This has always been my favorite thing to write every year, my Oscar prediction article. It’s a great way to encapsulate the year in film, and I enjoy seeing how many categories I can correctly predict. This year, I was able to see 54/62 of the nominated films. The ones I missed: Elle, I Am Not Your Negro, Land of Mine, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, The Salesman, Toni Erdmann, and Watani: My Homeland.
Best Picture
The Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, Hidden Figures, La La Land, Lion, Manchester by the Sea, and Moonlight
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Moonlight
Who Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Conspicuously Absent: Jackie
Best Director
The Nominees: Denis Villeneuve (Arrival), Mel Gibson (Hacksaw Ridge), Damien Chazelle (La La Land), Kenneth Lonergan (Manchester by the Sea), and Barry Jenkins (Moonlight)
Who Will Win: Damien Chazelle
Spoiler: Barry Jenkins
Who Should Win: Barry Jenkins
Conspicuously Absent: David Mackenzie (Hell or High Water)
Best Actor
The Nominees: Casey Affleck (Manchester by the Sea), Andrew Garfield (Hacksaw Ridge), Ryan Gosling (La La Land), Viggo Mortensen (Captain Fantastic), and Denzel Washington (Fences)
Who Will Win: Casey Affleck
Spoiler: Denzel Washington
Who Should Win: Casey Affleck
Conspicuously Absent: Joel Edgerton (Loving)
Best Actress
The Nominees: Isabelle Huppert (Elle), Ruth Negga (Loving), Natalie Portman (Jackie), Emma Stone (La La Land), and Meryl Streep (Florence Foster Jenkins)
Who Will Win: Emma Stone
Spoiler: Isabelle Huppert
Who Should Win: Emma Stone
Conspicuously Absent: Amy Adams (Arrival)
Best Supporting Actor
The Nominees: Mahershala Ali (Moonlight), Jeff Bridges (Hell or High Water), Lucas Hedges (Manchester by the Sea), Dev Patel (Lion), and Michael Shannon (Nocturnal Animals)
Who Will Win: Mahershala Ali
Spoiler: Jeff Bridges
Who Should Win: Mahershala Ali
Conspicuously Absent: Ralph Fiennes (A Bigger Splash)
Best Supporting Actress
The Nominees: Viola Davis (Fences), Naomie Harris (Moonlight), Nicole Kidman (Lion), Octavia Spencer (Hidden Figures), and Michelle Williams (Manchester by the Sea)
Who Will Win: Viola Davis
Spoiler: Michelle Williams
Who Should Win: Viola Davis
Conspicuously Absent: Greta Gerwig (20th Century Women)
Best Original Screenplay
The Nominees: Hell or High Water, La La Land, The Lobster, Manchester by the Sea, and 20th Century Women
Who Will Win: Manchester by the Sea
Spoiler: La La Land
Who Should Win: Manchester by the Sea
Conspicuously Absent: Zootopia
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Nominees: Arrival, Fences, Hidden Figures, Lion, and Moonlight
Who Will Win: Moonlight
Spoiler: Fences
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Conspicuously Absent: Nocturnal Animals
Best Animated Feature Film
The Nominees: Kubo and the Two Strings, Moana, My Life as a Zucchini, The Red Turtle, and Zootopia
Who Will Win: Zootopia
Spoiler: Kubo and the Two Strings
Who Should Win: Zootopia
Conspicuously Absent: The Little Prince
Best Foreign Language Film
The Nominees: Land of Mine (Denmark), A Man Called Ove (Sweden), The Salesman (Iran), Tanna (Australia), and Toni Erdmann (Germany)
Who Will Win: The Salesman
Spoiler: Toni Erdmann
Who Should Win: Tanna
Conspicuously Absent: N/A
Best Documentary – Feature
The Nominees: Fire at Sea, I Am Not Your Negro, Life, Animated, O.J.: Made in America, and 13th
Who Will Win: O.J.: Made in America
Spoiler: I Am Not Your Negro
Who Should Win: O.J.: Made in America
Conspicuously Absent: Weiner
Best Documentary – Short Subject
The Nominees: Extremis, 4.1 Miles, Joe’s Violin, Watani: My Homeland, and The White Helmets
Who Will Win: The White Helmets
Spoiler: Watani: My Homeland
Who Should Win: The White Helmets
Conspicuously Absent: Frame 394
Best Live Action Short Film
The Nominees: Ennemis intrieurs, La Femme et le TGV, Silent Nights, Sing, and Timecode
Who Will Win: Ennemis intrieurs
Spoiler: Sing
Who Should Win:
Conspicuously Absent: N/A
Best Animated Short Film
The Nominees: Blind Vaysha, Borrowed Time, Pear Cider and Cigarettes, Pearl, and Piper
Who Will Win: Piper
Spoiler: Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Who Should Win: Pear Cider and Cigarettes
Conspicuously Absent: The Head Vanishes
Best Original Score
The Nominees: Jackie, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, and Passengers
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Jackie
Who Should Win: Jackie
Conspicuously Absent: Nocturnal Animals
Best Original Song
The Nominees: Audition (The Fools Who Dream) [La La Land], “Can’t Stop the Feeling!” [Trolls], “City of Stars” [La La Land], “The Empty Chair” [Jim: The James Foley Story], and “How Far I’ll Go” [Moana]
Who Will Win: “City of Stars”
Spoiler: “Audition (The Fools Who Dream)”
Who Should Win: “Can’t Stop the Feeling!”
Conspicuously Absent: “Drive It Like You Stole It” [Sing Street]
Best Sound Editing
The Nominees: Arrival, Deepwater Horizon, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, and Sully
Who Will Win: Hacksaw Ridge
Spoiler: La La Land
Who Should Win: Arrival
Conspicuously Absent: Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Best Sound Mixing
The Nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, La La Land, Rogue One: A Star Wars Story, and 13 Hours: The Secret Soldiers of Benghazi
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Hacksaw Ridge
Who Should Win: La La Land
Conspicuously Absent: Deepwater Horizon
Best Production Design
The Nominees: Arrival, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Hail, Caesar!, La La Land, and Passengers
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them
Who Should Win: Arrival
Conspicuously Absent: The Handmaiden
Best Cinematography
The Nominees: Arrival, La La Land, Lion, Moonlight, and Silence
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Lion
Who Should Win: Arrival
Conspicuously Absent: Nocturnal Animals
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
The Nominees: A Man Called Ove, Star Trek Beyond, and Suicide Squad
Who Will Win: Star Trek Beyond
Spoiler: A Man Called Ove
Who Should Win: Star Trek Beyond
Conspicuously Absent: Deadpool
Best Costume Design
The Nominees: Allied, Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them, Florence Foster Jenkins, Jackie, and La La Land
Who Will Win: Jackie
Spoiler: La La Land
Who Should Win: Jackie
Conspicuously Absent: Kubo & the Two Strings
Best Film Editing
The Nominees: Arrival, Hacksaw Ridge, Hell or High Water, La La Land, and Moonlight
Who Will Win: La La Land
Spoiler: Moonlight
Who Should Win: Moonlight
Conspicuously Absent: Manchester by the Sea
Best Visual Effects
The Nominees: Deepwater Horizon, Doctor Strange, The Jungle Book, Kubo and the Two Strings, and Rogue One: A Star Wars Story
Who Will Win: The Jungle Book
Spoiler: Doctor Strange
Who Should Win: The Jungle Book
Conspicuously Absent: Arrival
