The long awaited (at least for some) debut of Tito Ortiz under the Bellator banner finally arrives this Saturday at Bellator 120 in Southaven, Mississippi. Ortiz meets current Bellator Middleweight champion Alexander Shlemenko in a light-heavyweight feature bout (no title ramifications). The card is headlined by the grudge match between Rampage Jackson and Bellator mainstay Muhammed Lawal.
Fighter Summary
Tito Ortiz (16-11 overall, UFC)
Strengths: Veteran savvy, confidence
Weaknesses: Sheer age, wear and tear
Alexander Shlemenko (50-7 overall, 4-0 Bellator)
Strengths: KO power, good submissions
Weaknesses: Lack of elite opponents
Fight Breakdown – This one could get real ugly, real fast. Shlemenko is the Bellator Middleweight Champion. He hasn’t lost in over three years. He’s won his last 13 fights and finished 8 of them. Ortiz hasn’t even fought in close to two years. He’s lost his last three fights and seven out of his last nine. He’s coming off of an injury and meets an elite and experienced fighter in Shlemenko for his first fight back. Unless Ortiz pulls a rabbit out of a hat, meaning he pulls off the world’s greatest magic trick, we’re likely going to see this fight ending in a stoppage.
How that can happen is anyone’s guess, but the most likely scenario is Shlemenko bullies Ortiz around and eventually hurts him with some big punches to the head and/or body. Don’t be surprised to see Shlemenko ragdoll Ortiz and really take it to him. He will probably respect Tito at first and get a feel for how fast and strong he is, and when they stack up against each other, Shlemenko is going to have the advantages. That’s when he’s going to turn it up and become just the latest fighter to add Ortiz to his victim list.
Ortiz has one shot at this. He needs to take Shlemenko down and keep him there, by either employing that vicious ground and pound of old, or setting up a submission. Ortiz is no pushover and he has a ton of tricks in his arsenal, so Shlemenko should be anything but reckless. Shlemenko has over 50 fights to his name, so he’s a smart guy and he’ll fight with a true veteran’s savvy. That presents problems for Ortiz, who even in his prime never had that one punch or kick KO power, or an elite Jiu Jitsu game. What Ortiz did have was that signature version of nasty ground and pound. Tito was great at taking guys down and punishing them. If he could do that, great. But key word there: was. Ortiz, as stated, hasn’t actually won a fight in two years and that lone win was sandwiched by losing streaks.
Now Ortiz has always been tough and durable, so don’t be surprised to see him survive a round. But when it comes down to it, it’s more a question of when Ortiz will break, not if.
Key to Victory: Can Ortiz turn back the clock?
If Ortiz has somehow found a way to pull a Dan Henderson or Vitor Belfort, and manages to look like the Tito Ortiz of eight years ago, this fight will be very competitive and Tito could easily win it. But if he looks like the same Tito that we’ve seen in his recent fights, it’ll be more of the same: a younger, very well-rounded and talented opponent beating up on Ortiz until the fight is stopped or the final bell rings.
Ortiz will be winning this fight is he is the one controlling Shlemenko against the cage, and not the other way around. Or if he manages to earn top control and keep it. Anything other than that pretty much means Shlemenko has the upper hand.
Why It Matters – Will this be Tito Ortiz’ last fight? And win, lose or draw, when will he hang them up? The guy is a surefire hall of famer and has had one hell of a career. His feuds with Ken Shamrock and Chuck Liddell helped propel MMA to where they are today. He’s always been a polarizing figure and his presence has been gigantic throughout his career.
But Ortiz has lost seven of his past nine fights, with one win and one draw. If ever a fighter fought past his prime and long past the time he should have retired, it is Tito Ortiz. He’s never had that one punch thunder of Dan Henderson, or those explosive kicks of Vitor Belfort. Those guys still have it, but most guys around Ortiz’ age just don’t. Ortiz is most famous for his feuds with Shamrock and Liddell, as well as that awesome grave-digger celebration, while guys like Henderson and Belfort are still kicking ass and taking names.
Athletes always speak about the difficulty of knowing when to retire, or knowing that it is time but actually going through with it. Many athletes play past their prime and just want that “one more win”. Sometimes it ends up working out, but mostly we see guys fade and perform at a level below what we expected of them in the past. Ortiz is in that exact situation. A hard loss here would hopefully push Ortiz past that brink and ease him into a well deserved retirement. He could still train and be around fighting, and finding a job as a commentator/analyst should be no problem at all with his charisma.
For Shlemenko, this fight gives him a chance to win against a big name, albeit the luster of that name has certainly faded. It’s not at middleweight, so his title is safe and waiting for him to defend after this match. He gets to welcome a living semi-legend to Bellator and do the honors. Losing would be a relatively big upset, but his title would still be there so he is essentially playing with house money. Look for him to take full advantage of the opportunity and win this fight impressively.
Prediction – Shlemenko
