb type of fight. He’s got an opportunity to shock some people by beating someone as good and highly ranked as Rockhold. But it’s a huge jump up in competition and Boetsch has never handled that well. To this day, his signature win is his comeback victory over Yushin Okami, a fight that Okami was dominating. Since then, he’s won a split decision, lost two in a row and won another split. Not exactly the type of streak you want to have going into a fight against Rockhold, especially with the quality of fighters being released by the UFC these days. Boetsch could use this win in a huge way, but it just doesn’t seem likely to happen unless something goes terribly wrong for Rockhold.
Prediction – Rockhold
