Jon Jones came back from the fight of his life against Alexander Gustafsson to just absolutely destroy Glover Teixiera, whom plenty of people posited as yet another man to bring down the reign of the man known as “Bones.” A five round trashing, beating Glover at his own game of clinch work against the cage, was masterful and sets up would should be the biggest fight of 2014 in his rematch against Alexander Gustafsson. Now it’s time to play Joe Silva & Sean Shelby with the most intriguing winners (and losers) from Saturday’s card.
Winners
Jon Jones vs. Alexander Gustafsson – We knew this going in, of course, and it feels so much bigger now. Someone once wrote about how some time away from one another wouldn’t be the best idea as an immediate rematch … and now it feels bigger with some time away as opposed to doing it right away. The war of words between the two has started and there’s genuine intrigue now; it feels like the big fight it should be.
Gustafsson getting an emphatic win on a Fight Pass card, coupled with Jones mauling Teixiera, now gives us the most intriguing fight of both men’s careers. Did Gustafsson fight the perfect fight and lose? Or does he have the knack that no one else does against Jon Jones? It now instantly feels bigger because there’s been enough time separating both fighters from their instant classic last year. No other fight makes sense for Jones right now. If Gustafsson gets hurt for an extended period of time Daniel Cormier is up next with a win over Dan Henderson … but I imagine it’d have to be a substantial injury requiring a year off for anyone to pass the Swede on the contender chain right now.
Luke Rockhold vs. the winner of Mousasi/Munoz – Rockhold wants Tim Kennedy and/or Michael Bisping, of course, but one’s a rematch and the other really doesn’t make sense right now. Vitor Belfort was also called out by the AKA team member but I think he gets his title shot after the Weidman/Machida battle in July. Rockhold is in an odd spot in that he’s earned the right to be one fight away from a title shot but everyone is busy or a rematch. It makes for an interesting conundrum as rematches tend to be avoided unless you can raise the stakes in the UFC.
Rockhold vs. the Mousasi/Munoz would winner be a good title eliminator and is in the next month, so the scheduling does make reasonable sense. Yoel Romero could make for a wild, fun fight as well … but I don’t the UFC wants to eliminate a contender so soon between them. Thales Leites would be a surprise pick but not all that shocking … but would come off as closer to a tune up/stay busy fight than anything else. Leites is ranked significantly lower and is a great story but at some point he most likely will fail against a genuine contender. The UFC likes new matchups and the problem is that Rockhold has fought a bunch of guys of note like Jacare Souza and Tim Kennedy already; they may have been Strikeforce matchups but the UFC likes new instead of old unless it’s for a title.
Jim Miller vs. Donald Cerrone – This fight just smells like violence. You can feel it in the air if they announced Miller/Cerrone … and neither guy would reject it, either. Jim Miller is in a great spot as he’s a legit top 10 talent who could make a run … but probably won’t. He’s never dull and is a great heat check guy at the highest levels of the division. Cerrone with a win moves into title contention, potentially, as well. Khabib Nurmagomedov could be in this slot. The problem is that we’re two TUF cycles away from Melendez/Pettis being done and thus the lightweight division is in stasis right now.
Josh Thomson could be in this slot and if Rustam Khabilov beats Benson Henderson he could be in this slot too. Miller is such a great matchup for anyone in the Top 15 that you can slot him in almost anywhere. The one downside is that he’s been around for so long, and has beaten so many guys, that fresh matchups can often times be a difficult task to find for him. Miller’s also a big enough name to justify a main card slot and good enough that nearly anyone in the Top 10 he hasn’t faced can be thrown to him as well. Crazy to think the guy Pat Healy mauled a year ago is now in pole position and Healy himself is wondering if he gets to fight in the UFC again.
Anthony Johnson vs. the winner of Ryan Bader/Rafael Cavalcante – Rumble looked like a Top 5 light heavyweight against Phil Davis. He destroyed Phil Davis and looked like the elite fighter in that matchup despite what the rankings said. I will profoundly admit that I was wrong in not thinking Johnson was as good as he proved himself to be. The problem is that all the top guys have fights and the one guy who’d make for the best matchup is Rashad Evans … his good friend and training partner. The winner of Bader/Feijao might make the best sense at this point as it’ll keep him busy, give him a great fight and win. Shogun Rua could make sense in this slot and if Dan Henderson upsets Daniel Cormier that’d be another matchup as well.
Takanori Gomi vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov – Gomi doesn’t want up and comers anymore, it seems, and wants someone elite. Gomi, who was the best lightweight in the world for a long time, doesn’t have long in the UFC and thus wants a run at the top. No one wants Khabib, either, and frankly it’d be a great (if one sided) fight. Ross Pearson, if he gets past Diego Sanchez, could be in this slot.
Myles Jury would make for a good fit here, as well, if the UFC indulges Gomi on his death wish of an elite guy. Most likely he gets someone like Michael Chiesa, a young prospect needing a heat check guy. That’s what Gomi is right now; a heat check guy who once was the best in the world. He’ll be on the Japan card this fall in a big role, as denoting his status there, so I can imagine that they might feed him someone he should beat as well. Gomi is a name and a talent … but he’s past his prime. Anyone high enough on the food chain is going to defeat him fairly soundly.
Joseph Benavidez vs. the loser of Ian McCall/Brad Pickett – Benavidez is the best flyweight in the world that isn’t named Demetrious Johnson. He has two losses to him, as well, the most recent an emphatic lamping. So right now he needs to get 4-6 wins, or for “Mighty Mouse” to lose, before he’ll be back in the picture again. He can’t go up, as well, as he’s had two title losses at bantamweight as well. He’s in MMA Hell at this point … he’s a Top 10 Pound For Pound fighter but he’s got nearly as many losses as Urijah Faber does in two weight classes. At bantamweight you’d have to rank him in the Top 5 right now, too.
So what do you do? You give him name guys who are tough and slowly let him get a bunch of wins and finishes under his belt. He has to do what Urijah Faber did and just keep winning, and keep getting finishes, before the third time he’ll fight for the flyweight title happens.
Max Holloway vs. the winner of Diego Brandao/Brian Ortega – Holloway pulled off a great win against a great talent he wasn’t expected to defeat. We tend to forget that he’s a young guy with a ton of UFC experience under his belt and really looked like he’s starting to put it together now. The winner of Brandao/Ortega is a solid (but not gigantic) step up for him.
Bethe Correia vs. Shayna Baszler – Correia did a great taunt of Ronda Rousey and her “Four Horsewomen” at the end of the Duke fight. Baszler just pulled out of a fight and depending on her injury would make for an interesting (and profoundly stupid) marketing point. Correia picking off Ronda’s buddies until it’s just her and the champ. Dumber angles have been sold by the UFC over the years. At this point the Brazilian talent looked good enough to beat a profoundly over-ranked fighter in Duke … but didn’t do so in any spectacular or interesting fashion.
At this point Correia is maybe one-two wins from a title shot because of how shallow the women’s bantamweight division is at this point. Rousey breaks her arm in the first, of course, but Correia isn’t far from getting the shot at proving everyone wrong.
Losers
Glover Teixiera vs. the loser of Daniel Cormier/Dan Henderson – Glover took a shellacking from the champion and a rematch isn’t going to be marketable unless he has a bunch of wins under his belt. The loser of Cormier/Henderson is going to be in the same spot and would make for a nice rebound match between all three fighters. Shogun Rua makes sense in this slot, too. Glover’s on the wrong side of 30 and this was probably his only chance to hold a UFC title … but in a year he could challenge again depending on what he does after this loss.
He showed against Jon Jones that Jones is a transcendent talent and Glover is just a great one. Glover’s a top five guy in the division … he just showed that right now there’s still a huge gap between Jon Jones and the rest of the division if your name isn’t Alexander Gustafsson. Jones is a talent you will talk to your kids about, if they’re into MMA, as he’s a once in a generation level talent. Glover would’ve been champion if he’d gotten to the UFC earlier in his career, I think, as he has that talent. And if Jones moves up to heavyweight sooner than later he’ll be in the title picture just as quickly.
That’s not a bad thing, as he could wind up in the same spot that Jon Fitch was at welterweight for years, but as long as Jones has that title he won’t sniff holding it again. I wouldn’t be surprised if Anthony Johnson was set up as a rebound for him, as well. Glover’s such a unique talent that any number of guys would make for a good matchup.
Phil Davis vs. Shogun Rua – Davis took a beating from Anthony Johnson and didn’t look like a Top 5 caliber light heavyweight. Johnson did … but Davis’s ceiling was establishing in this fight. He’s a “Doorman to the Title” for lack of a better term, the highest level gatekeeper you can be; he’s never going to be better than a guy in the middle of a Top 10 list, and a short notice title challenger of credibility, but he doesn’t have it in him to be an elite fighter. I’m talking Top 5 level guy, which is usually what elite should be in anything. “Mr. Wonderful” has all the tools to be a UFC champion … but he just doesn’t have that final thing that a guy like Rumble Johnson does.
He’s just outside that hemisphere of being an elite light heavyweight. This fight emphasized what the Rashad Evans fight showed; he has all of the athletic tools but if he can’t get a takedown he won’t win a fight. His striking hasn’t developed that far and probably never will; he’s elite on the ground, arguably one of the best in the division, but his striking isn’t good enough to get him beyond that level. His striking has gotten better … but it’s not good enough to win him a fight against anyone with high enough talent to stop him from getting the takedown. And at this point in his career it’s arguable it’ll never be.
The question Phil Davis has to answer right now is can he be elite. So far the evidence says no … he can be very good, and borderline great, but never cross that final wire and turn on “Elite Mode” … it’s right after “Beast Mode” in the MMA fighter manual. Everything about him says he should, and he has an insane amount of potential, but so far it looks like his ceiling is being that Frank Trigg level guy who’s very good for a long time but never great.
Tim Boetsch vs. Brad Tavares – Tim Boetsch’s ceiling is set at this point. He’s a guy … a very good guy, but a gatekeeper to the Top 10 at the worst and a bottom tier Top 10 guy at best. But he’ll never be elite and never contend for a title unless it’s on some fluke. Super nice guy, and a great story, but Boetsch’s run in the UFC has peaked. He doesn’t have that gear to turn it up a notch and become a title contender. Nothing wrong with it, as he can last in the UFC for a while being a top tier heat check guy, but at this point Boetsch’s career is slightly past its peak. Tavares showed the same thing against Yoel Romero and it would make for a solid undercard fight. The loser of Costas Philippou/Lorenz Larkin makes sense in this slot as well.
Tim Elliott vs. the loser of Scott Jorgensen/Danny Martinez – Elliott nearly took a round from the second best flyweight in the world before getting caught. That says a lot about him. Elliott’s style makes him an interesting fighter in the division … but maybe not someone who’ll be able to get into contention. He’s just about to fall out of the Top 10, rankings wise, but isn’t far from rebounding back into it. The Jorgensen/Martinez loser makes a ton of sense.
Charlie Brenneman vs. Isaac Vallie-Flagg – Brennenan and IVF are both on that cusp of being cut from the UFC. I can see them both getting their walking papers sometime int he next 48 hours, too. But if they both stick around, and both did have excellent fights, they’d make for a great loser leaves the UFC fight on Fight Pass sometime. Brenneman’s probably lately has that he’ll come out looking fairly decent … and then get finished in impressive fashion. I think it’s time for him for him to go back to teaching high school Spanish … but he also took that first round and looked like the grapple heavy wrestle that grounded Rick Story’s career on 24 hours notice, too. I think he gets a chance to see if he still has it again … but at the same time should he?
I’d advise against it … and I’m sure Zuffa will have a talk with him, too, about it. But Brenneman is just a guy who’s getting violently knocked out regularly. That’s not good.
