UFC Fight Night comes to Berlin, Germany this Saturday, on a card headlined by Mark Munoz vs. Gegard Mousasi. Kicking off the main card are two fresh faces to the UFC’s featherweight division. Tom Niinimaki, with a split decision win in his UFC debut, meets late replacement Niklas Backstrom, who will be making his debut in the Octagon on fight night.
Fighter Summary
Niklas Backstrom (7-0 overall, 0-0 UFC)
Strengths: Striking, reach, size
Weaknesses: Untested
Tom Niinimaki (21-5 overall, 1-0 UFC)
Strengths: Well rounded, good subs
Weaknesses: No notable victories
Fight Breakdown – This is the kind of fight that could end in the first 15 seconds in a brilliant flash from either fighter, or go the distance in a grapple-fest that doesn’t feature much action. Niinimaki is a well-rounded fighter who is fighting only his second fight in the UFC. He won his debut against Rani Yahya in a split decision, but he has 7 KO and 8 submission finishes to his name.
Backstrom is making his own UFC debut, and he’s serving as a late substitution for Thiago Tavares, who pulled out of this fight with an injury. He’s got an impressive record…outside of the big stage. He’s tall for a featherweight, measuring in at six feet, so he’ll have some height and reach that he should look to utilize against Niinimaki. Niinimaki is likely going to look for a submission, whether setting it up by striking or tying up Backstrom to take him down. Backstrom, if he is able, can utilize his size to keep Niinimaki at bay and pick him apart. If he fights a smart fight, he can let Niinimaki swing and miss all night, while moving away just in time to avoid getting tangled up and grappling.
Backstrom is no stranger to grappling, but his bread and butter is in the stand up. Niinimaki will have to close the distance and get in close and dirty. Standing on the perimeter and matching strikes with Backstrom may be somewhat effective and could be detrimental, but neutralizing Backstrom’s reach/height advantage would definitely be effective. Niinimaki would do well to get Backstrom on the ground and keep him on his back. He also has to be careful though, because Backstrom could turn the tide against him and Niinimaki does not want Backstrom poised above him, ready to rain down punches and elbows. He could use his length and reach to put the hurt on Niinimaki, and Backstrom has shown in his previous fights that he does have that kind of accuracy and power.
Key to Victory: Who dictates where the fight takes place?
If Niinimaki is able to close the gap at will and get past Backstrom’s defenses, we’ll likely see a grind-out or submission win for “Stoneface”. But if Backstrom is able to keep Niinimaki backing up and eating a steady diet of jabs and kicks, it will be much more interesting and the fight should favor Backstrom. Whoever wins the battle of the spacing will likely end up winning the fight.
Why It Matters – “Stoneface” didn’t exactly set the MMA or UFC world on fire in his debut. A split decision is always going to be debated, so even though he is 1-0 in the Octagon so far, it’s not as good a 1-0 as say someone who flattens his opponent or finishes the fight impressively. He could use a big win over Backstrom here and there is added pressure now. He may not have been the favorite against his original opponent Tavares, but he will be against Backstrom. He’s supposed to win this fight. Now the expectations are higher and losing here would hurt his standing a lot. He’d be losing on the heels of a close split decision, and losing to a guy making his UFC debut. Not a good look.
Backstrom is playing with house money for this fight. He’s fighting for the first time in the Octagon, and he’s doing it on short notice as a late replacement. That automatically gets him some bonus points and that means he has a whole lot to gain with not much to lose. He’s not expected to win this fight. If he loses, well, he was supposed to. But if he wins, well, he just pulled off an upset against a more experienced fighter, and he did it as a late sub. Extra impressive. It’s more of a win-win here than a win-lose. With that said, he can take a few more risks and leave a little more out there than he normally would. He should take advantage of this opportunity and make the most of it, but odds are he hasn’t fought someone at the level of Niinimaki. He may pull off the upset, but he probably won’t.
Prediction – Niinimaki
